It's Now or Never for Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel to Impress NFL

It was almost five years ago, July 27th, 2011 to be exact, when quarterback Gunner Kiel committed to play football at Indiana University. This was a huge pickup for the Hoosiers as Kiel was ranked by several scouting services as the number one high school QB in the nation, ahead of Florida State commit Jameis Winston.

Fast forward to September 12th, 2014, and Gunner Kiel is throwing for 418 yards and six touchdowns in his collegiate debut for the University of Cincinnati. So why isn’t Kiel competing against Winston in the NFL, or at the very least being discussed as a possible top pick in the 2017 NFL Draft?

It’s what happened between July of 2011 and September of 2014, as well as after his debut, that has placed Kiel in a situation where he has one final chance to prove he belongs at the next level.

Quarterbacks who are 6-foot-4, 215 pounds with the arm talent of Kiel typically don’t have to wait three years to throw their first college pass. It’s quarterbacks behind guys like Kiel who generally have to wait their turn. However in this case, Kiel put himself in the situation.

Before beginning his college career, he would decommit from Indiana, commit to LSU, decommit from LSU and finally commit and enroll at Notre Dame. At this point, it’s still only January of 2012.

Kiel would go on to redshirt his first year and watch freshman QB Everett Golson lead the Fighting Irish to the BCS National Championship Game. Three months after Notre Dame lost in the title game to Alabama, Kiel was on the move again; this time to the University of Cincinnati. Had he known Golson would be suspended for a year as part of an academic scandal just one month later, Kiel may have stuck around. At this point there was no turning back, and in the words of New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, “we’re on to Cincinnati.”

Similar to the fire Tom Brady played with in a 43-17 drubbing of the Cincinnati Bengals six days after Belichick’s famous quote, Gunner Kiel displayed similar passion in his Bearcats debut. Silencing the critics, he dismantled Toledo 58-34 and broke a 45-year-old NCAA record by throwing six touchdown passes in his collegiate debut.

Suddenly the talk wasn’t about Kiel’s inability to honor his commitments, but his actual play on the field.

His first month as the starter couldn’t have gone much better as Kiel threw 14 touchdown passes in his first three games, including four in a 352-yard performance against the eventual national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Despite his stellar performance, the loss to Ohio State was the first in a long line of games in which Kiel would be plagued by injuries.

The rib injury suffered by Kiel against Ohio State would be re-aggravated several times throughout the 2014 season, and although he wouldn’t miss a game, he was knocked out of multiple contests. His durability concerns were well-known and acted like a target for defenders every time there was an opportunity to get in a hit on the quarterback.

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The 2015 season was almost a mirror image of 2014 for Kiel as he has some tremendous highlights, such as completing all 15 passes for 319 yards and five touchdowns against Central Florida, as well as lowlights, like missing two games after being carted off the field with a concussion against Memphis. NFL teams have to be impressed with his arm talent, however durability concerns have put his draft stock in question.

When he is able to stay healthy, Kiel is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He delivers the ball accurately to all levels of the field with enough arm strength to drive the ball downfield and into tight windows. He isn’t just a gunslinger either. Kiel greatly improved his decision making from 2014 to 2015.

On third downs, he completed over 61 percent of his passes, which was better than 13 of the 15 quarterbacks (Brandon Doughty and Cody Kessler the exceptions) selected in the 2016 NFL Draft. Even more impressive, 57.5 percent of his third-down throws resulted in first downs, which was more than five percentage points higher than any QB selected in this year’s draft (Carson Wentz was tops among those drafted at 52.3 percent).

Not only was Kiel smart with the ball, he was also mentally tough. He demonstrated a very good ability to bounce back from mistakes, averaging 3.5 points per drive following a turnover. To once again compare that to the 2016 draft class, only Doughty and Kevin Hogan averaged more.

So why isn’t Kiel the presumptive number one pick in next year’s draft? While he’s mentally tough and smart on the field, NFL teams will want to dig into what’s going on in his head off the field. Although Kiel has never been suspended or faced legal trouble, how he handled his college enrollment and the fact that he decommitted or transferred from three schools is concerning. Is it fair to criticize a teenager for struggling with his college decision? That’s debatable, but NFL teams investing five years and millions of dollars in a first-round pick want to make sure a prospect, especially a QB, has his head on straight. His answers to those questions, as well as the real reason why he missed this past season’s Hawaii Bowl (everything from family problems to following his QB coach and offensive coordinator to Kentucky was rumored), will be an important part of his evaluation.

Durability is another obvious weakness at this point. While he fought through an early-season rib injury to play in every game as a sophomore, the fact that he was knocked out of numerous games is a concern. Even more concerning is the head injury he suffered against Memphis in 2015. He only missed two games, but with two bye weeks thrown in, he went a month between appearances. Staying healthy will be extremely important for Kiel to climb draft boards.

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That brings us to 2016. Gunner Kiel is now a fifth-year senior about to begin his final season of college football. Proving his worth to the NFL won’t be easy, as it’s not even a lock that he’ll begin the season as the starter. Sophomore Hayden Moore, who went 1-2 in three starts last year, and redshirt freshman Ross Trail will be Kiel’s main competition. His climb back to the top of the depth chart has already hit a snag this year as a pulled muscle in his shoulder has limited Kiel in practice and prevented him from participating in Cincinnati’s spring game. With a new QB coach and offensive coordinator in place, that’s valuable time he’s missing out on.

Even if Kiel does win the starting job, he’s going to have to adjust to an entirely new receiving corps. Six of the Bearcats top seven pass catchers from a year ago are no longer with the team. This includes Shaq Washington, the program’s all-time leader in receptions, and Chris Moore, who holds the school record for career touchdown catches. Senior Nate Cole, who had 19 receptions last season, is the only receiver on the roster who caught more than four passes in 2015.

Ultimately the decision on who starts at QB for the Bearcats belongs to head coach Tommy Tuberville. With a glorified scrimmage against Tennessee-Martin to start the season, Tuberville can wait until the September 10th showdown against Purdue to commit to one signal caller. This will be a giant hurdle for Kiel to clear, however if he does win the job, the NFL will be watching. There’s no denying his potential, but the time is now for Kiel to cash in on his talents.

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It’s Now or Never for Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel to Impress NFL

By Shawn Spencer | May 17, 2016

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