2026 NFL Draft QB breakdown: Dante Moore emerges as QB1; Carson Beck is a major risk

The 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class is not an elite group. Only two players, Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza, project as likely top-ten picks. That said, the class does feature several intriguing mid-round options who, in the right system, could outplay their draft position.

In our first position breakdown of the 2026 NFL Draft, we explain why Dante Moore stands as the top quarterback in the class, how Trinidad Chambliss went from an afterthought to a potential fourth-round pick, and why Alabama’s Ty Simpson is currently being overrated.

Top Player: Dante Moore, Oregon

The race for the top spot is extremely close between Oregon’s Dante Moore and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. Moore gets the slight edge due to his higher ceiling. He is a more natural passer with a stronger arm and greater downfield juice. League buzz suggests teams agree, including the Raiders, who currently hold the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Breakout Player: Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

Trinidad Chambliss pick as the breakout player is the easiest pick on this list. Going into the season, he wasn’t even a starter and had never played above Division II. This year, he has led Ole Miss to within a game of the National Championship and earned SEC Newcomer of the Year honors. As a pro prospect, he is an impressive athlete who takes excellent care of the football, throwing just three interceptions all season. At 6-foot, 200 pounds, he lacks elite measurables, which likely limits him to a fourth- or fifth-round pick, though with a bit more size he could easily be a Day 2 selection.

Biggest Risk: Carson Beck, Miami

The one quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft I would avoid entirely is Miami’s Carson Beck. There are too many red flags to overlook, and it’s baffling to see outlets like ESPN projecting him as a second-round pick. Off the field, he raises significant character concerns regarding leadership and personal conduct. On the field, he is one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the class, and Miami rarely asks him to take shots downfield. Injury history adds another layer of risk, as he missed the end of the 2024 season with a torn UCL. This is a prospect I would let another team take the risk on.

Sleeper: Taylen Green, Arkansas

Taylen Green is likely a Day 3 pick, but his upside is real. His mobility immediately stands out. He is a legitimate weapon in the quarterback run game, breaking off seven runs of 15 or more yards and finishing the season with 755 rushing yards. Green also shows impressive arm strength, with the ability to challenge defenses with a flick of the wrist or make difficult throws on the move. Ball security remains a concern after 16 turnovers last season, and his mechanics need refinement. Still, with his physical tools, Green has the traits to develop into a starting quarterback within three to four years.

Had a Disappointing Season: Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Going into 2025, Nussmeier was widely projected as a potential No. 1 overall pick, including by outlets like CBS. By season’s end, he struggled with an oblique injury and multiple benchings. His yards per game dropped nearly 100, and he threw just 12 touchdown passes. His NFL Draft stock clearly took a hit, and he now projects as a third- or fourth-round pick. Teams will continue to have concerns about his tendency to force throws, average arm strength, and lack of ideal size for the next level.

Small School Standout: Cole Payton, North Dakota State

Cole Payton is the only small-school quarterback with a realistic chance of being drafted. The North Dakota State signal-caller is a big, physical presence at 6-foot-3, 233 pounds and is difficult to bring down in the open field, forcing 39 missed tackles this season. While he is far from a polished passer, Payton has flashed legitimate arm talent, connecting on 28 big-time throws according to PFF. Teams are likely to view him as a developmental option and could bring him in with a sixth- or seventh-round pick.

Overrated: Ty Simpson, Alabama

No quarterback dealt with a weaker supporting cast than Alabama’s Ty Simpson. The Tide failed to establish even an average run game, placing the offense squarely on his shoulders. Still, there are enough concerns to drop Simpson into the second round on my board, well below the first-round grades he routinely receives from other outlets. He struggles when forced to throw under pressure, has only average NFL arm strength, and holds the ball too long far too often. While he is a quarterback teams can win with, he does not show the traits of a true NFL franchise passer.