Deshaun Watson: Jets, 49ers three-team trade idea
If Deshaun Watson is truly going to be on the move in 2021, it would be an unprecedented move.
Big names at the quarterback position have been traded before, but 25-year old MVP candidates at the position? That just doesn’t happen.
When Watson signed his long-term deal with the Texans, it was slightly confusing from the perspective of outsiders because of the fact that Houston’s front office infrastructure was in flux, Bill O’Brien was a head coach on the hot seat, and Houston’s roster was benefitting greatly from Watson’s presence.
Watson, however, may have played his cards just right by getting a no-trade clause in his contract extension with the Texans, which has now given him the leverage not only to force his way out of Houston but to choose his next destination, to boot.
According to a recent report from Armando Salguero, a longtime Miami-based reporter, the preferred trade destinations for the Texans’ star quarterback are the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, in that order.
Although Miami nearly made the playoffs in 2020 and has no state income tax for players, the Jets appear to be the early favorites from Watson’s camp.
If that is the case, it could set into motion a very interesting domino effect at the quarterback position for a number of teams.
The Jets have four first-round picks in the next two draft classes, including the second overall pick in 2021 and 23rd overall pick. They also have Sam Darnold, who could be valued in the range of at least a third- or fourth-round selection at his age and talent level.
Though the Jets would probably prefer not to part with all four first-round picks in any trade, a deal for Watson is going to be rather unprecedented and could look crazy on paper if (or when) it happens.
Because the Jets will need to keep some draft capital in any event, a trade for Watson that also includes Sam Darnold could wind up requiring the involvement of a third team.
Not that Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch would do anything to see their former defensive coordinator Robert Saleh have his cake and eat it too in New York by acquiring DeShaun Watson (while also bringing offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel along), but they could benefit from such a deal themselves.
The 49ers could get involved if they are interested both in acquiring Sam Darnold and moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo’s contract is pretty fair given what he’s accomplished as a starter in the NFL, but at over $26 million against the cap in 2021, the 49ers might be more inclined to save more than $24 million and try their hand at other quarterbacks in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Darnold has long been thought to be an ideal fit for that type of offense, so even if he does wind up staying in New York, the presence of Saleh and McDaniel there could help revive his career.
With all of these potential moving parts and the Texans really just SOL at this point when it comes to Deshaun Watson, how might a three-team trade look that would be beneficial for all parties?
Three-team Deshaun Watson trade proposal
New York Jets receive:
- QB DeShaun Watson
San Francisco 49ers receive:
- QB Sam Darnold
- 4th round pick (113th overall) from HOU via ARI
Houston Texans receive:
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo
- 2021 1st-round pick (2nd overall) from NYJ
- 2021 1st-round pick (23rd overall) from NYJ via SEA
- 2022 1st-round pick from NYJ
- 2022 1st-round pick from NYJ via SEA
- 2021 3rd-round pick (87th overall) from NYJ
- 2021 3rd-round pick (compensatory) from SF
This seems like an absolutely bonkers trade from the perspective of the New York Jets, giving up Sam Darnold, four first-round picks, and a third-round pick for Deshaun Watson.
There could be additional later-round picks floated to the Jets in addition to Watson, but on the whole, these would be the primary assets moving around that could reasonably get a deal done to satisfy all involved parties.
Why would the Jets do it?
This trade not only nets the Jets Deshaun Watson, but it would also allow them to keep their second-round pick (34th overall) in 2021 which would essentially be like keeping a first-round pick.
It also allows them to keep their high third-round selection in 2021, and frankly, even if they were able to keep just 87 and trade 67, it would still be a good trade for them.
To be able to lure Robert Saleh from the 49ers, the Jets’ identity defensively is already going to be drastically different (improved). Bringing in Mike McDaniel and DeShaun Watson for the offense, the Jets would be able to mesh some of the best offensive concepts in the NFL from that Shanahan coaching tree with one of the best young players in the game at the quarterback position.
Even if the reason were just “they are getting Deshaun Watson” it would be enough to explain why trading four first-round picks and then some is worth it for New York.
Why would the 49ers do it?
First and foremost, swapping out Jimmy Garoppolo with Sam Darnold does carry some inherent risk. Even though his health concerns have mounted, Garoppolo did help lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl two seasons ago.
The primary motivations here for the 49ers would be not only adding over $24 million in cap space for 2021 but acquiring a young player in Darnold who is cost controlled for at least two more seasons and could really blossom in their offense.
It’s risky, but San Francisco could use that cap space to supplement the losses they might suffer defensively, especially in the secondary where Richard Sherman and Jaquiski Tartt are headed for free agency, along with Jason Verrett and K’Wuan Williams.
For San Francisco, this would mean a youth movement at quarterback and a reset on that side of the ball. The team simply cannot keep counting on Garoppolo at his price tag with the injury risk he presents.
Why would the Texans do it?
The Texans are between a rock and a hard place.
Deshaun Watson doesn’t want to be there at this moment in time. He doesn’t want to be there, they are in a lot of trouble when it comes to the salary cap, and they have no selections in the first two rounds of the 2021 NFL Draft.
This trade would give them the opportunity at any quarterback they wanted not named Trevor Lawrence, and it would replenish their selections not only for this year but for the 2022 NFL Draft as well.
As a matter of fact, this deal would give Houston three picks in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and general manager Nick Caserio could put together the exact type of roster he wants to with that kind of capital.
Given Watson’s cap hit is low in 2021, his value in a trade will likely never be higher despite the money remaining that the Texans owe him. In order to justify still having Watson’s dead cap on the books, the Texans would need a bounty of draft picks to work with.
Interestingly enough, Jimmy Garoppolo has a history with new Texans GM Nick Caserio from their time together in New England. Because Garoppolo and Caserio have history, Jimmy G. might have some decent job stability in Houston despite the presence of another young quarterback.
The Texans could get Garoppolo to re-do his contract and maybe put some more guaranteed cash in it for him but get the cap hits down so they can use their additional draft capital to rebuild defensively.
This trade would give Houston four picks in the top 100-110 in the 2021 NFL Draft, including three in the top 87. They could use that 23rd pick from Seattle to move back and acquire even more capital on day two and three.
Those two first-round picks in 2022 might be mid-late first-rounders at best, but there’s no doubt that Houston would be able to get some more cornerstone players.
If you’re Nick Caserio, you obviously don’t want to trade Watson. But if Watson doesn’t want to be in Houston, there are going to be options out there to regain some much-needed capital and shape the roster as he sees fit.