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New England Patriots can’t pass on a quarterback at 23

By George Stockburger

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 04: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots speaks to the media after losing 41-33 to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII at U.S. Bank Stadium on February 4, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Larry Busacca/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - FEBRUARY 04: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots speaks to the media after losing 41-33 to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII at U.S. Bank Stadium on February 4, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Larry Busacca/Getty Images) /
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If the Patriots are ready to find Tom Brady’s heir, it has to be at pick 23

The reported tension in the Patriots organization with the apparent forced-trade of Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco leaves New England at a critical crossroads in their franchise’s history. Tom Brady’s speedometer is approaching the 100,000-mile mark when things start to wear out and the warranty comes up.

New England must get serious about finding the true heir to Brady’s throne after testing the waters with Ryan Mallett, Zac Robinson, Brian Hoyer, Jacoby Brissett, and Garoppolo.

Since acquiring the 23rd overall pick from the Los Angeles Rams for wide receiver Brandin Cooks speculation has arisen as to whether New England has found a quarterback worthy of replacing Brady. Whether that means trading up for one of the top quarterbacks or waiting for the value to match, the time is now for the next generation of Patriots quarterbacks.
Since acquiring the 23rd overall pick from the Los Angeles Rams for wide receiver Brandin Cooks speculation has arisen as to whether New England has found a quarterback worthy of replacing Brady. Whether that means trading up for one of the top quarterbacks or waiting for the value to match, the time is now for the next generation of Patriots quarterbacks. /

Bill Belichick hasn’t traded up in the first round since 2012 when they moved up for both Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower. New England had previously received an additional first round pick from New Orleans the year before when the Saints moved up to draft Mark Ingram.

According to the NFL Draft pick trade value chart, it would cost the Patriots both their first round picks this year and their third round pick (95th overall) to move into the top-eight picks. For a team that’s lost their top receiver, offensive lineman, and a cornerback that price may be too steep for a quarterback who will likely sit for at least three years. New England can hold onto all three of those picks as part of a plan to win during and after the Brady era.

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With trading up feeling unlikely, the Patriots, if ready to find Brady’s heir, are well positioned to take a quarterback sitting pat. For more reasons than one, that player more than likely will be selected with the Rams former pick at 23.

A lesson learned from the Garoppolo era was that if you love a young quarterback, it behooves you to get them in the first round. Players taken on the first day of the NFL Draft carry the option of a fifth-year added to their rookie contract. Having a development quarterback for that extra year is critical, as seen with Garoppolo and New England not coming to terms on a long-term deal with Brady approaching his age-41 season.

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While the Patriots two second round picks project to have better value for a development quarterback such as Mason Rudolph or Kyle Lauletta, the lack of a fifth-year option hurts everyone involved with Brady’s true milage unknown.

Now that we’ve established the need for a fifth-year option when drafting a quarterback, the question as to which pick makes sense for drafting Brady’s heir arises. Not all first round picks are created equal, and the Patriots’ picks are much less valuable than the Bills’ sitting at 12 and 22. For a class deep at quarterback, the value and projections of a late-first round pick are murky.

Regardless, if the plan in New England is to find the heir to Brady, they must use the Rams pick instead of their own to take that player. Belichick made this move with a player, quarterback or not, in mind. There’s no reason to take a chance on hoping one or two players highlighted by the organization falls to them at 31, especially if one of those players is a quarterback.
Regardless, if the plan in New England is to find the heir to Brady, they must use the Rams pick instead of their own to take that player. Belichick made this move with a player, quarterback or not, in mind. There’s no reason to take a chance on hoping one or two players highlighted by the organization falls to them at 31, especially if one of those players is a quarterback. /

More importantly, of the seven teams slated to pick between the Patriots in the first round, three have a somewhat immediate need at quarterback: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, Carolina, Tennessee, Atlanta, and Minnesota are prime candidates to trade out having already established themselves as playoff contenders for next year given their rosters.

If Belichick and company believe they have their guy, they can not afford for him to land in either of the three aforementioned cities. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville are major threats to the Patriots AFC crown, and the Saints are building a solid team with Brees signing a two-year contract.

If there’s a target in mind, you get that player when you can, regardless of what others may value him at. Rudolph, Lauletta, Mike White, Lamar Jackson and the other “development” quarterbacks have ranges projected across draft boards. Who’s to say the Patriots don’t see one of them as a star?

Next: Indianapolis Colts 2018 Seven Round Mock Draft

If a quarterback is in the plans for Belichick, New England must use the 23rd pick on whoever New England identifies as their guy. They collect a potential fifth-year option, secure Brady’s heir, and get their guy before Pittsburgh or New Orleans gets the chance.

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