NFL Draft Notebook: Dolphins' biggest need and the growing case for Arch Manning

After taking the month of May to recharge, finalize our 2027 NFL Draft board, review the 2026 NFL Draft, and spend time working with quarterbacks at Blair Quarterback Academy (BQA), NFL Draft Notebook is back. This week's edition takes a closer look at one of the NFL's biggest roster concerns, why Arch Manning is living up to the hype as a top quarterback prospect, and several players who are generating buzz among NFL scouts and opposing coaches.

Could the Dolphins have the worst receiving group ever?

The Miami Dolphins received brutal reviews recently in SB Nation’s NFL position rankings, earning bottom-tier grades at wide receiver, tight end, and defensive back. They even suggested Miami may currently have one of the worst wide receiver rooms of all time.

Looking at the roster, it is easy to understand why the group is being criticized so heavily. Miami’s leading returning receiver is Malik Washington, who caught just 46 passes last season. While Washington is a solid role player, the former undrafted free agent lacks the physical traits typically associated with a true No. 1 receiver. At 5-foot-8, he does not have the size advantage to consistently win in contested situations, and he also lacks elite top-end speed to fully compensate for that limitation.

The rest of the receiver room does not inspire much confidence either. Tutu Atwell has struggled to live up to expectations since being selected in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, while Jalen Tolbert has failed to establish consistency during his NFL career. Tolbert has finished with fewer than 23 receptions in three of his four seasons, including just 18 catches last year.

The good news for Miami is the 2027 NFL Draft could feature one of the strongest wide receiver classes in recent memory. One player to watch closely is Ohio State superstar Jeremiah Smith, who already looks like one of the most dominant receiver prospects in years. Smith is a two-time All-American and joined Marvin Harrison Jr. as the only Buckeyes ever to record multiple 1,000-yard receiving seasons. He would also bring badly needed size to Miami’s offense at 6-foot-3 and 223 pounds, consistently using his frame to overpower defensive backs and win through contact.

Another elite receiver prospect to monitor is Cam Coleman, who could post massive numbers this season catching passes from Arch Manning at Texas.

If the Dolphins do end up with the No. 1 overall pick as many early projections expect, they could face a franchise-defining decision. Miami may have to choose between drafting a potential franchise quarterback like Arch Manning or selecting an elite receiver prospect to rebuild one of the weakest supporting casts in the NFL. That decision becomes even more important after signing Malik Willis this offseason and putting him in a situation where success will be extremely difficult without major upgrades around him.

Why Arch Manning is a legitimate franchise quarterback prospect

One of the most talked-about players in the 2027 NFL Draft class is Texas quarterback Arch Manning, which is expected considering he comes from one of football’s most recognizable families with Peyton and Eli Manning as his uncles. Still, Manning is far more than just a prospect with elite bloodlines. He already shows several traits NFL teams look for in a starting quarterback.

The biggest strength in Manning’s game is his arm talent combined with rapidly improving passing ability. He has shown he can make difficult off-platform throws and consistently push the ball downfield with impressive velocity. When operating from a clean pocket, he is especially dangerous attacking vertically. His growth as a passer also became clear late in the season, as he posted a QBR of 92 or higher in four of his final five games.

Another major positive is his athleticism, which separates him from Peyton and Eli at the same stage. Manning is highly effective in the sprint-out passing game and is a legitimate threat as a runner. That ability was on display when he broke off a 60-yard run against Michigan last season. In 2024, he also became the only FBS or NFL quarterback in the last 25 years to record a 75-plus-yard touchdown pass, a 65-yard rushing touchdown, and another 50-plus-yard touchdown pass in the same game against UTSA.

There is plenty to like about Manning’s overall projection, and he enters the season with a first-round grade on my board. However, he is not currently my top-ranked quarterback in the class. The main concern is how he has struggled at times against more complex defensive looks, particularly against Ohio State and Texas A&M last season. His accuracy can also become inconsistent when his footwork speeds up under pressure, which contributed to three games where he completed under 50 percent of his passes.

Even with those concerns, Manning has a strong chance to take a major step forward this season, especially with an improved supporting cast around him. That group includes star wide receiver Cam Coleman, who has the talent to become a top-10 pick in the future.

Center could be a focal point for the Vikings in the 2027 NFL Draft

One team loaded with draft capital in the 2027 NFL Draft is the Minnesota Vikings, who currently hold 10 total picks, including three third-round selections. One position the Vikings could target heavily with that extra draft capital is center.

The biggest reason center stands out as a potential need is the inconsistent play of current starter Blake Brandel. The former sixth-round pick has struggled to establish himself as an above-average starter. Last season, he earned just a 61.4 overall PFF grade and had consistent issues handling stunts and interior pressure. Those struggles also carried over from 2024, when he allowed 46 pressures and committed 11 penalties.

If Brandel does not make significant improvements this season, Minnesota could decide to move on from him in free agency next offseason. One potential replacement to watch is Iowa center Kade Pieper.

Pieper, who earned third-team All-Big Ten honors last season, allowed just one sack all year while playing guard. He is expected to move to center this season, which could further boost his draft stock. Along with his production, Pieper also brings elite athletic traits for the position. He set Iowa offensive line records with a 1.52-second 10-yard split and a 37-inch vertical jump.

If the Vikings were able to land Pieper in the 2027 NFL Draft, he could provide a significant long-term upgrade at the center position.

Not sold on Drew Mestemaker

One of the most overrated prospects entering the 2027 NFL Draft cycle is new Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who some analysts have already projected as a first-round pick.

When looking strictly at the numbers, it is easy to understand the hype. The former North Texas quarterback was named American Conference Offensive Player of the Year after leading the FBS with 4,379 passing yards. On paper, that production certainly looks worthy of early-round consideration.

However, when you turn on the film, the evaluation becomes much less impressive.

One of the biggest reasons for this is his limited physical tools. He is an average athlete who is unlikely to be much of a running threat in the NFL. He also lacks the arm strength teams typically want to see from a traditional pocket passer. While his arm is good enough for the college game, it does not consistently stand out on tape.

I also have concerns about his accuracy. While he completed an impressive 69 percent of his passes last season, his receivers were often forced to make difficult adjustments to the football. That likely helps explain why North Texas receivers were charged with 21 drops. Another concern is his tendency to lock onto his initial read and force too many passes into coverage.

While I am obviously not sold on Mestemaker, he does have a good chance to raise his draft stock this season. One of the biggest reasons is that he will be facing much better competition in the Big 12 than he did in the American Conference. He will also benefit from additional experience, as he enters the season with only 14 career starts.

With that being said, the first-round talk surrounding him right now is simply ridiculous. He has put up impressive numbers, but there are too many concerns with his physical tools, accuracy, and decision-making for him to be viewed as a first-round prospect entering the season.

Scouting Notes

• While the Cardinals used the third overall pick on Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, he still may not finish among the top 10 NFL running backs in carries next season. One reason is Mike LaFleur has historically preferred splitting touches between multiple backs during his time as an offensive coordinator. Another factor is Arizona already has two proven running backs in Tyler Allgeier and James Conner. The final reason is that Love is already accustomed to sharing carries, and giving him too heavy of a workload could reduce some of the explosiveness that makes him such a dangerous playmaker.

• Last preseason, I made the bold proclamation that Fernando Mendoza was the top quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft, and he backed it up by becoming the No. 1 overall pick. This preseason, I am making another bold statement about new Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Josh Hoover in that his game shares a lot of traits with Brock Purdy. Both quarterbacks are highly accurate passers who excel at fitting the ball into tight windows, and they are also similar athletes who do a great job of buying extra time in the pocket rather than relying on pure speed. While Hoover currently projects more as a mid-round NFL Draft pick, do not be surprised if he ends up outperforming expectations at the next level much like Purdy did.

• While Josh Hoover reminds me of Brock Purdy, another NFL comparison I see in this year’s quarterback class is Noah Fifita drawing similarities to 10-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson. The similarities start with both being shorter but athletic quarterbacks who excel at creating plays inside the pocket. They also process the game well and operate with strong command of their offenses. Fifita backed that up last season by throwing 29 touchdown passes against just six interceptions, with his touchdown total ranking eighth among qualified FBS quarterbacks. While it would be unrealistic to expect either Hoover or Fifita to fully live up to comparisons to Purdy and Wilson, their playing styles and strengths are undeniably similar.

"(QB Noah Fifita) is freaking electric. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the country. His off-schedule playmaking ability is unbelievable. When he gets flushed out of the pocket, the play begins."

ACC opposing coach to Athlon Sports

• One of the biggest positives coming out of Raiders camp is that fourth-round pick Jermod McCoy was a full participant during OTAs after concerns about his knee caused him to slide in the draft. If McCoy can stay healthy, the Raiders could end up with one of the biggest steals in the class, as the former Tennessee Volunteers cornerback likely would have been a first-round pick without the medical concerns. The last time McCoy played in 2024, the All-American defensive back earned an elite 89.6 PFF coverage grade while showing the fluid hips, quickness, and ball skills needed to develop into a high-level NFL starter.

• While Leonard Moore enters the season as the widely viewed top cornerback prospect in the NFL Draft, he may not even be the only first-round talent in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish secondary. DJ McKinney, who transferred from Colorado, also has the tools to hear his name called on Day 1. McKinney carried a first-round grade on my board entering last season before injuries hurt his production, but the physical traits still stand out. At 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, he has ideal size for an NFL corner along with the agility and recovery speed to stay attached to even the quickest receivers. If he can return to his 2024 form, McKinney has a legitimate shot to work his way back into late first-round discussion.

• One NFL Draft prospect who is already creating concerns for opposing ACC coaches is Justice Haynes, with one coach telling Athlon Sports, "I think he's going to be a big-time NFL back." That assessment is easy to understand after Haynes' breakout season at Michigan last year, where he averaged 122.4 rushing yards per game and an impressive 7.1 yards per carry before a foot injury cut his season short. Now with Georgia Tech, Haynes is an explosive runner who does a great job of bouncing off tacklers and has the type of playmaking ability that could make him one of the top running back prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft. 

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