Sunday NFL Picks: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

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Dec 29, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) meet at midfield after the game at Soldier Field. The Green Bay Packers win 33-28. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

One of the most anticipated NFL matchups of week 4 is the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.  Which team comes out victorius?

Subplots

Julius Peppers returns to Soldier Field as a Packer

Former Pro Bowl defensive end had some great years in Chicago but his time there came to an end to contractual differences and the fact his production had slipped.  Now the 34-year old returns as a member of Green Bay, hoping to show the Bears that their decision was the wrong one.

Bears eyeing revenge for heartbreaking loss last season

Meanwhile, the Bears still probably have visions of that thrilling but ultimately gut wrenching NFL game against the Packers last December in which they fell with just seconds remaining on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass on 4th and 8.  To date it was probably the most demoralizing loss of the storied rivalry, but also one the Bears have used to develop resiliency.  They are out to exorcise some demons this week.

Key Matchup:

Jordy Nelson and Kyle Fuller

No other receiver on the Packers offense has really gotten going except Jordy Nelson, so the Bears would be smart to focus their attention on him.  That will be the job of rookie Kyle Fuller.  He has the size needed to match the 6’3″ Nelson and has proven more adept in coverage than first thought.  How he performs against Rodgers’ favorite target will be the single biggest indicator of who wins the game.

Quick Stats of Interest

Green Bay has the 30th ranked run defense

Matt Forte totaled over 230 rushing yards and 3 TDs against Packers in 2013

Jay Cutler is 1-9 against Packers

Bears have lost four-straight at Soldier Field to Packers

Packers have allowed 9 sacks on Aaron Rodgers.

Bears defense has 8 sacks in three games.

Pick:  GB 21, CHI 20

The Chicago Bears are an improving team that is on the right track but the Green Bay Packers are desperate.  Another loss would put them at 1-3 with two losses in the division.  They will put together just enough plays to escape with a win.