Assessing Chicago Bears Trade Market For Jay Cutler
By Erik Lambert
Nov 9, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 55-14. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
At first glance no team would want to touch a $126 million contract that the Chicago Bears handed Jay Cutler. However, there are some important details indicating otherwise.
Obviously a trade midseason is not beneficial to the Bears since it doesn’t solve anything. Besides, the deadline for deals is long past. So anything that happens must wait until the off-season begins for 2015. At this point the contract situation for Cutler changes considerably.
SALARY CAP
From a salary cap standpoint, the 31-year old quarterback is the 6th highest paid player this season, accounting for $18.5 million, which is even more than Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. No team will take that on. However, the number becomes much more manageable next season at $16.5 million.
Any team, provided their cap situation isn’t desperate can handle that at least for one season. The reason to say that is because in 2016 the holder of the contract could essentially send Cutler packing and gain $14 million in cap space while only gaining $3 million in dead money. Essentially a team would gain Cutler as an expensive rental for one season. If he pans out they have the deal in place to keep him, if he doesn’t they can cut him with minimal effect on their money structure.
STATUS
The next question to ask is what would the receiving team be getting? Cutler will be 32-years old in 2015. That is by no means over the hill in NFL terms. On the years he has posted 2,695 yards and 22 touchdowns. That puts him on pace for 4,312 yards and 35 touchdowns. Those are very respectable numbers.
The great sticking point of course is his ongoing problems with turnovers. Through ten games he has 12 interceptions and five lost fumbles. Any team willing to take that on would have to accept the reality that it’s likely something they can’t fix. Therefore the interested party must trust they have a strong enough defense in place to offset or at least minimize the problem.
VALUE
As with any trade, it comes down to compensation. What will the Chicago Bears be willing to take in exchange for Jay Cutler? To best assess his value, it would help to evaluate recent trades involving quarterbacks, what they cost each team and extrapolate from that.
In 2002, the New England Patriots traded Drew Bledsoe to the Buffalo Bills. Bledsoe was a three-time Pro Bowler who had just lost his starting job to Tom Brady. What makes this particular deal interesting is Bledsoe signed a record 10-year, $103 million contract at the beginning of the 2001 season. He was 30-years old when the Bills offered a future 1st round pick in 2003. Bledsoe responded with a Pro Bowl season and wound up helping the Bills to their last winning season in 2004.
Trent Green was 31-years old, had never made a Pro Bowl and suffered a torn ACL two years prior when the St. Louis Rams dealt him to Kansas City in exchange for a 1st and 5th round picks. A big part of that deal was how well Green played during the 2000 season in relief of Kurt Warner. The Chiefs got a good deal as he went on to reach two Pro Bowls.
So there are examples out there of teams taking chances on veteran quarterbacks. With Cutler being a bit older it’s unlikely the Bears will get a 1st or 2nd round pick but to the right team a 3rd or 4th round choice is not out of the question.
Much of how it all plays out will depend on the quarterback landscape when the 2015 off-season begins and which teams will need help at the position.