Has there ever been a prospect who has accomplished less in college football than Arch Manning yet been projected as the No. 1 overall pick? The answer is no. And after breaking down his film, the one thought that keeps running through my mind is this: chill out with the hype on the Texas Longhorns quarterback.
I see Manning more as a late first-round prospect and the third-best quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft, not the consensus number one player The Athletic and others are projecting.
The main reasons are limited experience, soft competition, and struggles when facing real defenses. Most of his significant snaps last season came against weaker opponents like Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Against Georgia, he completed just 50 percent of his passes and was sacked twice on nine dropbacks. Against Florida, he threw for only 19 yards on six attempts and again hit just 50 percent. Those are not the numbers of a future top pick.
Red flags in Manning’s game
Beyond the mediocre stats, his tape raises red flags. His biggest issue is touch. He rifles short throws that should be easy completions, often making them uncatchable. Accuracy and touch are not yet strengths.
Turnovers are another concern. According to Pro Football Focus, Manning turned the ball over six times in just 101 dropbacks last season. That is a brutal rate. The causes are clear: he forces throws into tight windows, and he is careless with the ball when scrambling, often exposing it while trying to create plays.
Arch Manning throws his first career interception on the opening drive of the game. pic.twitter.com/2wXd8q4HcK
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 22, 2024
That said, Manning is not without upside. His arm strength is impressive, and he can push the ball downfield and make throws on the move with ease. But he still needs to learn when to take something off the fastball. He is also a much better athlete than his uncles. Texas often used him to add a running element, and his 67-yard run against UTSA proved he is dangerous in the open field.
Intangibles also work in his favor. For a kid with the last name Manning, he has handled the spotlight well. Coaches rave about his work ethic, teammates follow his lead, and his football IQ should be through the roof considering he has been groomed to play quarterback since birth.
Bottom line: Manning has tools, leadership, and pedigree. But the hype of him being the top prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft is premature. He has plenty to prove before he is seen as a true franchise quarterback.