Arch Manning saw his 2026 NFL Draft stock fall in a Week 1 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Can the Texas Longhorns quarterback bounce back and reclaim his status as the top prospect everyone is watching?
The Bad
Manning and those high expectations entering the 2025 college football season was dealt a reality check going up against the defending national champions. Not only was Manning and the Longhorns facing one of the nation’s top defenders in safety Caleb Downs, but they were also going up against a former NFL defensive coordinator in Matt Patricia who now holds the title at OSU.
In holding Manning to a 58.0 quarterback rating, Patricia and the Buckeyes defense served doubt into the readiness of Manning who only started two games prior to the matchup. With just 170 yards passing with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, the 6-foo-4 sophomore appeared rushed and not ready for primetime which gives doubt of him declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Good
The good news for Manning and Longhorns fans is it was the first game of the season, and they were going up against a top ranked team. Despite the lackluster effort of their offense, the Longhorns only lost 14-7. The loss only dropped Texas to a No. 7 ranking in the league and there is plenty of time and opportunity for Manning to bounce back as a highly watched quarterback prospect.
Whether it is the 2026 NFL Draft or the 2027 NFL Draft, the arm talent of Manning is clear. What scouts should watch is how Manning matures and builds character from the struggles vs Ohio State.
The silver lining
In speaking with Pro Football Focus, NFL legend Tom Brady called the early struggles a “blessing” in disguise as it gives Manning the adversity he needs for growth.
"There needs to be resilience built up in the quarterback as well. So even though he didn’t have his best game today, and they lost, if he uses this to his advantage, Arch, he’s going to be tougher for it, and he’s going to have a better next game because of it," the seven-time Super Bowl champion said. "And I always felt like you’ve got to deal with a lot of adversity, from a quarterback standpoint, to toughen you up to be the true leader for the organization…
"Arch has years beyond this to still play in college if he wants, but it's going to be up to him to see how he really wants to dig within himself and how deep he wants to dig in order to be successful. But there's nothing to show me that he won't be that. He's been that way in high school and even last year. He's got a lot of good people around him that know exactly what to do."
The better news is that Manning will have a huge opportunity for a bounce back as Texas will face San Jose State in Week 2.
San Jose State Spartans vs Texas Longhorns game details: How to watch, betting odds
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025 | Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium
- TV: ABC or ESPN | Live Stream: Fubo TV (try for free)
- Betting Odds: Texas -37.5; over/under 52.5 (via DraftKings)
Arch Manning passing yards 250+ odds vs. San Jose State
Arch Manning over 250 passing in Week 2 matchup: +1106 (Bet $10 to win $120).
This is an easy one as Manning has had an entire week to stew over his performance. San Jose shouldn’t stand a chance in this one as the highly watched quarterback prospect will find his footing and his arm in this game. In a homecoming thrashing, Manning will form connections with Ryan Wingo, Jaime Ffrench and tight ends Spencer Shannon and Jack Endries in an explosive air attack in Texas.
Stock up: Although against a team the Longhorns should demolish, there is still a chance Manning’s draft stock falls if he doesn’t explode with a big passing yard performance. If the offense struggles to put up points, there will be some concern. Against Ohio State, Manning gets a big of a pass, but if he doesn’t anchor an offensive explosion, he becomes the problem.