2022 NFL Draft: Spencer Rattler the next great NFL QB prospect?

Following in the footsteps of the 2021 quarterback class will be no easy task. Only three drafts in league history have ever had quarterbacks taken first, second, and third overall. Although it is unlikely the 2022 NFL Draft will feature the same depth at the position, there is one prospect that is already turning heads.

The spotlight isn’t anything new to Spencer Rattler. He was a four-year starter at Pinnacle High School, where he broke the all-time Arizona high school passing yards record and won MVP of the Elite 11 competition between the nation’s top high school quarterbacks.

The high-profile status followed Rattler when he enrolled at Oklahoma in 2019. After redshirting his first year in Norman, fans were already hailing Rattler as the next great Sooner quarterback going into 2020.

Rattler was able to live up to the hype in his redshirt freshman campaign, putting up a stat line of 3,031 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions while leading Oklahoma to a Big 12 championship. Rattler’s season left a good impression on scouts and led many to believe he could be the first quarterback off the board in next May’s NFL Draft.

As far as college quarterbacks go, Rattler fits the mold of a quarterback in the modern NFL very well. His blend of physical traits and understanding of the game projects very favorably to the next level. Rattler has already demonstrated the basic skills needed from the position, such as accuracy and decision-making. Additionally, his arm talent and athleticism give him the high ceiling desired in elite NFL prospects.

Rattler completed 67.5% of his passes in 2020 and demonstrated strong accuracy in all areas of the field. He can make just about every throw in the book and was able to do so with limited negative plays. The poise showcased as a redshirt freshman was extremely impressive, especially considering concerns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic limited much of Rattler’s spring and summer reps.

What stands out the most in Rattler’s game is his ability to create plays outside of structure. This is a skill that has become more valuable in the NFL in recent years. Teams now prefer more athletic quarterbacks who can scramble when a play breaks down. Rattler’s rare ability to create plays outside of the pocket was truly incredible and was reminiscent of Patrick Mahomes’ Texas Tech days.

It is important to note that the Texas Tech version of Patrick Mahomes that Rattler has been compared to is nowhere near the Kansas City Chiefs version of Patrick Mahomes. Players can be very similar prospects and end up with completely different careers. That being said, it’s nearly impossible to overlook the overlap between the two’s games.

That isn’t to say there aren’t negatives with this comparison either. Mahomes was often accused of relying too much on his arm talent to get away with poor mechanics and footwork. Although off-platform throws give Rattler massive upside, there are times where he makes throws from angles that cause the throw to be far more challenging than it needs to be. This didn’t lead to many turnover-worthy plays outside of the pocket in 2020, but it could become more of a problem against NFL competition.

The primary negative of Rattler’s game was also seen with Mahomes in college. The scramble-heavy style of play can be difficult to block for and frequently leads to quarterbacks taking unnecessary pressures and sacks. Rattler is often seen giving up on the initial play too early and looks to create his own play when he doesn’t need to.

Unstructured plays can yield many positive results but can also be inconsistent. In the NFL, Mahomes was able to find a healthy balance of playing inside and outside of structure with Kansas City, which helped propel him to MVP status.

Mahomes’ struggles without a healthy offensive line in Super Bowl 55 seem to illustrate the issue scouts have with Rattler’s play style. No matter how talented a quarterback is and how great he is at improvising, that ability alone is not enough to consistently win football games.

Making plays on the run and under pressure have a wide range of outcomes and are only meant to be made when necessary. If a player tries to make these throws too much, it will eventually lead to negative plays, including sacks, interceptions, and fumbles. This is why Rattler will need to become more comfortable operating inside of the pocket in the NFL.

Most of Rattler’s criticism has more to do with his playstyle than him as a player.  Although there are established negatives to a quarterback who likes to play off the script, it is difficult to find a fatal flaw in Rattler’s individual skillset. The arm strength, accuracy, decision-making, processing, and athleticism are all evident.

Rattler is listed at 6’1″, which would put him on the smaller side of NFL quarterbacks. However, recent drafts suggest this shouldn’t affect his draft stock. Fellow Sooner quarterbacks Kyler Murray (5’10) and Baker Mayfield (6’0 ⅝) went first overall in the 2019 and 2018 NFL Draft respectively.

This isn’t to say Rattler is a bulletproof prospect. He only has one year of college film, and much of his pro appeal is based on the room for growth and improvement. The 2021 season should give us a better idea of where Rattler rates out as a prospect. Still, it’s hard to ignore the potential that is there.