2027 NFL Draft QB rankings reveal a harsh truth beyond Arch Manning and Dante Moore

The 2027 NFL Draft quarterback class is already generating plenty of hype. Todd McShay of The Ringer recently said it "could go down as one of the two or three best quarterback drafts ever," while NFL Mock Draft Database currently has eight quarterbacks carrying consensus first-round grades.

However, we've seen this story before.

At this time last year, many of the same draft analysts were hyping up the 2026 quarterback class. Cade Klubnik was viewed as a potential first-round pick before ultimately falling to the fourth round, while Garrett Nussmeier slid all the way to the seventh round. When it was all said and done, only two quarterbacks were selected in the first round.

The 2027 class could ultimately follow a similar path. While there is legitimate top-end talent, I currently only have two quarterbacks carrying first-round grades entering the season: Dante Moore and Arch Manning. There are also several passers receiving significantly more hype than their tape warrants, including Julian Sayin and Drew Mestemaker, both of whom currently project as Day 3 selections on my board.

Top Player: Dante Moore, Oregon

While most people regard Arch Manning as the top quarterback in the 2027 NFL Draft, the top guy on my board is Oregon’s Dante Moore. In fact, I had Moore rated as the top quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft before he decided to return to school. The reason I am so high on him is because he has all the traits to become a franchise quarterback in the NFL, including elite arm strength. Last season, he made 30 big-time throws, which were tied for the most in the FBS, and he led the nation with a 98.5 passing grade on deep throws according to PFF. He is also an accurate passer who completed 72% of his passes despite his receivers dropping 18 passes last season. In addition, Moore is an impressive athlete who can buy extra time in the pocket and make plays outside of structure. 

Guy I would stand on the table for: CJ Bailey, North Carolina State

Every year, there seems to be a quarterback who flies up NFL Draft boards, including Fernando Mendoza last season and Cam Ward during the 2024 season. This year that player could be North Carolina State quarterback CJ Bailey, who has impressed since his true freshman season when he ranked seventh among all FBS freshmen in passing yards with 2,413 despite only starting nine games. As a pro prospect, Bailey is an athletic pocket passer who shows good touch, impressive accuracy, and enough arm strength to consistently hit the deep ball in stride. 

Overrated: Julian Sayin, Ohio State 

One of the most overrated players in the 2027 NFL Draft is Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who is currently viewed by some as a top-five pick. While there is no denying his accuracy is elite after completing a Big Ten record 77% of his passes last season, it also helped that he was throwing to two likely top-five picks at wide receiver in Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith. Tate went fourth overall to the Titans in this year’s draft, while Smith is widely viewed as the top receiver in the 2027 NFL Draft. Outside of his accuracy, Sayin does not possess many elite traits as he is just an average athlete, is undersized at 6-foot-1 and 208 pounds, and lacks top-tier arm strength. For those reasons, I currently have a third-round grade on the Buckeye signal caller.

Sleeper: DJ Lagway, Baylor

Baylor QB DJ Lagway still impresses me with his high upside. He has one of the stronger arms in the 2027 NFL Draft and led the Power Four with an 8.8% big-time throw rate in 2024 according to PFF. He is also an impressive athlete for a 6-foot-3, 249-pound signal caller and is very hard to bring down in the pocket because of his strength. The concern with him is that his footwork still needs a ton of work as he will routinely throw from a poor base. He also needs to improve reading defenses after throwing 23 interceptions over the past two seasons. However, if he lands with a coach who knows how to develop quarterbacks, he has the natural tools to develop into an NFL starter. 

Biggest risk: LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

I was tempted to put Brendan Sorsby in this spot because of his gambling issues, but at this point it remains unclear whether he will enter the supplemental draft or the 2027 NFL Draft. Because of that, I am going with South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers due to how raw he still is as a passer. He forces too many throws, battles accuracy issues, and holds onto the ball too long. However, Sellers also has the traits to become an elite NFL quarterback with the right coaching, thanks to his impressive athletic ability, strong arm, and natural playmaking. 

Player who could have a breakout year: Lincoln Kienholz, Louisville

While I currently do not have a draftable grade on new Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, that could quickly change with more snaps this season. The former Ohio State quarterback only threw 36 passes over two seasons with the Buckeyes, but in limited reps he showed nice touch as a passer and the ability to hurt defenses with both his arm and legs. He also flashed enough natural talent to eventually develop into a legitimate NFL Draft prospect. Look for Kienholz to flourish this season in Jeff Brohm’s quarterback-friendly offense. 

Time for a bounce back season: Sam Leavitt, Arizona State

After a stellar 2024 season in which he was named the Big 12 Freshman/Newcomer of the Year, Sam Leavitt’s production took a dip in his final season at Arizona State. Much of that was due to a foot injury that limited him to just seven games last season. Look for Leavitt to bounce back this year at LSU, where he will be playing with a much better supporting cast and for one of the top offensive minds in college football in Lane Kiffin. If he can regain his previous form, he should reestablish himself as one of the top quarterbacks in college football and could work his way into second-round consideration next April. 

Overall QB rankings

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