Pick your fighter: Sam Darnold, Trey Lance, or Brock Purdy? Kyle Shanahan and the Niners have a crucial decision to make as the 2023 NFL season approaches.
The Niners boast one of the most impressive rosters in the NFL. In fact, since Kyle Shanahan arrived in the Bay Area, San Francisco has appeared in three NFC Championship games, including one trip to the Super Bowl.
Although the depth chart is beaming with talent, Shanahan has largely succeeded in spite of the quarterback position — not because of it. Jimmy Garoppolo is the only starting quarterback to appear in 16 or more regular season games in Shanahan’s six-year reign. That only happened once in 2019, when the Niners nearly defeated the Chiefs for a Super Bowl title.
Last season, the team started three different signal-callers en route to a second straight NFC title game. Former No. 3 overall pick, Trey Lance, suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2 before Garoppolo took over and eventually went down with an injury himself later in the year.
Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, was thrust into the starting quarterback position on a championship-caliber roster. To the surprise of many, the Iowa State product held his own by winning every game he started in the regular season, including two playoff victories vs. the Seahawks and Cowboys.
The injury gods struck again for the Niners, as Purdy suffered a torn elbow ligament against the Eagles in the NFC Championship, effectively tanking the chances of San Francisco advancing further. The injury was so severe that Purdy’s timetable for a return remains clouded as of this writing.
The roster remains one of the strongest in the league, but the familiar concerns behind center persist as well. The quarterback position lost its insurance piece when Garoppolo netted a lucrative three-year deal from the Raiders, ending his six-year stint with the Niners.
In Garoppolo’s place, general manager John Lynch signed former top-three pick Sam Darnold in free agency. While his talent cannot be denied, Shanahan has his work cut out to coach away some of the bad habits Darnold has developed over the years.
On top of the uncertainty surrounding Purdy and Darnold, Trey Lance has five total starts under his belt since his college days in 2019. Like Darnold, Lance possesses an embarrassment of riches in terms of talent, but the word potential means nothing if the young signal-caller fails to stay healthy.
Niners Dilemma: Start Sam Darnold, Trey Lance, Or Brock Purdy?
Now that we know the options for Kyle Shanahan in 2023, which player presents the highest likelihood of staying healthy and getting the Niners over the hump in the NFC?
Sam Darnold
The Case For Starting Sam Darnold
One could argue that Sam Darnold never got a fair chance to develop in the NFL. The Jets were nothing short of a mess during his time, from the top of the organization to the bottom. The same could be said about the Panthers in 2021 and 2022, as Carolina fired head coach Matt Rhule midway through Darnold’s second season with the franchise.
The Niners are the polar opposite, as the front office has established itself as one of the best in sports — not just football. Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive mind, and if he can have Garoppolo performing at such a high level, Darnold can offer a more talented game manager at quarterback.
The Case Against Starting Sam Darnold
To put it mildly, Darnold has put very few positives on tape since entering the league. He is talented, to be sure, but the 26-year-old quarterback suffers from poor decision-making as he drops back. His career completion percentage is below 60 percent, and Darnold’s 55 interceptions in only 55 career starts are concerning, to say the least.
The Niners are built to win right now, so pushing the chips in on a journeyman like Darnold could blow up in their face. As a spot starter, the sixth-year veteran is serviceable. As *the* guy behind center? You are flirting with disaster.
Trey Lance
The Case For Starting Trey Lance
The Niners invested heavily in Trey Lance at the 2021 NFL Draft. The front office sent three first-round picks to move up the board and snag the North Dakota State signal-caller. This move speaks to the talent that Lance possesses, including superb athleticism as a runner and a powerful arm capable of hitting every level of the defense.
Lance is a ball of clay that Shanahan can still shape in his image. He is a souped-up version of Brock Purdy physically, giving San Francisco a player capable of leveling the playing field in the NFC. It is a risk, but the Niners showed their hand by trading so much for the unproven quarterback — the team should see it through.
The Case Against Starting Trey Lance
Lance is wildly inaccurate and has been his entire career. His inexperience with traditional dropbacks is glaringly obvious while watching. Furthermore, Lance hasn’t faced elite talent on defense often, even if he logged several practice reps against the vaunted Niners’ defense.
The roster doesn’t have time to work through the growing pains that Lance could suffer during his first “real” year as a starter since 2019. Shanahan shouldn’t completely abandon his vision with the 23-year-old, but he is not ready to be the guy on a Super Bowl roster yet.
Brock Purdy
The Case For Starting Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy has never lost a game as the starting quarterback when healthy. The former last overall pick was thrown into the fire late in the season after Garoppolo and Lance went down with injuries. In their stead, Purdy completed more than 68 percent of his passes and tossed 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions.
Purdy continued his impressive play when the postseason got underway. He accounted for four touchdowns in a blowout victory against a division rival, the Seattle Seahawks. The former Cyclone signal-caller hit some roadblocks the following week vs. Dallas but still had enough juice to secure a seven-point win, allowing his team to advance to the NFC Championship.
Purdy suffered a torn ligament after rattling off seven straight victories as the QB1 in San Francisco. The Eagles were a juggernaut in 2022, so perhaps it ultimately did not matter, but the untimely injury certainly didn’t help. If Purdy is healthy by Week 1, he should retain the starting gig, given his success last season.
The Case Against Starting Brock Purdy
Was Purdy’s breakout campaign merely a blip on the radar? It is a fair question to ask. After all, every NFL team passed on the 23-year-old multiple times at the 2022 NFL Draft. As successful as Purdy was in the win column last year, many of his counting stats were inflated by a stacked cast of weapons and the best play caller in the league.
I am a firm believer in Kyle Shanahan, but settling for a lesser talented player behind center could continue handcuffing the unit as a whole; much like the previous attempts with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Purdy is good enough to win games as a manager; he is not a guy that will ever compare to the elite of the elite at the position.
In Conclusion
Will Shanahan swing for the fences by starting Trey Lance? Can he revive a career that never quite got off the ground with Sam Darnold? Or should he stick with Brock Purdy because of last season’s success?
Darnold should be nothing more than an emergency spot starter at this point. If San Francisco suffers more injuries at the position, Darnold could reasonably step in and guide the ship in the regular season. However, he is not someone to trust if you have Super Bowl aspirations.
My gut says the Niners roll with Purdy, but I believe Lance should get the first crack at starting reps. He is a player the franchise invested heavily in and still could develop into a high-end starter in the NFL.
Too often over the years, the franchise has gotten in its own way in terms of bad injury luck and questionable quarterback decisions. Here’s hoping that whichever path the Niners take this offseason leads to a Lombardi Trophy.