NFL Draft Notebook: Micah Parsons Becomes NFL Sack Leader, Plus More NFC East Predictions

In this week’s NFL Draft Notebook, we preview the NFC East and make ten predictions of what will happen in 2023. These predictions include Micah Parsons leading the NFL in sacks, the Eagles returning to the NFC Championship, and the Commanders moving in a different direction after the season.

In addition to looking at the NFC East, this week’s article also previews the 2024 offensive guard class, reexamines a loaded 2020 guard class, and much more. Follow along at NFLMocks as we continue our “predictions” series leading up to the regular season.

NFC East Predictions

No. 1: Micah Parsons will lead the NFL in sacks

Last season, Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons finished sixth in the NFL with 14.5 sacks. Look for that number to increase this year due to opponents having to pass more often against the Cowboys. Teams will be forced to throw the ball more thanks to an improved rush defense that will be helped by the addition of first-round pick Mazi Smith. Parsons also has the talent to take advantage of these opportunities, finishing with a 92.0 pass-rushing grade last year.

No. 2: Deuce Vaughn will rush for at least 500 yards as a rookie

Look for Dallas to run the ball even more after finishing seventh in the NFL in rushes per game last season. The main reason is head coach Mike McCarthy. He will be calling plays in 2023 and has vowed to be a run-first offense. Depth at this position could be an issue for the Cowboys, though, after the team let go of Ezekiel Elliott, who led the team in carries last year. One person Dallas will look to pick up that slack is sixth-round pick, Deuce Vaughn. While Vaughn will be a backup to Tony Pollard, his quick and elusive running style should allow him to get plenty of carries as the No. 2 option.

No. 3: The Giants will miss the playoffs

While the New York Giants upgraded their roster this offseason, look for the team to have a worse record in 2023. The main reason is how they looked at the end of the season, only winning two of their final eight games. New York also will be hurt by an average defense that gave up 23 points a game and lost one of their leaders, Julian Love. Big Blue faces an uphill climb in the NFC East.

NFC East Predictions Continue With A New Tight End In The Division

No. 4: Darren Waller will lead the Giants in receptions

The best move New York made this offseason was trading for Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller. When healthy, Waller has been one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL. He caught 107 passes in 2020, which was the last time he played a full season. If the gifted pass catcher can stay on the field, expect him to be Daniel Jones’s No. 1 target. Catching at least 80 passes this year is well within reach.

No. 5: The Eagles will make it to the NFC Championship

Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles proved to be one of the best teams in the NFL; this year will be more of the same. However, they will not get past the San Francisco 49ers in this year’s NFC Championship. The main reason is the Niners will be able to take advantage of the Eagles’ average run defense, and San Fran will also be able to keep its quarterback healthy.

No. 6: Jalen Hurts will be more of a pocket passer

Jalen Hurts has improved as a passer each year in his NFL career. He went from a 52 percent passer as a rookie to completing 67% of his passes in 2023. Hurts has also witnessed his interception ratio drop each season, and due to these reasons, look for Philadelphia to use him more as a passer while trying to limit his carries. The team will want to keep its prize piece healthy, especially since he was banged up at the end of the previous campaign.

No. 7: Nolan Smith will be the Eagles’ top rookie

While Jalen Carter was the team’s top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, look for Nolan Smith to make more of an impact in Year 1. The biggest reason is Smith’s dynamic ability as a pass rusher. You can count on the former Bulldog giving 100 percent effort every play. Expect the athletic freak to get at least three sacks this year as his playing time steadily increases.

Predictions Roll On As The Eagles Target A Familiar Program At The 2024 NFL Draft

No. 8: The Eagles will draft at least two players from Georgia in the 2024 NFL Draft

The Philadelphia Eagles have taken five Georgia Bulldogs since the 2022 NFL Draft, including three this past April. Look for this trend to continue in the 2024 NFL Draft. Some of the Georgia prospects who could make sense for the Eagles include: center Sedrick Van Pran, safety Javon Bullard, and linebacker Smael Mondon Jr.

No. 9: Ron Rivera will be fired on Black Monday

Look for new Washington Commanders’ owner Josh Harris to move on from head coach Ron Rivera after this season. He is going to want to bring in a guy who can clean up the culture in Washington. It also doesn’t help that Rivera has not had a winning record in three years; a trend that will continue when the Commanders finish dead last in the NFC East. Predictions aren’t always sunshine and rainbows!

No. 10: This will be Chase Young’s last year in Washington

One of the biggest mistakes in Washington’s history is winning the last game of the 2019 season. This win cost the team a chance at Joe Burrow, and instead, led to them drafting Chase Young. While Young had a promising start to his NFL career — winning Defensive Rookie of the Year — he has only accounted for 1.5 sacks since 2021. The former Buckeye has battled numerous injuries over the past two seasons, having only played in 12 games over that span. It is time for both sides to move on.

2024 NFL Draft Guard Class Preview

Top Player: Cooper Beebe, Kansas State
The past three years, we have watched an offensive guard drafted in the top 15. The player who could go that high this year is Kansas State’s Cooper Beebe. In 2022, Beebe was named an All-American and the Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year.

When looking at how his game translates to the NFL, the first thing that stands out with Beebe is his strength and how physical he plays. He also shows a high football IQ and has no trouble identifying defensive stunts or understanding his assignments. Another positive with the Wildcat standout is the fact he has never allowed a sack during his college career.

Guy I Would Stand on the Table for: Troy Fautanu, Washington
Teams that like mobile offensive linemen are going to love Washington’s Troy Fautanu. Fautanu is an impressive athlete who has even played left tackle for the Huskies. However, due to his lack of length, he will likely play inside in the NFL.

The reason I am so high on the Washington lineman is how well he operates in space, showing the ability to be a lead blocker as a pulling lineman, get to the second level as a run blocker, and slide in pass protection. He should be an ideal fit in a zone-blocking scheme and absolutely has the skillset to start in the NFL.

Overrated: Connor Colby, Iowa
One of the most overrated players in the 2024 NFL Draft currently is Iowa offensive guard Connor Colby. Last season, while playing both offensive tackle and offensive guard, he had a 37.4 pass blocking grade by Pro Football Focus. Furthermore, his film leaves a lot to be desired. The biggest concern is how often he allows defenders to get into his body due to his poor hand use. Colby also lacks power on his initial punch and overall shows poor technique.

Despite these concerns, and the fact he was listed as a second-teamer after spring practice, he is widely rated as a day-two prospect by other draftniks. I see Colby as more of a late-day three pick and that is only due to his impressive athletic ability and intriguing potential.

Sleeper: Marcus Tate, Clemson

Perhaps it is due to the season-ending knee injury he suffered last season, but people are overlooking Clemson’s Marcus Tate. Tate, who is only the third true freshman offensive lineman to start a season opener for Clemson, shows the traits to be a starting offensive guard in the NFL.

The area he excels at is run blocking using his size (6-foot-6, 325 pounds) and impressive strength to drive his defender off the ball on a routine basis. While he is a better run blocker than a pass blocker, Tate does hold up in this area by showing quick enough feet to keep up with most defensive tackles. The teams that will really like Tate are the ones who play a gap scheme and really emphasizes a power-running game.

Biggest Risk: Christian Mahogany, Boston College
A player who would carry a first-round grade if not coming off a serious injury is Boston College’s Christian Mahogany. Unfortunately, Mahogany is coming off a torn ACL, which caused him to miss all of last year. When on the field he is one of the better guards in college football, being named second-team All-ACC in 2021, and showing the athletic ability, strength, and toughness to be a high-quality NFL starter.

Top Five Guards from the 2020 NFL Draft

It usually takes three years to evaluate a draft class, so over the next few months, NFL Draft Notebook will be looking back at the 2020 draft class. This week we look at the guard position.

1. Mike Onwenu, New England Patriots
One of the best value picks in the 2020 NFL Draft was Mike Onwenu, who went to the New England Patriots with the 182nd overall pick. Onwenu has seen time at both guard and tackle for the Patriots and last year received the fourth-highest grade among offensive guards by Pro Football Focus.

2. Jonah Jackson, Detroit Lions
Another great value from the 2023 NFL Draft is former Ohio State offensive guard Jonah Jackson. He was taken in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Jackson has been a consistent starter for the Lions by starting 45 games so far during his career. In 2022, he didn’t give up a sack and was only called for four penalties.

3. Robert Hunt, Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphin offensive guard Robert Hunt is coming off the best season of his career, and he should only continue to improve. Last season, Hunt set a career-high with a 74.6 pass-blocking grade and a 74.5 run-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus.

4. Cesar Ruiz, New Orleans Saints
The only first-round pick out of this group, Cesar Ruiz, has lived up to the expectations of being the 24th pick overall. Ruiz started nine games as a rookie and has been a consistent starter ever since. The biggest concern with him is a season-ending foot injury last season.

5. Damien Lewis, Seattle Seahawks
In what turned out to be a very strong offensive guard group, the last player to make this list is Damien Lewis. Lewis was originally a third-round pick of the Seattle Seahawks, and he has been a starter from day one. Over his career, he has started 45 games and will be counted on to be Seattle’s starting left guard tin 2023.

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Notes

— Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan is one of the more underrated players in the 2024 NFL Draft. Last season, McMillian was one of the best slot receivers in college football, hauling in 79 passes for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns. His top trait is his speed, showing the ability to consistently get behind defenders. However, he is far from a one-trick pony. McMillan flexes the toughness and concentration to catch the ball in traffic. In addition to these traits, he also has soft consistent hands, which rarely see him drop a pass.

— While Kansas State’s Cooper Beebe is my top-rated guard in the 2024 NFL Draft, Ohio State Donovan Jackson also carries a first-round grade. What stands out about Jackson is his overall strength. He has one of the most fierce first punches in this class and once he gets his hands on the defender, the play is over. He also moves well for someone 6-foot-4 and 320 pounds, showing the agility to get to the second level or pass block quick defensive tackles. He also shows good scheme versatility, exhibiting the power to play in a gap scheme and the athletic ability to operate in a zone-blocking scheme.

— South Dakota State’s Mason McCormick is easily the top small school offensive guard in the 2024 NFL Draft, and he currently carries a day-three draft grade on my board. What stands out about McCormick is his impressive strength, which helped him earn the second-highest Pro Football Focus grade for FCS offensive guards in 2022. In addition to earning that high rating, he has earned All-American honors each of the past three seasons. One more trait that really stands out with McCormick is how well he finishes his blocks, showing the nastiness offensive line coaches love.

— ESPN’s Matt Miller reported that Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. received a perfect score from the scout he talked to. The same tweet also mentioned how he might be the best player in the NFL Draft. While I have some doubts about this report since most scouts don’t give out perfect grades — and if they do they surely don’t give out multiple per year — there is no doubt Harrison is an elite prospect. Harrison’s top trait is his terrific hands, being able to consistently come up with the tough catch or snag the contested pass. He also shows impressive strength, which combined with his 6-foot-4 and 205-pound size, makes him a threat after the catch. One reason I would not give MHJ a perfect grade is his speed. While he isn’t a 4.3 guy, he does have the speed and overall talent to be a No. 1 receiver in the NFL.

— For all the latest NFL Draft news make sure to check out The Notebook.

Prediction of the Week

BYU will have a rough first year in the Big 12 and will suffer its first losing season since 2017.