Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina: 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report
Josh Downs is a fun receiver who could make some highlight plays in the league. Will Downs be able to keep himself in the first round? Or will the fact that he is a slot receiver, who can’t block well, keep him out of the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?
Name: Josh Downs
Position: WR
School: North Carolina
Height: 5-foot-10
Weight: 174 pounds
Background
Josh Downs entered the 2023 NFL Draft after catching 94 passes this season and tallying 1,029 yards through the air. Additionally, Downs found the end zone 11 times on the year. This comes after producing similar stats in 2021. The season before he caught 101 passes for 1,335 yards. A lot of what makes Downs special is his ability to run short-yardage plays and turn them into big gains.
I am really excited to watch Downs play in the NFL because of his excellent short-area route running. Hopefully the UNC superstar lands with a play caller that knows how to use him properly.
Strengths:
-Pass-Catching
-Short-Intermediate Route Running
-Elite YAC Potential
The first thing I love about Josh Downs is his ability to catch balls with ease. In all fairness, he did have Drake Maye and Sam Howell throwing him the ball but still, Downs only had a two percent drop in college. That is very impressive. Yes, the routes he was running were not exactly challenging but still, he will be able to turn low-risk routes into high-reward plays, like a wide receiver screen for example.
Additionally, Downs was very good at running other short routes, such as slants, at a very amazing level. Finally, Downs has a lot of YAC potential because of his speed. While he doesn’t have a big enough body to consistently run through tackles, he is great at finding room in open space and taking it for a chunk of yards after the catch.
While he doesn’t have the size of Deebo Samuel — an unfair comparison either way — a lot of routes that Downs will excel at (to a much lesser degree) are similar to the Niners’ All-Pro receiver.
Weaknesses:
-Size
-Route Tree Diversity
-Blocking
The main thing that I have against Downs is the fact that he has a small body. A lot of struggles with come from the fact that the prospect has a slimmer frame than other wide receivers in the 2023 NFL Draft. It will be hard for him to catch the deep ball and go against bigger corners, especially if they can keep up with his speed and press him at the line.
Right now, it will be very difficult for Downs to succeed outside of the slot. Many scouts say that Downs is a below-average run blocker. Much of that will be hard to overcome due to the fact that he is, as stated before, small. This is especially worrying because he will be playing the slot to start off his career, which means it is that much more important he gets his block assignment handled.
2023 NFL Draft Projection: Late 1st/Early 2nd
To think about where Downs will be taken, we must establish one key but obvious fact. Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston will likely be taken before Downs (or should be in my opinion as of this writing). With the amount of talent in the 2023 NFL Draft, that takes us to pick No. 20 before we get into the territory where Downs could be drafted.
My first thought when it comes to where Downs gets drafted is to the New York Giants. The Giants at No. 26 overall would make a lot of sense. I would say the Ravens could take him at No. 23 but, as I highlighted in my Jahmyr Gibbs piece, I think they go running back at that pick.
The Giants could find themselves deciding between Josh Downs, Zay Flowers, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba for their first-round pick. If Downs doesn’t go earlier in the round, I have noticed people connecting him to Buffalo. I think he would flourish in their system, plus Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie’s contracts are up after the 2023 season, so that would be a good fit.
If he falls I am really intrigued by the Texans with the No. 34 overall pick at the top of round two. If you enter the 2023 NFL season with some combination of Bryce Young/C.J Stroud/Peter Skoronski/Paris Johnson Jr./Josh Downs, the franchise will be much better off for it. This would be a really fun rookie team to watch next season.