Arch Manning is a 6’4, 226-pound redshirt junior at Texas. After attending Isidore Newman High School in New Orleans, Louisiana, Manning was a 5-star recruit on 247 Sports and the first overall player in the nation in the 2023 class.
Manning is also the next in line of the Manning family, going back to his grandfather, Archie, and his uncles Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.
The Texas quarterback has the ideal blend of size, arm talent, and foot speed that NFL General Managers dream of when it comes to quarterback prospects, making him an early candidate to be the number one overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
In this post we'll go through an overview of Manning as a prospect, his strengths and weaknesses as they stand today, and where he could improve over the course of the 2026 college football season.
Arch Manning NFL Draft profile
- Position: Quarterback
- School: Texas
- Height: 6'4
- Weight: 226 LBS
- Class: Redshirt Junior
- Hometown: New Orleans, Louisiana
Arch Manning's Career Stats
- Games Played: 25*
- Passing yards: 4,132*
- Completion percentage: 62.3%*
- Passing touchdowns: 35*
- Interceptions: 9*
- Rushing yards: 514*
- Rushing touchdowns: 14*
*statistics do not include 2026 stats and will be updated
What are Arch Manning's biggest strengths?
- The first thing that stands out when watching Manning is just the way he throws the ball.
- He has a lower release than most quarterbacks - similar to Matthew Stafford or Phillip Rivers - but it looks very natural to him. And best of all, the ball flies off his hands when he releases it.
- That energy on the ball, plus his overall size and total body strength, allow him to make throws to all parts of the field with drive.
- The next thing that stands out is his athleticism. Fans need to remember he's not the son of Peyton or Eli, but of Cooper Manning, a former college wide receiver.
- Arch is able to use his legs on designed runs, scrambles, and to extend the play. Whether he is looking to get out of the pocket or maneuver in the pocket, he's very comfortable and prolific when using his legs.
Where can Arch Manning improve?
- The first thing to look for in Manning's season in 2026 is a hot start. In 2025, his first year as the starter, things started out shaky.
- Manning's 2025 season didn't get consistently rolling until the end of October. Which is understandable for a first-year starter. But he should expect to carry that momentum into 2026, and not build back up slowly throughout the year.
- Many are going to mention "accuracy" as something for Arch to improve on in 2026, and from a certain point of view that is correct.
- Manning has a tendency to spray throws from time to time, a common outcome for young quarterbacks with strong arms.
- And if things get messy in the pocket and he makes a throw when his mechanics aren't aligned, things can go badly.
- But in a vacuum, Manning is not an inaccurate quarterback. He regularly gets balls where they need to be with good timing. And against a zone defense, he can find the windows as they open and get the ball through them.
- He won't face a lot of man coverage this year, but as he gets more experience, I also expect him to throw with better anticipation and feel against man coverage, and not just rely on open windows against zones for completions.
NFL Draft projection
Arch Manning has an excellent chance of being the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. And surprises happen every year, but based on the likliest range of outcomes, I expect him at worst to be a top five pick next April.
Manning can operate in any scheme. But one of the benefits for him at Texas is how open the offense feels. There's movement everywhere and plenty of space for him to work from. I think back to the Ken Dorsey days with Josh Allen in Buffalo. A lot of spread out formations with a tight end or running back even split out wide, giving Allen room to operate. Something like that early in Manning's NFL career would bring a lot of success.
Pro comparison
After taking the entirety of the 2025 season into account, my comp for Manning right now is Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
First, you have the pedigree. Lawrence was considered the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck when he was coming out of Clemson.
Next is the prototypical size and arm talent. Manning is listed at 6'4, 226, with rumors he's closer to 6'5, 230. Lawrence was lighter coming out (219), but a little taller at 6'6. And there isn't/wasn't a throw that either couldn't make coming out.
Both are very mobile. As a sophomore, Lawrence rushed 103 times for 563 yards and nine touchdowns. Last year, Manning went 92-399-10.
But the defining weakness for Lawrence coming out, that has held true for him in the NFL, is the sprays. Three to four times per game, a ball is going to sail two feet too high. And that's one of Manning's biggest faults in his game today.
When Lawrence got to the NFL, hopes were high that he'd develop into a top-five quarterback in the league. As the years have gone by, that number has slowly declined, and right now he lives in that 10-14 range at the position.
After whatever early-career hiccups happen, Manning's traits are too good not to at least project an average or above-average quarterback, like Lawrence. But if he can work out some of those remaining kinks, we could have serious conversations about reaching heights Lawrence missed.
Final evaluation
Overall Grade: 92/100
Draft Projection: Top 5
Arch Manning has everything teams are looking for in a quarterback prospect. He has size, arm talent, athleticism, NFL bloodlines, and a history of trusting the process as he grew in his role at Texas. Plus, with all of the NFL bloodlines, he's going to be well-prepared for what the NFL asks of him.
The floor for Manning is a league-average quarterback who can make some incredible plays, but perhaps always has "accuracy issues" and goes through hot and cold spells.
But the ceiling, is about as high as it gets.
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