NFL Sophomore Watch: James Robinson the start of a new RB trend?
Undrafted second year player James Robinson is among the NFL’s rushing leaders this season. Are teams now going to go bargain hunting when it comes to finding running backs?
In 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson became just the fourth undrafted running back to run for 1,000 yards in his rookie season. The other three were Dominic Rhodes, LeGarrette Blount, and Phillip Lindsay.
In 14 games in 2020, James Robinson’s final stat line ended up being 1,070 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, along with 344 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. Fantasy football managers were thrilled to find a running back that was so efficient on the waiver wire. And the Jaguars themselves did well to sign a running back from Illinois State, an FCS school.
To his credit, James Robinson has shown that last year wasn’t a fluke. At the time of this writing, he’s fourth in the NFL in rushing yards, with 387 in five games. He’s averaging a healthy 5.8 yards per carry. The three running backs with more rushing yards than Robinson this season were all taken in the first or second round of the NFL Draft. The only other undrafted player in the top-10 in the NFL for rushing yards is Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers.
The success of Robinson, Ekeler, and other running backs taken in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft or later (Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, Tony Pollard, and Antonio Gibson) begs the question: Should an NFL team ever take a running back in the first round of the NFL Draft? There’s a case to be made that the answer is no.
There are several reasons for this. First, running backs aren’t having as much of an impact on the game anymore. The league and its respective teams are passing more and more, so the days of teams having a bell cow that gets 25 carries per game are likely over. Second, is the injury risk. The Giants took Saquon Barkley with the 2nd overall pick of the 2018 draft and he’s been severely hampered by injuries in his first three years. Sunday will be Barkley’s 18th missed game in his first three seasons. Having a high pick get injured hurts a team way more than an undrafted player or late round selection missing time.
Third is the conundrum of the second contract. Often teams that take a running back high in the first round feel like they have to hand him a second contract because of the initial investment they made. This is faulty reasoning and akin to the sunk cost fallacy, but it’s a real problem that team builders have to deal with. Ezekiel Elliot got a second deal while his backup Tony Pollard, a fourth round pick in 2019, is averaging a full yard more per carry this season (6.4 to 5.3).
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And fourth, and finally, teams like to split carries or use a backfield by committee. This is because they can carry two running backs with complementary skill sets. They can have a power back for short yardage and a smaller quicker running back for the middle of the field and early downs. The Packers tried this with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams and the Jaguars were likely aiming to try it when they selected speedy Clemson running back Travis Etienne with a first round pick this year.