New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: NFL Game Picks Week 12
By Erik Lambert
Nov 2, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) at the line of scrimmage during the fourth quarter of New England
The classic of the AFC is set to square off on Sunday Night Football. Home field advantage in the playoffs could well go to the winner between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. So which of them pulls it off?
Backdrop:
This was supposed to be another classic showdown between the two best quarterbacks of a generation, and maybe ever. Instead Tom Brady won’t have Peyton Manning there to try foiling the Patriots’ undefeated streak. The Broncos will look to lean on their strong defense and revised Gary Kubiak-approved running game to make this the titanic AFC clash it should be.
Brady faces perhaps the best secondary in the NFL without one of his key targets in Julian Edelman. Brock Osweiler performed well in his first career start but he’s about to take a gigantic step up in competition against a masterfully coached Patriots defense.
Matchup To Watch:
SS T.J. Ward vs. TE Rob Gronkowski
This showdown actually has some history. Few might not remember that it was T.J. Ward who delivered the hit that knocked Rob Gronkowski out for the season with a torn ACL in 2013. The ripple effect it caused saw the Patriots lose the AFC championship that season to, wait for it, the Broncos.
Ward is already a terrific run defender but many don’t give him credit for his ability to cover tight ends. He shut down Martellus Bennett last week and made plays against both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in Indianapolis. He knows how to match up with top players at that position, and there is no doubt Gronkowski is the focal point of that Patriots attack. Shut him down, shut Brady down.
Key Stat:
The key to stopping New England hasn’t changed. Find a way to get Brady on the ground. Teams that do it often find they win. The 38-year old has only been sacked 22 times this season but four times in the past two games. He had an interception in each of them. That is what the Broncos defense must focus on.
Even without DeMarcus Ware, they still have a legitimate pass rush led by Von Miller. Aided by their secondary in coverage and a raucous home crown, this is as good a chance as any that Denver front is likely to have to hit the future Hall of Famer.
Prediction: Broncos win 21-20
That’s right, calling for the big upset here. The biggest reason is the Patriots offense against that Broncos defense. It’s a bad matchup without Julian Edelman. As brilliant as Brady is, unless he gets help from the running game it’s hard seeing him engineer a typical New England game on the road. Provided Osweiler doesn’t blow it, Denver wins a nail biter.