NFL Picks Week 11: AFC Wild Card Must-Wins

In this set of NFL Picks (Week 11), we’ll be spotlighting the AFC Wild Card race to see who needs a crucial win to stay on pace for the 2014 NFL playoffs. Week 11 might just feature the biggest slate of matchups deciding the Wild Card, so let’s dive right in.

Buffalo Bills (5-4) vs. Miami Dolphins (5-4), 8:25 Thursday night, NFL Network

Of all the games this week, you could argue this one is the matchup to watch. I’m calling it “winner take all” due to the tough schedule both teams have to face after this one. Coming in at 5-4, both the Dolphins and Bills need a win – and it’s going to start with the running game.

Lamar Miller must get going for the Dolphins, but they sure seem to like rookie Damien Williams. I don’t trust either guy, which is why I give the edge to the Bills rushing attack and their top-notch group of backs.

As balanced as this game will be, I’m giving the edge to the Dolphins. Their defense flies around and battles weekly, while rookie Jarvis Landry from LSU is emerging as a very nice threat for Ryan Tannehill.

Pick: Dolphins

Houston Texans (4-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-3), 1:00 Sunday, CBS

Who would’ve thought that a home, afternoon game for Cleveland in Week 11 would be one of the most important of the season? Brian Hoyer and Co. are getting things done and are seemingly getting hot at the right time to face a tough Texans squad.

Like the Bills/Dolphins matchup, I’ll be looking for the rushing attacks and the offensive line play here.

Cleveland has been feeding rookie Terrance West from Towson early and often in tough games this year, a trend that should continue. He’s only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, but Kyle Shanahan appears to like him in divisional/tough AFC matchups.

As for Houston, it appears they’ll indeed have Arian Foster on Sunday. Foster has already picked up six 100+ yard rushing games this year. With good blocking up front from an O-line that has the potential (that’s the key word) to be very good, Houston could be well on their way to an impressive win.

Pick: Browns

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-5), 1:00 Sunday, CBS

That little ‘1’ in the tie column could prove to be costly for the Bengals, especially if they finish their season with 9 wins. Somebody in the AFC North is bound to finish with a 10-6 record, and with that mark, they’ll beat out Cincinnati for the division win if they drop three more games. With that said, it’s safe to throw out there that this is a game the Bengals can’t lose.

The Saints are coming off a gut-wrenching loss to the San Francisco 49ers in a game where Sean Peyton’s team didn’t play particularly bad. Mark Ingram rushed for 120 yards and Jimmy Graham reeled in 10 passes, but the defense wasn’t enough to hold off Colin Kaepernick for a game-tying drive to finish off the 4th quarter.

The two keys for the Bengals in this one are simple: shut down Graham, and exploit the Saints secondary.

With the weapons Andy Dalton has in his arsenal, the Bengals offense should have no problem putting up a 30 spot by the time the 4th quarter ends. The real question lies within the Bengals defense, one that has faced a great deal of adversity this year.

Graham is the obvious spotlight, but what about rookie Brandin Cooks and seasoned-vet Marcus Colston – who already has two 100+ yard games this year? The secondary in Cincinnati is decent, but it’s proved to struggle against units that out-match them in numbers.

To win this one, they’ll need all hands on deck in the back-end to make it a long day for Drew Brees. If they can’t, you’ll be seeing a lot of “season on the line” mode in the coming weeks.

Pick: Saints

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3), 1:00 Sunday, FOX

Very quietly, this one might just be the best game of the week. The battle of the two 6-3’s won’t just be good on paper, but it could prove to be one of the best defensive battles of the season.

For Kansas City, they’ll need to pull off a miraculous upset to get the job done here. Seattle is on a three-game winning streak after starting the year 3-3, and Marshawn Lynch is playing some of his best football at the right time (269 yards, 6 TDs in last three games). This game is just the start of a brutal schedule for the Chiefs. After this, they’ll have to play the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and San Diego Chargers in four of their last six games. If that isn’t a schedule of doom, I’m not sure what is.

The only hope Kansas City will have here is the emergence of WR Dwayne Bowe. He’s been seemingly the only target for Alex Smith lately, but the veteran is doing the job. He has at-least five catches in his last four games – including his 8/93/0 line last week against the Bills.

Richard Sherman vs. Dwayne Bowe might just decide this one. Sit back and grab the popcorn!

Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-7), 8:30 Monday night, ESPN

We wouldn’t even have to list this game if it weren’t for last week. After the “epic collapse” against the Jets last Sunday, the Steelers won’t have anybody assuming anything when it comes to easy games from here on out.

The Zach Mettenberger era in Tennessee has only been active for two games, but it hasn’t exactly gotten off to a smooth start. The rookie from LSU has already tossed three bad interceptions and is struggling to put together big drives. Sure, his weapons around him are fairly weak, but things aren’t getting done in the passing game early on.

To win this game, the Titans will have to rely on the running game to get them out of holes Pittsburgh could potentially put them in. To do that, don’t be shocked to see a heavy dose of another rookie – Bishop Sankey from Washington – on Sunday. Sankey has received 16+ carries in three of the Titans’ last four games, and has averaged 4.0 yards per carry this year. His youth against the aging Steeler front could lead to some mismatches in the open-field.

I’ll be watching rookie Martavis Bryant for Pittsburgh. As impressive as the 2014 NFL Draft class has been, the wide receiver group is certainly living up to their hype. Bryant wasn’t expected to make an impact right away, but he has at-least one touchdown catch in each of his last four games – six overall. Will the touchdown machine be found by another in Ben Roethlisberger? The numbers say yes!

Pick: Steelers