One of the biggest draft disasters in recent memory is the San Francisco 49ers selecting Trey Lance. Once seen as a future franchise quarterback, he's now on his third team and unlikely to ever reach the potential that made him a top-3 pick. In this week’s NFL Draft Mailbag, we break down why his development went off the rails.
We also cover which college team could shock people this season, what to expect from Ben Johnson in his first year with the Bears, and my biggest scouting pet peeve. Have a question you want answered? Send me a tweet.
Q: Why do you think Trey Lance has struggled?
Two major issues have led to Lance’s struggles in the NFL. The first is his long history of injuries. He suffered a fractured finger in 2021 that lingered all season and a season-ending ankle injury in 2022. That kind of disruption can kill development, especially for a young quarterback still learning the position.
The second issue is his difficulty reading complex NFL defenses. This was something I noted in his college scouting report. He often missed open receivers at North Dakota State, and that has carried over to the pros. The root of the problem is his lack of game experience. He only played 19 games across three years in college, which is not nearly enough to build the instincts needed to succeed at the next level.
That said, there is still a flicker of hope. Lance showed flashes in the Hall of Fame game against Detroit, completing 13 of 20 passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns. He made some big-time throws and looked comfortable in the sprint-out passing game. Yes, it was against a vanilla preseason defense, but with a coach like Jim Harbaugh, there is a chance he could keep developing. In a year or two, he could sign with another team and get one more shot to compete for a starting job.
Trey Lance dropping it the bucket for KeAndre Lambert-Smith 🎯@ProFootballHOF Game on NBC
— NFL (@NFL) August 1, 2025
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/desvgOfDRA
Q: Who is your college surprise team of the year?
A team I expect to make a big jump this season is UCLA. The Bruins went just 5-7 last year, but that should change thanks to the arrival of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who currently holds a second-round grade on my draft board. What stands out with Iamaleava is his ability to make plays with both his arm and legs. He finished second in the SEC in completions of 50-plus yards with six and also ran for 364 yards last season.
I also expect him to become a more accurate passer under new offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri, who comes over from Indiana and should bring a more quarterback-friendly system.
Another player who could help fuel the turnaround is former Cal running back Jaivian Thomas. Thomas is an explosive back who has averaged over six yards per carry in each of the past two seasons. He should be the go-to guy in the Bruins’ backfield and has a strong shot to top 1,000 rushing yards.
If UCLA’s defense can improve on the 25 points per game it gave up last season, I can see them finishing around 9-4 and pushing for a top-25 spot.
Q: Will Ben Johnson be able to lead the Bears back to the playoffs?
Yes, I think Ben Johnson will finally lead the Bears back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020. There are several reasons for optimism, starting with the fact that Johnson is simply a more competent coach than Matt Eberflus. I don’t expect the kind of game management disasters we saw last season, especially in late-game collapses against Detroit and Washington.
Another reason is Caleb Williams. I expect him to bounce back after a rookie season that fell short of expectations. Johnson’s offense is far more quarterback-friendly and should help Williams process the field better and get the ball out on time. He’ll also have more protection, thanks to a reworked interior offensive line, and more weapons after the team added tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Finally, the division isn’t as strong this year. The Vikings are likely to take a step back with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. The Lions are due for some regression after going 15-2, and the Packers didn’t make any major upgrades. All of that opens the door for Chicago to take a big step forward and snag a playoff spot.
Q: Who is a group of 5 prospect to watch this season?
One of the more intriguing Group of Five prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft is Wyoming tight end John Michael Gyllenborg. He has several traits that could make him a strong day-three pick. At 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds, he’s one of the bigger tight ends in this class and moves surprisingly well for his size.
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Gyllenborg also has reliable hands and consistently makes catches in traffic, which is key for any tight end looking to stick in the NFL. The area he needs to improve most is blocking technique, especially his pad level. If he can clean that up, he could be a great fit for a team looking to develop a high-upside tight end.