NFL Draft: Why the Number One Pick Hype is Useless

Every year we’re talking about who will be the potential number one selection. Which guy has improved his stock to the top and finds himself worthy of the first pick? While we can put a rubber band around the potential number one picks, it’s often hard to judge which team will end up selecting that player first overall.

It’s easy in college to predict winners and losers based off record but in the NFL it’s truly “Any Given Sunday”. For many years the Browns have been looked at as the “doormat” of the NFL, but surprisingly enough they haven’t owned the number one pick since 2000 when they selected Courtney Brown. In fact, in the last 15 years only the Texans have owned the first pick in the draft more than once. They’ve held it three times, and once was as an expansion team.

Oct 25, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford (7) reacts on the sidelines in the fourth quarter. The Panthers defeated the Falcons 27-16 at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

So in comes the question of how much does the number one selection matter and should teams base their season around it? Well in the past 15 years, 8 out of the 15 selections have made at least one Pro Bowl. Of the seven that haven’t there’s two that haven’t been in the league more than three years so they get a pass. Of the eight that have made the Pro Bowl only four players have three or more Pro Bowls. That means that 4 out of the past 15 number one selections have gone on to have careers that are up to “standards.” That’s about a 26% chance that you’ll get a superstar out of the number one selection.

To break it down even further, two of those four are quarterbacks (Eli Manning & Michael Vick) and the other two are an offensive tackle (Jake Long) and a defensive end (Mario Williams). These are all notable names and they’ve all flashed their times of greatness, but none are your top picks for household names outside of their city.

Now there’s always the campaigning by fans to tank the season for the number one pick, most notably by the Colts when #SuckforLuck became a thing. In the last 10 years, 40% of the quarterbacks selected have made the Pro Bowl. Also, 70% of those quarterbacks have led their team to at least one playoff appearance. You might not achieve a super star player when selecting a quarterback with the first pick, but you are greatly increasing your chances of becoming a more competitive football team.

Teams that could possibly be selecting a quarterback first overall this year look like the Browns, Saints, 49ers, Lions, Texans and Cowboys. The Lions have been rumored to be trying to move Matthew Stafford, while the Browns and 49ers don’t seem so hot on their quarterbacks of the future. The Texans don’t have a solid option behind center and both the Saints and Cowboys have aging quarterbacks of their own.

More from NFL Draft

While the non-quarterback selections of Jake Long and Mario Williams produced seven Pro Bowls, it’s the look of Eric Fisher and the young, yet fragile, Jadeveon Clowney that seem to be starting a trend. While they had all the measurables and the stats in college to be the top guy selected, they’ve gotten off to a rather slow NFL career. Clowney has only played in 11 games in his two-year career registering one sack and Eric Fisher was demoted earlier this off-season.

The other non-quarterback selected in the past 10 years was Courtney Brown. who was riddled with injuries in his time in Cleveland. Brown showed dominance when on the field, but struggled to stay healthy and was eventually out of the league after six years.

For teams who could possibly be selecting number one overall that don’t need a quarter (Chargers, Titans, Ravens, Jaguars and Buccaneers) they also find themselves at a 40% chance of selecting a super star like player. Although only five non quarterbackss in the last 10 years have been selected for a small sample size it’s still something to be considered. I would almost expect those teams to shop the top pick and trade down for more fire power, but that’s not to say a player won’t catch their eye that they absolutely can’t miss.

The NFL draft is a true roll of the dice scenario. First round picks and of course number one selections are supposed to have the highest probability of success and those who trickle down the draft have a much lower belief in being a staple in the NFL. It’s impossible to predict Richard Sherman being the player he is after being selected in the 5th round or that Tom Brady would own four Super Bowl rings as a 6th round draft choice. That’s what makes the draft difficult. While guys that look like they’ve got it all together in college (Trent Richardson) get selected towards the top of the draft it’s sometimes the guys who fall that have better careers. Recent examples would point to Lamar Miller, who was selected with the 97th pick.

When the question is asked, should a team tank the season for the number one pick? I’d have to say no, unless you’re drafting a quarterback. The probability of selecting a true super star with the first pick of the draft is no different from the probability of selecting a true super star within the top 10. Quarterbacks are one of a kind so the excuse for them is worth it but for every other position has about two or three guys that fit the mold. If teams could properly predict the success rate of players then of course the number one pick is a diamond selection. Unfortunately with the threshold of talent so tight-knit, it’s hard to truly make that decision and that’s why the number one selection truly isn’t what it once was.

Home/NFL Draft