New York Jets: What Scouts Can Learn from Zach Wilson; Future NFL Draft Implications

2021 NFL Draft Review: Poor performance from Zach Wilson has led to his benching and, possibly, the end of his time with the New York Jets.

When the New York Jets selected Zach Wilson No. 2 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, it was supposed to mark the end of the franchise’s woes. A team that had been plagued by poor quarterback play got another chance at selecting a highly-touted prospect at the quarterback position, this time with more promise than ever.

However, as is often the case in the NFL, things haven’t gone as planned. Though drafted to be a franchise savior, Wilson has instead become a burden. He has shown very little improvement since the start of his rookie season, and his subpar play has been the root cause of the Jets’ offensive struggles.

With Wilson being benched yet again, and reports suggesting the Jets may move on from him in the offseason, it is time to revisit the pre-draft process that made Wilson a top-two pick — and what teams can learn from this going forward.

The Breakout 

Entering 2020, Zach Wilson wasn’t on the NFL’s radar. After putting up modest numbers in his first two seasons at BYU, it seemed unlikely he would even be drafted in 2021. But Wilson had other plans. He threw for 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 73.5 completion percentage, leading the Cougars to an 11-1 record.

Wilson’s breakout season did not go unnoticed. His elite production and dazzling film caught the eye of pro scouts. He catapulted up NFL Draft boards and was a consensus first-round prospect. The hype did not stop there. Wilson continued ascending draft boards throughout the pre-draft process, and after his pro day, he was penciled in as the second overall pick.

By the time the 2021 NFL Draft rolled around in the spring, there was hardly a discussion surrounding the Jets’ pick. It had become a given that Zach Wilson would be taken second overall, with few dissenters.

The Danger of One-Year Wonders

Wilson’s meteoric rise was initially a feel-good story about how a young kid that had little pro consideration made it big. But it also showed how easily teams could be swayed. Wilson had looked like a talented, yet highly-flawed prospect for two-thirds of his collegiate career. But since the one-third that consisted of high-level play came right before the NFL Draft, teams mostly disregarded his 2018 and 2019 performances.

Players such as Joe Burrow have shown that drafting a player off one great season can workout, but that doesn’t mean it is a risk-free game. Unlike Burrow, Zach Wilson didn’t shred vicious SEC defenses; he instead dominated a schedule that mostly comprised of group of five opponents. Wilson’s 2020 season turned heads, and rightfully so, but allowing four months of football played during a global pandemic against lower-level opponents to vault a player into the No. 2 overall spot may have been premature.

The Arm Talent Myth

One of the more challenging aspects of scouting is making the distinction between fun players and good players. Good players can often be fun, but these labels don’t always coincide. While the flash and flair of Wilson’s 2020 tape won many fans and scouts over, it may have also caused many of his strengths to be exaggerated and many of his weaknesses to go overlooked.

The main area of Wilson’s game that caused him to go second overall was his arm talent. Many credible scouts compared his arm and improvisational ability to that of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. However, Wilson’s skeptics were quick to point out that while Wilson’s play style at BYU was somewhat similar, the overall physical traits, such as arm strength, were not.

It has become increasingly evident that Wilson’s arm, by NFL standards, is good, not great. This shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker, as quarterbacks have found plenty of success with less-than-spectacular arm strength. But for a player like Wilson, who was mainly drafted for his arm, it completely changes the narrative.

Anyone can be a hindsight scout. Human error always has been and will continue to be a part of the NFL Draft process. With that said, criticizing the Wilson pick is hardly revisionist history. There were plenty of factors that made him a far riskier pick than other quarterbacks on the board, like Justin Fields and Mac Jones. As much as Jets fans would like to erase this pick from their memories, it should serve as a paradigm for how biases can negatively impact judgment.