AFC Championship Preview: New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos
The 2016 AFC Championship Game, Brady v. Manning XVII, whatever you’d like to call it, it’s going down on Sunday.
Yes, it’s happening. The New England Patriots will indeed travel to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos for a chance to play in the Super Bowl. It’s a rematch of their Week 12 meeting that saw the Broncos erase a 14-point, fourth quarter deficit, only to defeat the Patriots in overtime, 30-23.
But this isn’t the regular season anymore. There are mile high implications this time around.
And, regardless of how you feel about all of the Brady v. Manning talk, it is in all likelihood the final time these two legends will square off against each other.
Brady holds a commanding 11-5 overall record over Manning, but they’re currently deadlocked at two games apiece in the playoffs. Whoever comes out on top will likely get the last laugh as far as their head-to-head postseason record goes.
Outside of the two signal-callers, each team has a plethora of star players that could determine the outcome.
Still, the deciding factor of this highly anticipated matchup may very well come down to the play of the defenses, not Brady or Manning. Both are ranked in the top-10 of total defense; Denver is first, while New England is ninth.
With so much at stake, the Broncos and Patriots will take the field on Sunday hoping to keep their magical seasons alive. Let’s break down why each team could punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
Why New England Will Win
The Patriots are finally healthy and it showed in their 27-20 divisional round victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Slot-receiver extraordinaire Julian Edelman returned to the starting lineup and hauled in 10 catches for 100 yards. Fellow shifty slot-machine Danny Amendola also looked to be at full strength against the Chiefs, as did star tight end Rob Gronkowski.
All three form one of the more dangerous trios in the league, and when healthy, take a considerable amount of pressure off of Tom Brady’s shoulders. In the Patriots overtime loss to the Broncos, Amendola and Edelman were sidelined, and it clearly took a toll on their offense.
The presence of Brady’s three favorite targets, coupled with the quarterback’s historically quick release, will make it increasingly difficult to slow down their offense, regardless of severely troublesome offensive line issues and the lack of a true running game.
Defensively, New England has been home to one of the better units in the NFL this season. A few key players, those being linebackers Jamie Collins (back) and Don’t’a Hightower (sprained left MCL), as well as defensive end Chandler Jones (right knee), are dealing with various ailments, but should be ready to go by kickoff.
Similarly to Edelman and Amendola, Collins did not play back in Week 12, and Hightower left the primetime showdown early with a knee injury.
Even at somewhat good health, the Patriots should be able to get after an immobile Peyton Manning and help shut down the Broncos rushing attack.
Why Denver Will Win
Dominating defense (and a little “Mile High Magic”) has led the Broncos to this point, and there’s no evidence to suggest that it won’t again lead the way versus the Patriots. Much like their inner-conference championship opponents, Denver has dealt with injuries on both sides of ball this season and have managed to fight on through it. Their offensive line, in particular, has been ravaged by injuries and is the major reason as to why the Broncos offense has been so wildly inconsistent.
However, against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the divisional round, Denver’s line stood firm and gave Peyton Manning ample time in the pocket to deliver some nice throws down the field. If the O-line can keep Manning upright and open up holes for running backs C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman like they did in their first meeting with New England, they’ll be tough to stop.
Running the ball against the Patriots will undoubtedly be the key to good fortune for the Broncos, but again, it’ll be up to Denver’s revamped “Orange Crush” to control the pace of the game. Tom Brady has his favorite targets back, so the Broncos defense will need to get to him in a hurry, something leading edge-rusher Von Miller fully understands.
Denver is home to the best defense in the league, secondary and all (if Chris Harris Jr. plays, that is), and with consistent pressure from Miller and Co., the Patriots offense will look less superhuman and more, well, human.
Prediction
There’s a reason that these two teams have consistently been the best in the AFC for the past few years.
New England and Denver match up with each other beautifully, and are just loaded with talent and playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Even though the newly made rivals have traded barbs over the radio airwaves and on social media throughout the week, they’re about to take part in what should be nothing short of a memorable contest.
Nonetheless, Brady v. Manning XVII will be decided by which team takes care of the ball with more efficiency. When the Broncos commit turnovers, it’s usually been in bunches, and spells bad news for the team, no matter how great their defense has been.
And back in Week 12, the whole course of the game changed for New England after returner Chris Harper muffed a punt in the fourth quarter deep in Patriots’ territory.
That being said, Denver’s receivers will do a better job of holding onto the ball (suffered a staggering nine drops versus Pittsburgh), while Manning will deliver a handful of big throws in clutch moments as their defense slows down the Brady Bunch just enough to help vault the Broncos back into Super Bowl.
Final Score: Broncos 27, Patriots 24