The Road to the 2027 NFL Draft begins with one player every NFL scout will be watching closely: Texas quarterback Arch Manning. If the Longhorns star builds on the way he closed the 2025 season, he could enter next April as the favorite to be selected No. 1 overall.
There is still an entire college football season to play, and NFL team needs will evolve over the coming months. But Manning possesses the size, arm talent, mobility, football IQ, and pedigree that make him the early frontrunner in the race for the top pick.
The biggest question is whether he can consistently play at an elite level without chasing perfection. Can he carve out his own identity instead of simply being compared to Peyton and Eli Manning? Can he silence the "overhyped" narrative by proving the expectations are justified?
Road to the 2027 NFL Draft: Why Arch Manning Why Arch Manning leads the No. 1 overall race
As an early Heisman Trophy candidate and a preseason watch-list selection for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, Manning will be under the microscope every time he takes the field. After the way he finished the 2025 season, expectations have never been higher. His combination of size, arm talent, and mobility gives him traits that differ from both Peyton and Eli Manning and should keep him in a season-long battle with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore for the top spot in the 2027 NFL Draft.
In a loaded 2027 quarterback class featuring prospects like Notre Dame’s C.J. Carr, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, and Miami’s Darian Mensah, Manning's path to the 2027 NFL Draft depends on how he applies lessons learned after a shaky start. If these players excel, what will set Manning apart?
Steve Sarkisian explains Manning's turning point
According to Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, what will set Manning apart is simply being himself. In an appearance on The Herd, Sarkisian was blunt on his assessment of the tale of two halves for the 6-foot-4 talent.
“I think part of it was one, be himself,” Sarkisian said. “I think sometimes, we get into a situation where we try to be something that we’re not or maybe that we’re not yet. The other part of it was, have some fun, man. We play football. We don’t work football.
“I think early in the season, Arch was trying to be so perfect. He was working so hard, he wanted to do everything so right that I think the second half of the season, he just kind of said, ‘Screw it. I’m going to go play.’ When he started to play, you started to see a little bit more of the playmaking, you started to see the energy on the sidelines, you started to see him using his legs a little bit more. I think the team really started to feed off of that.”
In other words, Manning stopped trying to be perfect and simply trusted his instincts. Once he did, the Longhorns looked like one of the top teams in the nation by finishing the season at 5-1. In those six games, he threw for 1,714 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also showed off his mobility inside and outside the pocket by rushing for 206 yards and five touchdowns.
Simply put, he looked like a top NFL prospect, but that didn’t lead him to declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft. It led him back to Texas to build off that performance. Like Moore, there’s some unfinished business at the college football level.
The Road to the 2027 NFL Draft is only beginning, but Manning already controls his own path. If he continues playing with the confidence and freedom he displayed late last season, his combination of size, arm talent, mobility, and football instincts could make him the quarterback every NFL team covets come next April. The journey to becoming the No. 1 overall pick won't be easy, but right now, the road runs straight through Austin.
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