Drake Maye heads to the Broncos. Kyler Murray stays put in the desert. The Eagles and Chiefs get richer. All of this takes place in NFLMocks’ latest mock draft.
The 2023 NFL regular season is only three weeks old, and the draft order is far from set in stone. Look no further than the Arizona Cardinals, for example. Many analysts — myself included — wondered aloud if the franchise was actively tanking for the No. 1 overall selection. A 28-16 drubbing of the highly-touted Dallas Cowboys quickly put that talk to bed — at least for now.
The Cardinals also own a 2024 first-round pick from the Texans, thanks to a draft day trade involving the pick that became Will Anderson Jr. Even Houston is finding more success than most expected, throttling the Jaguars by 20 points in Jacksonville on Sunday.
If The Cardinals Aren’t Picking No. 1 Overall In This Mock Draft… Who Is?
So, if Arizona is trending upward, as is Houston, then who has become the front-runner for Caleb Williams next April? According to Tankathon, the Chicago Bears, armed with two Day 1 selections in 2024, sit in the driver’s seat. With all the hype surrounding Justin Fields in the offseason, this isn’t an outcome Bears fans were hoping to see.
The Broncos and Vikings round out the top three on Tankathon, with Denver in familiar territory. On the other hand, Minnesota has lost nearly as many games (3) in 2023 as they did the entirety of last season (4).
With aging signal-callers, these two franchises are firmly in the quarterback discussion at the 2024 NFL Draft. The good news? The amount of talent behind center is absurd at the collegiate level. It goes deeper than Williams, as upwards of eight different passers have popped up in mock drafts.
Because the season is still so young, I will use a mixture of the inverse Super Bowl odds and the current Tankathon draft order. That is a subjective way of predicting the order, but it provides more context than strictly using team records and betting odds.
With that disclaimer out of the way, the Chicago Bears… you are on the clock!
No. 1: Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams, QB, USC
If the Bears are selecting No. 1 overall, even if it ends up being with Carolina’s pick, the franchise will surely be ready to turn the page on Justin Fields. In his place comes what many are tabbing as a generational prospect at quarterback.
USC’s Caleb Williams isn’t quite as surefire as the media would lead you to believe, but his arm talent and creativity should make him the top pick off the board for a quarterback-needy squad. Williams is a plug-and-play option for Chicago in Year 1.
Russell Wilson Out, Drake Maye In For Broncos
No. 2: Denver Broncos — Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Will the Broncos actually select at No. 2 overall come next spring? If their play in 2023 is any indicator, such a high draft pick wouldn’t be a surprise. While there are bigger issues at play than Russell Wilson, it would be too difficult for Sean Payton to pass up on a signal-caller here.
Enter Drake Maye. A close second to Williams in most quarterback rankings, the UNC star flexes prototypical size and is arguably the best deep ball thrower in the class. The Wilson reign comes to a screeching halt as Maye could quickly remind Broncos fans of franchise legend John Elway.
No. 3: Chicago Bears (via CAR) — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The temptation to select Marvin Harrison Jr. proves too strong for the Chicago front office. After adding the top quarterback, the best wide receiver in college football follows Williams to the Windy City. Like his father, MHJ possesses teach tape route running and boasts a frame considerably larger. He is the best wide receiver prospect in years.
No. 4: Arizona Cardinals — Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
No quarterback? Are you serious? Yes, I am. Right now, the expectation — at least in my mind — is to build around Kyler Murray, not trade him. If so, head coach Jonathan Gannon will want a building block for his defense. Jared Verse is explosive off the snap and an ever-improving run defender. He has “top-five pick” written all over his tape.
No. 5: Las Vegas Raiders — Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas
While QB1 and QB2 are widely agreed upon in the mock draft community, a handful of prospects could be the third signal-caller off the board. Quinn Ewers still has work to do with consistency, but the flashes he has put on tape have NFL teams salivating.
Ewers boasts adequate arm talent, even if his overall arm strength is a notch below elite. More often than not, the Longhorn alum shows supreme ball placement and regularly gives his pass catchers a chance to create after the catch. His skillset fits well with Josh McDaniels — or whoever is the head coach in Vegas next season.
No. 6: Arizona Cardinals (via HOU) — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
After sticking with Murray and drafting Verse, the Cardinals use the second of their first-round picks on a weapon for the offense. Brock Bowers is slightly undersized from a traditional sense, but that is about as far as the list of concerns goes.
Bowers fits the mold of a new-age tight end, capable of lining up in-line as a blocker or out wide as a pass catcher. He is deceptively agile after the catch and hits his top gear quickly in space. It won’t take long for Bowers to cement himself as the top option for Kyler Murray in the desert.
No. 7: Washington Commanders — J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Full disclosure: I have J.J. McCarthy much lower than this on my own Big Board. However, McCarthy has noticeably improved in Year 3 with Michigan and is gaining steam as a legitimate first-round prospect.
The Commanders are giving Sam Howell a shot to seize the role long-term, but coming off a four-interception performance, there is reasonable doubt about those chances. McCarthy is taller, possesses better footwork, and could be the “Justin Herbert” of the class.
Rome Odunze Takes His Talents To The Big Apple In Round 1 Of Latest NFL Mock Draft
No. 8: New York Giants — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Rome Odunze earned the WR2 ranking on our Summer Big Board, and nothing has changed. Odunze has 544 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns on the year and had an exciting punt return for six points this past weekend. What makes the Husky pass catcher special is his unparalleled body control, ball tracking downfield, and contested catch prowess. Brian Daboll needs a guy like that.
No. 9: New York Jets — Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
A top-five player in most NFL Draft classes, Olu Fashanu finds himself pushed down the board thanks to a quarterback run. The Jets waste little time turning in the card, as the 20-year-old Fashanu is ready to start from Day 1. Some would even argue he should be starting on Sundays already.
No. 10: Minnesota Vikings — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Like McCarthy, I am not as high on Michael Penix Jr. as others. But his level of play in 2023 is impossible to ignore. So far, the left-handed fireballer looks like a Heisman Trophy front-runner. Age and his long injury history will be common red flags throughout the process, but only one team has to buy in.
The Minnesota Vikings did all they could with Kirk Cousins in 2022. Now, as the team sits at 0-3, a top-ten pick awaits them in April. If nothing else, the prospect of Penix sending deep passes downfield to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison is exciting.
No. 11: Tennessee Titans — Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Titans are a roster depleted of top-end talent. A third straight year of selecting a quarterback could be on the table, but with such a run already occurring, Tennessee pivots to a potentially elite pass rusher in Dallas Turner. While he lacks the playing strength of others in the class, few can get into the backfield as consistently and creatively as Turner.
No. 12: Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Cam Ward, QB, Washington State
Cam Ward is the quarterback I would select if Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are unavailable. But this isn’t a “what would Hunter Haas do” mock draft. Instead, Ward becomes the SIXTH signal-caller taken in this NFL mock draft.
The Buccaneers have gotten impressive play out of Baker Mayfield thus far. But it would be ill-advised to pass on a higher-upside player, even if Mayfield sticks around as the placeholder for another season or two. Ward has the dual-threat and improvisation abilities to be a difference-maker at the next level.
No. 13: New England Patriots — Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
This is what happens when quarterbacks fly off the board early. The Patriots, as they so frequently do, get a phenomenal value at No. 13 in this mock draft. Joe Alt comes from the highly-heralded Notre Dame pipeline, flexing franchise offensive tackle size and skills. New England needs his polished technique; it doesn’t matter which side of the line he plays.
Colts Snag The Top Cornerback At No. 14 Overall In This Mock Draft
No. 14: Indianapolis Colts — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Another top player falls further than he should, allowing the Indianapolis Colts to scoop up a partner-in-crime for 2023 second-round pick JuJu Brents. Kool-Aid McKinstry excels in press coverage but has the traits to hold up in any scheme. Gus Bradley prefers zone coverage in Indy, but don’t be surprised if McKinstry and Brents allow the long-time coordinator to become more aggressive in his play calling.
No. 15: Los Angeles Chargers — Kalen King, CB, Penn State
Kalen King is the second-straight Penn State cornerback to fetch a Day 1 grade on my Big Board. King is as competitive as it gets, a trait necessary to hold up in the NFL vs. the elite of the elite at wide receiver. The Chargers are allowing 29 points per game and must clean up the defense.
No. 16: New Orleans Saints — Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Keon Coleman has risen up draft boards after a spectacular start to his Florida State career. The former Michigan State Spartan looks the part of an NFL WR1, including otherworldly athleticism and strength at the catch point. Value supersedes need at No. 16 in this mock draft.
No. 17: Pittsburgh Steelers — J.C. Latham, OL, Alabama
The Steelers have improved mightily, at least on paper, when it comes to the offensive line. Broderick Jones will be a mainstay on one side of the line, but I believe Pittsburgh should consider drafting a bookend to the unit. J.C. Latham profiles best as a right tackle, which allows Jones to stick at his more natural position — the blindside.
No. 18: Atlanta Falcons — Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
Grady Jarrett is still a premier player in the league, but Father Time stops for no man, Jarrett included. Jer’Zhan Newton is a selection that kills two birds with one stone — so to speak. Newton is a long-term replacement for the veteran defender but has the versatility to line up WITH Jarrett in the Falcons’ three-man front.
No. 19: Cincinnati Bengals — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Bengals fans know that bigger needs currently exist on the roster. But what happens when Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd hit free agency next offseason? I am a fan of Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas; don’t get it twisted. However, relying on two unproven players to be elevated to such a prominent role is shortsighted.
Instead, pairing Malik Nabers, a fellow LSU Tiger alum, with Ja’Marr Chase would unlock another level of play from quarterback Joe Burrow. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who says offensive line or even running back is a more pressing need, but at No. 19 in this mock draft, the fit is too good to ignore.
Don’t Sleep On Ja’Tavion Sanders
No. 20: Houston Texans (via CLE) — Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
Brock Bowers gets all the attention at tight end, but Ja’Tavion Sanders is an NFL player in his own right. In 2023, Sanders has become an even more lethal playmaker for the Longhorns. With a healthy 22.3 yards per reception average, the Texas star would give C.J. Stroud a go-to weapon in the passing game.
No. 21: Jacksonville Jaguars — Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan
The Jaguars are not as close to being Super Bowl contenders as some might say, but the roster is full of young talent, and Kris Jenkins would only add to that. Jacksonville has a nice collection of pass rushers to pair with an ascending offense, but Jenkins could serve as the final piece to the defensive line puzzle.
No. 22: Green Bay Packers — Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
The Packers simply cannot rely on their current slate of starters staying healthy for a 17-game campaign. To put Jordan Love in the best position to succeed, more stability is needed upfront. Kingsley Suamataia is a forgotten man in several mock drafts, but that will change as the 2024 NFL Draft approaches. He checks all the physical boxes; professional coaching will round out any technical deficiencies.
No. 23: Seattle Seahawks — Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
The Seahawks inked Geno Smith to a new contract last offseason, and I expect him to open the 2024 campaign as the team’s starter. But the presence of Smith will not stop general manager John Schneider from pouncing at the opportunity to select Shedeur Sanders.
It is uncertain if Sanders will even declare for the NFL, but in this mock draft, let’s assume he does. While still raw, the Colorado quarterback has shown enough flashes to roll the dice on in Round 1. His arm is strong enough, and what impresses me the most is his eye usage when scanning defenses. Seattle would be the ideal landing spot for Sanders to ease into QB1 duties.
No. 24: Los Angeles Rams — Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
The Rams have looked more like the Rams we are accustomed to seeing under Sean McVay. However, the defense is clearly lacking a premier player off the edge. Chop Robinson is a prospect with a red-hot motor that consistently sees him making plays as a pass rusher and run defender.
No. 25: Baltimore Ravens — Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
The Ravens desperately need help (and health) in the secondary. Cooper DeJean is listed as 6-foot-1, 207 pounds, and has an extensive track and field background. He is still raw in some areas, mainly footwork and as a tackler, but his five interceptions in 2022 highlight superb ball skills as a boundary defender.
Another Mock Draft, Another Day 1 Ohio State WR
No. 26: Dallas Cowboys — Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Emeka Egbuka has primarily played as a big slot at Ohio State but has the size and strength to stick out wide just as easily. Combining his route running with CeeDee Lamb’s big-play ability would give Dallas a balanced passing attack for the foreseeable future.
No. 27: Detroit Lions — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Lions have built up the defense admirably since Brad Homes took over general manager duties. One area that still needs a true building block is cornerback. No one on the roster possesses the upside that Nate Wiggins brings to the table. With Clemson, Wiggins has shown lockdown abilities in man coverage and flexes improving technique as a zone defender.
No. 28: Buffalo Bills — Leonard Taylor III, DT, Miami
Leonard Taylor III would make an already dominant front seven even more dominant. The Miami product is shockingly twitched-up at his size, allowing for positional versatility along the defensive line. Consistency is the main red flag at this point for Taylor. NFL teams want to see him be disruptive for an entire season rather than just in spurts. He is off to a great start in 2023.
No. 29: Philadelphia Eagles — Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Laiatu Latu is a talented pass rusher who excels at making his assignments look silly. From a pure talent standpoint, Latu is one of the twenty best players in the 2024 NFL Draft class. His previous injuries, including a medical retirement while attending Washington, will continue to cloud his projection.
If any team is willing to bet on upside and look past potential off-field concerns, it is the Philadelphia Eagles. Latu is a consummate professional and would go down as yet another steal for general manager Howie Roseman. Don’t be surprised if the UCLA star goes much higher than this in April, assuming his medicals are clean.
No. 30: Miami Dolphins — Kamren Kinchens, DB, Miami
The Dolphins return to the first round of the NFL Draft in 2024 after sitting out Day 1 at the past two events. More offensive line help would make sense, but local product Kamren Kinchens is the selection in this mock draft. Kinchens can play either safety spot in the NFL, although he profiles best in a role that allows him to utilize his elite ball skills. In this instance, Miami takes the best player available and will figure out the rest later.
No. 31: San Francisco 49ers — Graham Barton, OL, Duke
The Niners are a well-oiled machine with no sign of slowing up. To maintain their high level of play, the front office must address the offensive line, specifically on the interior. Graham Barton is a position-less lineman capable of lining up at tackle, guard, or even center. His track record of steady play allows San Fran to address a need while also swinging for a high-upside player.
The Chiefs End Our Mock Draft With A High-Upside Lineman
No. 32: Kansas City Chiefs — Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Amarius Mims suffered an injury that will require surgery and keep him on the shelf for the next month or so. Before the injury, Mims was trending toward being a middle-of-Day-1 draft pick. But, in this mock draft, it forced the Georgia star down the board.
But fear not. There are far worse outcomes than landing with the Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is the best in the business, but it will require better play from his offensive tackles to keep the injury bug away. Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith are serviceable, but you wouldn’t protect your prized investment with “decent at best” options, would you?
Mims has decade-long potential as a starter. He can clean up his footwork in passing-down sets and his balance as a run blocker, but that is stuff that can be taught. One thing you cannot teach is being 6-foot-7 and weighing 340 pounds. The Bulldog standout is a worthwhile flyer this late in the mock draft.
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