The first week of college football is in the books, and the 2026 NFL Draft picture is already starting to take shape. The biggest storyline was Texas quarterback Arch Manning, who entered the year viewed by some as the top player in the class but struggled in his opener against Ohio State. One rough outing, though, should not scare off NFL teams, as Manning is expected to rebound quickly.
In this week’s NFL Draft Notebook, we break down Manning’s outlook, identify an early favorite to replace Micah Parsons in Dallas, spotlight a running back who is surging up boards, and much more.
Look for Arch to bounce back
Texas quarterback Arch Manning had a rough start to the season, completing just 56 percent of his passes for 170 yards against an elite Ohio State defense. However, expect that to be the low point of his season, as he is likely to bounce back. Even in that game, he flashed elite traits, most notably a perfect throw on a nine-route in the fourth quarter. Consistency was an issue, but he should become much more comfortable in the Longhorns’ next games against San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston, which should be far easier then facing Ohio State.
While I still grade him as a late first-round pick, and returning to school in 2026 would likely be the smartest move. Make no mistake, Manning has the talent to eventually be an NFL starting quarterback.
ARCH MANNING WITH A DIME AND A HUGE GAIN 🎯@TexasFootball pic.twitter.com/yNBrclwahR
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 30, 2025
Micah Parsons replacement?
The Dallas Cowboys pulled the biggest shock in the NFL recently when they traded star edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers. So now the question is who will they get to replace him and my super early guess is that player will be Clemson’s T.J. Parker. Like Parsons, Parker is a dominant pass rusher who recorded 11 sacks in 2024 and shows the flexibility to get around the edge. He is also better against the run than Parson’s is as he plays with more power a big reason why he had an 80.8 run defense grade last season from Pro Football Focus.
While it will be asking a ton for a rookie to play at the same level of Parsons’ adding a player like Parker in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft would be a giant step in the right direction
Quickly moving up the draft board
UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas is rapidly climbing draft boards. He opened the season as NFL Mocks’ player of the week in Week Zero after rushing for 147 yards and three touchdowns against Idaho State. On August 29th, he added 65 yards on just nine carries against Sam Houston State. Watching his film, it is clear how dynamic he is. Over the first two weeks, Thomas recorded three runs over 15 yards and five over 10 yards on only 19 carries. If he maintains this level of play, the junior has a strong chance of being a Day Three pick if he declares for the draft after the season.
Big loss for Wolverines
One of the biggest matchups in Week Two of college football is Oklahoma versus Michigan. The Wolverines will be without one of their defensive leaders, linebacker Jaishawn Barham, who will miss the first half after being ejected in the New Mexico game on a very questionable targeting call. This is a significant loss as Michigan faces one of the most athletic quarterbacks in college football, John Mateer. Barham would normally serve as a spy to keep him in the pocket, a role he will likely take on when he returns in the second half.
Look for Robertson and Thomas to lead Baylor past SMU
Another big matchup in Week Two features Baylor against SMU. While SMU may be the higher-rated team, expect Baylor to pull off the upset. Leading the way will be two NFL Draft prospects: quarterback Sawyer Robertson, widely considered the most underrated signal-caller in the 2026 NFL Draft, and linebacker Keaton Thomas, who was first-team All-Big 12 last season and led the Bears with 15 tackles against Auburn.
Where Jackson Arnold still needs to improve
Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold had an impressive debut with his new team, leading the Tigers to a 38-24 win over Baylor. However, there are still areas where he needs to improve. The main one is his passing. To become a quarterback with a top-100 grade in the 2026 NFL Draft, Arnold needs to improve his accuracy, which is still inconsistent, largely due to questionable footwork. He also needs to get the ball out faster. His average time to release the ball in the Baylor game was 3.29 seconds, according to Pro Football Focus, which is too slow. If he can improve in these areas, teams will be even more drawn to his multidimensional talent.
Group of five quarterback to watch
One Group of Five quarterback off to a strong start this season is Western Kentucky’s Maverick McIvor. Through his first two games, he has thrown for 706 yards while completing 70% of his passes and tossing eight touchdowns. On film, his accuracy immediately stands out, especially on back-shoulder throws. If he continues putting up eye-popping numbers, expect him to earn an invite to an all-star event like the East-West Shrine Bowl, where a strong week could boost him into late-round draft consideration.
Overrated
One offensive tackle currently being overrated is Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor, who holds a consensus ranking as the sixth-best player in the 2026 NFL Draft according to NFL Mock Draft Database. His game film tells a different story. In his most recent game against Florida State, he allowed six pressures, which was the most in the country during Week One. He also struggled at times last season while battling a shoulder injury, finishing with just a 70.8 PFF grade. Beyond on-field issues, Proctor carries some character concerns, having battled weight problems in the past and frustrating Iowa when he transferred there in 2024 to collect NIL money before returning to Alabama.