If David Bailey proves himself during his rookie year, it will be clear he was a wiser pick than Arvell Reese in the 2026 NFL Draft. Should this bold prediction come true, the answer will be indisputable.
As the first of three draft picks made by the New York Jets, Bailey obviously enters Year 1 with the most pressure on him. He is not only the highest-drafted defensive player in franchise history, but he will also be compared to Reese, who many projected would be the Jets’ pick before the draft.
Why the Jets believed David Bailey was worth the gamble
There is no question that Reese is a skilled player who offers versatility as a hybrid linebacker, but Bailey excels when it comes to pure pass rushing. His outstanding performance at Texas Tech, where he led the country with 14.5 sacks, clearly clearly demonstrated his abilities.Â
Beyond the sacks, Bailey proved to be a disruptor along the defensive line with an astounding 21.3% pass-rush pressure rate and an ability to impact the passer even when he doesn’t get home. Bailey can get his hands up and bat the ball when he’s not putting opposing QBs on their back.
Although his explosiveness off the edge will be a focal point to his success in the NFL, if he can also grow more effective against the run, Bailey could morph into even more of a game-changer at the NFL level. In acknowledging his area of growth, the Jets rookie is confident he will strengthen what is considered one of his weaknesses.
"There's always going to be room for improvement," Bailey said, as transcribed by ESPN, "but I'm confident in my ability to play the run."
Back to his pass-rush upside. If Bailey is effective against the run as a three-down defender, he will have more opportunity to use his skillset in disrupting the pocket. How effective will he be?
Very effective according to this NFL Mocks bold prediction for the Jets rookie in his first NFL season.
With his high motor and multitude of moves getting to the quarterback, Bailey is going to be a force off the edge, especially against AFC East opponents who will have to face him twice a season. With a front seven that features Harrison Phillips, T’Vondre Sweat and Will McDonald IV at the other edge, Bailey will have a chance to make noise early and often in his first season.
David Bailey could put Jets rookie records on notice
The prediction here is Bailey breaks the Jets rookie sacks record of 10.0 set by Hugh Douglas back in 1995. Could he challenge Jevon Kearse’s overall NFL rookie record of 14.5 sacks?Â
His performance will largely be determined by his ability to defend against the run and how efficiently he adapts to the pace of the NFL and the physicality of opposing tackles. As long as he out performs Reese, Jets fans will and should be happy with his production.
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