NFL Draft Notebook: Las Vegas Raiders will surprise this year

The last division preview of the year takes a look at one of the toughest divisions in the NFL the AFC West. This division is led by four Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr. It is also a very balanced division as any of the teams in this conference has a good chance to win the division or finish dead last. In addition to taking a look at the AFC West this week’s NFL Draft Notebook also highlights the following:

• Rookies who continue to impress in training camp
• One player to watch for each AFC West
• A few tight ends to watch in the 2023 NFL Draft
• And much more

AFC West Preview

(Please note teams are in the order I predict them to finish in)

Las Vegas Raiders

One team that is going to surprise people this year is the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are led by Derek Carr who should be able to put up impressive numbers under new head coach Josh McDaniels. One of the reasons this could be one of Carr’s best seasons of his career is the addition of Davante Adams who along with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller should make the Raiders’ passing game one of the most dangerous in the AFC. One area of concern for the offense though is its offensive line and if this unit doesn’t improve it could take the Raiders from a Super Bowl contender to one that struggles to just make the playoffs.

The Raiders defense is led by defensive end Maxx Crosby who led the NFL with 82 quarterback pressures last season according to Next Gen Stats. Chandler Jones who had 10.5 sacks last season joins Crosby on the defensive line to give the Raiders two dominant pass rushers. Unfortunately, the linebacker and cornerback spots are not nearly as strong and in order to hold up on pass defense, they will need to pressure the quarterback. One promising player in the secondary is 2021 second-round pick Tre’von Moehrig.

Las Vegas is a team who has some premier players but also has several positions that are big weaknesses. If the Raiders can cover up these areas with their scheme they should be a serious contender for the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs

While the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill this offseason they will be fine as long as Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback. Mahomes will still have several weapons in the passing game as well with Travis Kelce at tight end and newly signed JuJu Smith-Schuster at wide receiver. Kansas City will also likely count more on their running game this year since they have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.

Unfortunately, for Kansas City, they also saw several departures on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary where they lost three starters. The strength of this unit will likely be the linebacker group which includes several promising young players in Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr. The Chiefs also added several young players in this year’s draft including cornerback Trent McDuffie, defensive end George Karlaftis, and safety Bryan Cook. While it may take some time for these players to develop it give the team a good start on rebuilding their defense.

This year could be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Chiefs since they lost so much on both sides of the ball. Even if it is a year Kansas City plays several young players they should be able to put up points on offense which should be enough to earn them another playoff spot.

Los Angeles Chargers

To say the AFC West is a division loaded at the quarterback position is an understatement. The Chargers are led by Justin Herbert who threw for 5,014 yards with 38 touchdowns but also tossed the sixth most interceptions in the NFL with 15 picks. The Chargers have two 1,000-yard receivers returning in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, and both of these players should put up big numbers again this year. The running game is led by Austin Ekeler who may have been overused last season, which is why the team drafted Isaiah Spiller in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Another one of their draft picks Zion Johnson will look to shore up the right side of the line which was a big concern last year.

Last year the Chargers’ defense saw their share of struggles giving up 360 yards per game including 139 yards on the ground which ranked 30th in the NFL. One way the Chargers tried to upgrade their defense was by trading for linebacker Khalil Mack who has had 76.5 career sacks including six last year in just seven games. The team also spent four draft picks on the defensive side of the ball including selecting three defensive backs. These new additions will join some established veterans like Joey Bosa and Derwin James Jr to help upgrade their defense.

While the Chargers have an exciting passing game they may be too one-dimensional to make the playoffs this year. In order for Los Angeles to become a contender, they are going to need to focus more on the running game and see much-improved play from their defense.

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos finally found a quarterback they can count on when they traded for Russell Wilson. One player who should see a boost in his production due to the addition of Wilson is wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. Two losses the team did suffer in the passing game are that of Noah Fant who was traded to the Seattle Seahawks and wide receiver Tim Patrick who tore his ACL which will cost him the season. When it comes to the running game the team is led by two backs who rushed for over 900 yards last season in Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams. If the Broncos’ offensive line can hold up, Denver should have one of the more balanced offenses in the AFC West.

Last season, Denver only allowed 18.9 points per game which ranked third in the NFL but had trouble creating turnovers and getting to the quarterback. The Broncos tried to upgrade their pass rush with the addition of Randy Gregory who is an explosive pass rusher but has trouble staying on the field. The team’s other outside linebacker Bradley Chubb also has battled injuries and for the first time in his career did not record a sack last year. The secondary is led by Justin Simmons who had five picks last year and Pat Surtain II who picked off four passes. However, the team only saw one other defensive back pick off a ball last year which will need to change this year.

Look for Denver to be much improved on offense this year which should allow them to compete for a wild card spot this year. However, to finish higher than fourth in the AFC West they will need to see improved play from their offensive and a defense that has a nose for the ball.

Rookie Stock Market

Stock Up
Jeff Gunter, DE, Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals might have found a steal in seventh-round pick Jeff Gunter. In the preseason opener against the Cardinals he came up with a big sack on Arizona Tracy McSorley, and also deflected one pass along with pressuring the quarterback on two other occasions. The Bengals are going to need a big year from Gunter after losing 2021 third-round pick Joseph Ossai to a season-ending injury

Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
In our AFC North preview, we noted that Isaiah Likely is a rookie to keep an eye on and he is proving why already this year. After having a strong training camp Likely also shined in the first preseason game of the year. In his game against the Titans, he was targeted four times and caught every pass thrown his way for 22 yards. It would be a surprise if Likely didn’t have a big impact this season for Baltimore.

Danny Gray, WR, San Francisco 49ers
One of the biggest plays of last weekend was 49ers quarterback Trey Lance hitting rookie wide receiver Danny Gray for a 76-yard touchdown. Gray had a strong preseason game overall vs the Packers as well already seeing time with the first unit and finishing the night with 99 receiving yards. Gray should be able to use his 4.33 speed to give the 49ers a consistent deep threat this year.

Jack Sanborn, MLB, Chicago Bears
An undrafted free agent who made a name for himself this weekend was Chicago Bears’ middle linebacker, Jack Sanborn. Sanborn showed a nose for the ball picking off one pass and recovering one fumble. He also was able to account for seven tackles on the day including two on special teams.

Stock Down

Matt Corral, QB, Carolina Panthers
To say the least Carolina quarterback Matt Corral did not have the type of game he was hoping to against the Washington Commanders. He completed just one of nine passes for 11 yards. This poor performance gave him a quarterback rating of 39.6 and raises plenty of questions about his NFL potential. Luckily for the Carolina Panthers, he will not be counted on much this year since he is the team’s third-string quarterback behind Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.

Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
Going into the 2022 NFL Draft Treylon Burks was rated as the most overrated wide receiver in the draft by this writer, and so far he is showing why he earned this label. He has battled conditioning and consistency issues along with having some trouble picking up the offense. In the team’s preseason opener against the Baltimore Ravens, he was targeted only once and did not record a single reception. He also played into the fourth quarter which doesn’t happen often with a player who the team is counting on to make a big impact at the start of the season.

Pierre Strong, RB, New England Patriots 

The New England Patriots offense has had its share of struggles this year and one player who has not lived up to expectations is running back Pierre Strong. Strong started off training camp battling injuries and has not looked like the back they expected when they took him in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. In his preseason opener, he didn’t see much time early in the game and finished the night with only 25 yards on six carries.

Jaylen Wydermyer, TE, Buffalo Bills
It is hard to believe at this time last year Jalen Wydermyer was viewed as the top tight end in the 2022 NFL Draft. Since that time though he has ran a horrible time of 5.03 in the 40-yard dash, gone undrafted, and now been cut by the Buffalo Bills. This just goes to show how far a highly rated prospect can fall with an average season and poor test numbers.

AFC West Rookies to Watch

Denver Broncos
Coming out of Oklahoma Nik Bonitto was billed as a top pass rusher and so far he has lived up to that reputation with the Denver Broncos. Bonitto has looked explosive off the edge and it would be a surprise if he was not featured in at least passing situations. In order to win a starting job, he is going to have to prove he is capable of holding up vs. the run.

Kansas City Cheifs
Kansas City loves wide receivers who can make plays after the catch and one player they drafted who is capable is Skyy Moore. Last season, Moore broke 26 tackles after the catch which led the nation according to Pro Football Focus. With the loss of Tyreek Hill look for him to get plenty of playing time this year and to be one of the more productive rookies in the AFC West.

Las Vegas Raiders
Going into the 2022 NFL Draft Las Vegas running back Zamir White was named the most underrated running back in the draft by this writer. He has shown why he has earned this label already in camp and especially in the preseason opener vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. If he can prove he is a reliable receiver out of the backfield look for him to get plenty of touches this year.

Los Angeles Chargers
Not often do you find a starter in the seventh round of the draft but that may be the case with Chargers fullback Zander Horvath. Horvath who played running back at Purdue has been getting plenty of reps with the Chargers’ first unit and he is pushing Gabe Nabers for the starting job. One big positive with Horvath is his versatility as he is a threat to run the ball, has the soft hands to catch the ball out of the backfield, and the physicality to be a good blocker.

NFL Draft Scouting Notes

— While we didn’t see any tight ends go in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft look for that to change next year. The tight end who will likely go in the first round is Michael Mayer of Notre Dame. Mayer is a complete tight end who can help out an offense as both a blocker and receiver. As a blocker, he shows good tenacity and overall strength to help improve a team’s running game as an in-line blocker. When looking at his receiver skills he shows strong hands which allow him to snag the ball out of the air, and the strength to break tackles after the catch. Overall, it would be a surprise if Mayer doesn’t develop into an All-Pro tight end.

— Last week the first coaches poll came out and three things stood out as surprises in the first poll of the year. The first one is Utah ranked eight, which seems too high especially when you consider they have two tough out of conference games in Florida and San Diego State. The second surprise was Texas came in at number 18. This is giving a lot of respect to a team who finished 5-7 last year. The last surprise is that Iowa was not ranked. While the Hawkeyes seem to always struggle on offense not many teams play defense as well as they do.

— One of the more intriguing tight ends in the 2023 NFL Draft is Jahleel Billingsley of Texas. On one hand, you have an outstanding athlete whose combination of speed, and overall agility make him a nightmare to cover. However, on the other hand, you have a player whose head coach has publicly criticized his work ethic. You also have a player who lacks the size to be an in-line tight end coming in at only 219 pounds. The fact he has so many strong positives and negatives will likely lead to NFL teams having him ranked all over the board from a possible day two selection to someone not even on some draft boards. If Billingsley is to hear his name called early next April he will need to prove he is a hard worker, continue to be a threat in the passing game, and hold up as a run blocker.

— Bruce Feldman came out with his annual Freak List last week. His top-rated athletic freak this year is Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith. Some of the most impressive testing numbers Smith has put up include bench pressing 325 pounds 22 times. running the short shuttle in 4.41 seconds and the 3-cone drill in 6.95 seconds. When looking at his film it is easy to see these strength numbers translate to the football field. His strength shows up against the run where he is able to knock back the offensive guard consistently. His speed shows up as well with his quick burst off the ball.

— Iowa has a long line of tight ends who have done well in the NFL including Dallas Clark, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant, and the next Hawkeye tight end who should make an impact is Sam LaPorta. LaPorta is your classic in-line tight end who gives great effort as a blocker and is one of the best receiving tight ends in the Big Ten. This is evident by his strong year last season where he led all Big Ten tight ends in receptions (53), yards (670), yards after catch (299), yards after contact (206) and catches of 15+ yards (18) according to Pro Football Focus. What is even more impressive is these stats likely would have been significantly better if Iowa saw better play from its quarterbacks last year.

— Wake Forest suffered a big loss when it was announced quarterback Sam Hartman will miss extended time with a medical condition. The school didn’t announce the specific condition he had but it will likely cost him at least a few games this year. When looking at how Hartman will transition to the NFL he currently carries a priority-free agent grade. He carries this grade because he needs to improve his accuracy, but is also a gutsy player who can hurt teams with both his feet and arm.

— A team who will likely be in the tight end market next offseason is the Houston Texans. The team does not have a tight end on their roster who accounted for at least 200 receiving yards last season and does not have any promising prospects on their roster. While it is hard to see them taking a tight end in the top ten where they will likely be drafting they will likely look at this position on the second day of the NFL Draft. A few names for Houston Texans fans to watch this year include Tucker Kraft of South Dakota State and Erick All of Michigan.

Quote of the Week

“This guy just plays hard, he loves football. You saw how he finishes runs. He’s a physical player, he’s a tough guy. He adds that element to our team and he’s unselfish. Whatever role we’ve asked him to compete in, he just gets in there whether it’s on the punt team, the kick coverage team, offensively, blitz pickup – he’s trying to get better every day. Loves football. I thought he got off to a good start the other night.”

-Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels on running back Zamir White