2023 NFL Draft: Finding The Bijan Robinson Landing Spot

Positional value at the running back position has declined, but Bijan Robinson breaks the mold in the 2023 NFL Draft. Where will he land?

Over the last several years, we’ve talked at length about the declining value of running backs in the NFL. Most drafted do not reach a second contract. For those that do, teams find themselves in a cap crunch as big deals often lead to massive cap numbers when running backs reach their late twenties.

Look at Ezekiel Elliot, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara, who haven’t been the kindest to their respective team’s salary cap. Saquon Barkley, a phenomenal talent, still awaits a long-term deal. Aaron Jones is a potential cut candidate this offseason. The conversation will have to start soon between the Colts and Jonathan Taylor. The Panthers ended up trading away Christian McCaffrey.

It’s just often easier to replenish often through the draft, and the 2023 NFL Draft class presents an elevated number of potential lead backs, with a few excellent committee/satellite backs mixed in as well. However, one name stands alone and is the reason this conversation is coming up. That is, of course, Longhorns workhorse Bijan Robinson.

A tough, quick, and creative running back, Robinson took college football by storm even as a freshman. Draft fans have long-awaited for this, to see him enter the NFL. Robinson’s incredible footwork to keep options open, his answers versus contact and creative footwork in space, his ability to break tackles, and his natural vision as a runner and hands as a receiver make him the complete player at the position.

Where Will Bijan Robinson Land In The 2023 NFL Draft?

Even still, it’s tough to figure out exactly where Bijan Robinson will go in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’s a top five (at worst) player in the class, but the positional value question will always be brought up. Over a dozen teams could easily make the move in round one, so let’s look at each and try to narrow our lens to find the landing spot.

Atlanta Falcons (Pick 8)

This pick is likely where conversations begin about Bijan Robinson. The Falcons have a creative and effective running game under head coach Arthur Smith, one that saw fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier reach 1,000 yards. Robinson elevates this team further, and gives them another queen on the chess board to move around. Robinson, Allgeier, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts creates a tantalizing skill position room for Desmond Ridder at quarterback.

But, will Smith and GM Terry Fontenot see Allgeier’s success and look for a more premium position? The defense needs help at every level. It’s within the realm of possibility, but corner or edge feel more likely.

Likelihood: 20-25 percent

Carolina Panthers (Pick 9)

After trading away McCaffrey, the Panthers did get production out of D’Onta Foreman and the committee as a whole. However, they won’t stick with this unit, no matter the direction they take. Bijan Robinson would be the new-age McCaffrey for the offense, there’s no doubt about it.

The issue with Carolina is that they have to find the solution at quarterback. Sam Darnold isn’t it. P.J. Walker isn’t it. Matt Corral isn’t tied to this new regime, so it’s extremely unlikely. If they want to move up to number one to get Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, they should do whatever it takes. If they like Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, swing. This takes precedence over running back.

Likelihood: Less than 5 percent

Philadelphia Eagles (Picks 10, 30 or 31)

The Super Bowl representative in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best rosters in the NFL right now. Armed with picks 10 and 30 or 31 in the 2023 NFL Draft, they can strengthen important positions for the future and/or get a luxury player. With Miles Sanders set to be a free agent, Robinson could join an incredible skill position nucleus to provide so many options for Jalen Hurts.

But, there are still some lingering questions. Lane Johnson is getting long in the tooth. James Bradberry is a free agent. We know Howie Roseman loves to fortify the trenches ahead of time. Those would indicate that 10 is unlikely, but don’t rule out the end of the first if it happens.

Likelihood: 10 percent at pick 10, 60-70 percent at pick 30/31

Houston Texans (Pick 12)

This would be a bit of a shocker, no doubt. The Houston Texans have two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, and want to build a strong nucleus on both sides of the ball. It’s probably quarterback at pick two, unless DeMeco Ryans likes Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. Even after that, it could be defense.

But, if it’s quarterback, maybe Ryans and company won’t force the issue at receiver, even if Brandin Cooks seeks a trade. Dameon Pierce is there, but Bijan Robinson is a serious upgrade and definitely the best available there. Still, QB/WR or QB/defense feels the most likely.

Likelihood: 10-15 percent

New England Patriots (Pick 14)

Bill Belichick isn’t afraid to keep drafting running backs. Yes, he often does it on day three of the draft (two last year), but Belichick did draft Sony Michel in the first back in 2018. Rhamondre Stevenson is there, but again, Robinson is a clear upgrade that Belichick could have supporting his quarterback for at least five seasons. Robinson is your Stevenson, your early down bruiser. He’s also your James White, running clean routes and operating well in space as a pass-catcher. Robinson can pass protect too.

Likelihood: 35-45 percent

Green Bay Packers (Pick 15)

I can feel teeth clenching and fists forming while Packers fans find this. They like things a certain way. But, let’s look at where we’re at. Aaron Rodgers could be traded or could retire. Aaron Jones carries a massive cap number in 2023. If Jordan Love starts in 2023, surrounding him with the best possible chance makes sense. General manager Brian Gutekunst has taken what the Packers normally do and tossed in the trash and lit it on fire.

Bijan Robinson is the lead back of dreams in a Matt LaFleur well-designed run game. Plus, his receiving ability gives the 21 personnel sets even more merit. Still though, safety, tight end, and the trenches will probably take precedent.

Likelihood: 15 percent

Detroit Lions (Pick 18)

Okay, here we go. The Detroit Lions are probably selecting a defensive player at pick six, whether it be an edge rusher or a corner. At pick 18, things become a bit more muddied. This regime probably won’t value tight end early, but they could go defense once again.

So why are they here? D’Andre Swift isn’t their favorite player right now. Jamaal Williams is a free agent. Brad Holmes got aggressive for a talented skill player in last year’s draft, so why can’t a player of the caliber of Bijan Robinson be the selection here? Robinson, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and potentially more? Sign me up. In reality, very up in the air.

Likelihood: 20-25 percent

Los Angeles Chargers (Pick 21)

The Los Angeles Chargers have needs at safety (Nasir Adderley is likely gone), tight end, and speed at receiver. Linebacker is in there too, but that’s not a Tom Telesco tendency. There’s edge, and then there’s running back.

Austin Ekeler is a free agent after 2023. Joshua Kelley is fine, and Isaiah Spiller isn’t a big commitment. Kellen Moore is in as the offensive coordinator, who thrived in the red zone and in general with two studs at running back. Robinson is going to be the best player available if he’s available here. Speed can be addressed later. This is a fabulous landing spot that changes the offense in Los Angeles.

Likelihood: A Coin Flip

Baltimore Ravens (Pick 22)

The Ravens have a lot more going on right now than deciding what’s going to happen at pick 22 in the 2023 NFL Draft. Lamar Jackson is priority number one. Once that’s decided, then we move to here. If he’s back, the Ravens have to look to complement Rashod Bateman. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jalin Hyatt, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison all make sense. Corner would make sense too.

But, J.K. Dobbins may not be wearing purple and black in 2024. We know Eric DeCosta is the king of getting value in the draft. Bijan Robinson would certainly be that, and while it isn’t a receiver, Robinson and Jackson is nuts.

Likelihood: 30-35 percent

Dallas Cowboys (Pick 26)

There are plenty of questions surrounding the Dallas Cowboys this offseason. They have holes at defensive interior, linebacker, and corner. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard could both be gone. Getting a Robin to CeeDee Lamb’s Batman makes sense too.

However, Jerry Jones isn’t afraid of the splash move, let alone one that even makes sense. Robinson is the perfect heir apparent to be a stud on this offense and wear the star on his helmet.

Update: There’s a report out that Pollard could get the franchise tag. Cool, but I raise you Jerry Jones.

Likelihood: 50-60 percent (probably too low with Jerry Jones involved)

Buffalo Bills (Pick 27)

This is maybe where this writer diverges from the pack. Bijan Robinson to the Bills is a very popular landing spot. They were in on McCaffrey, traded for Nyheim Hines, and Devin Singletary is a free agent.

However, investing in Robinson in round one a year after James Cook in the second round? That seems a bit much, especially when the team needs help at safety (Jordan Poyer likely gone) and on both sides of the trenches. They need a ringer other than Von Miller, and the offensive line is average at best. Robinson will be tempting, potentially enough to sway management,

Likelihood: 25 percent

Kansas City Chiefs (Pick 30 Or 31)

The Chiefs took Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round three years ago. They did draft Isiah Pacheco, which is cool. Jerick McKinnon is a pass catching machine. Bijan Robinson can do what all three of these guys can and more. He’s a true solution to the two-high and drop coverage the Chiefs are facing, a workhorse with the creation skills to churn out explosive runs. Andy Reid and company wouldn’t hesitate.

Likelihood: Yes

Conclusion

There are so many variables with the teams above, especially with free agency to come, so it’s hard to completely pinpoint. But let’s throw out a prediction on where Bijan Robinson ultimately ends up in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Robinson ends up with one of these five: Falcons, Patriots, Chargers, Cowboys, Chiefs.