Who will be the week one starting quarterback for every NFL team in 2022?
This offseason is sure to shake the NFL world when it comes to the quarterback room. The 2022 NFL Draft doesn’t have a sure-fire quarterback in this class, and that couldn’t have come at a worse time around the league, as multiple teams are rumored to be in the market for a new player under center.
The offseason isn’t even officially underway for all 32 teams yet and there’s already been moves that have changed the way this offseason will be viewed. Ben Roethlisberger officially announced his retirement, as expected, but the is far from the only quarterback hanging up his cleats this offseason.
One of the greatest players of all-time, in any sport, is done. Tom Brady ended an insanely successful career, leaving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers in search of new eras. And that’s just two teams.
That doesn’t include the drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. That doesn’t eliminate the chance that Russell Wilson could be on the move from Seattle. There’s still the Deshaun Watson situation in Houston. Oh, and what does San Francisco do now given the success of the team with Jimmy Garoppolo this season?
Predicting the week one starter for every NFL team in 2022
This is just scratching the surface of everything that could come about this offseason. Coaching changes will shift perspective. The 2022 NFL Draft process will soon change things with the NFL Combine and Pro Days. However, as it currently stands what could week one of the 2022 NFL season look like at the quarterback position?
We still have many months to guess at what could be and new information throughout the offseason will make these predictions ever-changing. However, with the Super Bowl stage set there are now 30 teams with their eyes set on next season. What’s the plans for quarterbacks around the league?
Note: Order of teams will be alphabetical.
Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
Going alphabetically, we start with a no-brainer. The Kyler Murray-Kliff Kingsbury pairing in Arizona is working, and while they didn’t quite meet their expectations in 2021, nothing should really change heading into 2022.
Murray and the Cardinals have steadily improved with each of his seasons. After going 5-10-1 during his rookie season, Murray led the Cardinals to an 8-8 standing in 2020 before being 9-5 in the games Murray started this past season.
The catch here is that the window is closing for Murray’s cheap contract. Assuming the Cardinals pick up his fifth-year option (they would be dumb not to), Murray has two years left on his rookie deal. Given what he’s been able to do, he will demand a hefty extension.
If Arizona is going to take advantage of those rookie contract years, time is running out. They have the offensive weapons in place with DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore and many others. They’ve even been able to invest in defensive help with J.J. Watt and others. It’s just hard to have success when your division produces both teams that end up in the NFC Championship. Regardless, Murray is the future of this franchise and will be locked in for the foreseeable future.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan
This is where things could start getting interesting. Rumors have been swirling for over a year now about when the Atlanta Falcons might be looking to move on from Matt Ryan. Ryan, who will be 37-years old at the start of next season, will be entering his 15th season in 2022.
The downside with Ryan is that moving him before June 1st will result in over $40 million of dead cap for Atlanta. Even making a move after that date would still result in almost $25 million in dead cap, making it seem like Ryan is here to stay in Atlanta for another year.
With that being said, the Falcons could start to explore options for the future. Next year at this time, Ryan’s cap hit will be much lower at $15 million, so Atlanta could start the process now.
With the lackluster quarterback class, the Falcons could opt to take a player like Kenny Pickett and sit him for a year behind Ryan. They could also wait until the later rounds and try to take a high-upside project like Bailey Zappe, a quarterback who might need more time to adapt to the NFL game.
The fact of the matter for Atlanta is that Matt Ryan’s time with the Falcons could be coming to a close in the relatively near future. They could go the route of the Steelers and figure it out when that day comes or they could do what the Packers did and draft a quarterback who needs time, but has the option to sit behind a strong veteran for a year or two.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
We’re right back to quarterbacks who don’t have to worry about losing their job anytime soon. Lamar Jackson has proven time and time again to be a nightmare for opposing defenses and even though he was injured for a bit of the 2021 season, he should without a doubt be the week one starter in Baltimore next season.
The good news for the Ravens is that is seems like they have found their backup as well. Tyler Huntley stepped up when Jackson went down and was able to run the offense without missing much a beat. Having a solid backup in the NFL is almost as important as some starters at other positions. Huntley’s emergence relieved the pressure of securing that role in Baltimore.
The big thing for the Ravens is something that will become a theme as the next wave of quarterbacks establish their NFL careers. Entering his fifth season, Jackson is in the midst of his final “cheap year.” After this the Ravens will have to pay up and that will tighten the purse strings on the salary cap. While Baltimore has been preparing for this, that will make it harder to bring in free agents to fill roles like they have in the past, especially on the defensive side of the ball with a new defensive coordinator in 2022.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Sticking with the 2018 NFL Draft class, we come to Josh Allen who is arguably the best of the bunch to this point in their careers. Allen has started every game since the start of the 2019 season and has gone 34-15 over that span after being 5-6 during his rookie campaign. The consistency and success of Allen has Buffalo looking up and his spot well secured for the future.
The biggest difference between Allen and the other sure-fire, young quarterbacks we’ve mentioned is the contract. Allen is already signed on well beyond the 2022 season with the Buffalo Bills.
Allen inked a six-year extension with the Bills that will pay him over $258 million and keep him in Buffalo through the 2028 season. There’s a potential out between the 2025 and 2026 seasons, but if Allen keeps playing the way he is that clause won’t be needed.
Now, Allen and Buffalo can fully put their attention on retooling their current roster to make yet another run towards a Super Bowl appearance. Allen’s contract is done and the team can plan within those parameters. That could provide Buffalo an advantage over teams like Baltimore who are still negotiating to sign their quarterback to a long-term deal.
Carolina Panthers: Sam Darnold
This will be a make-or-break season for a lot of people within the Carolina Panthers organization. Matt Rhule will need to prove he is the coach to turn this team around and Sam Darnold will need to prove he is still the best option to quarterback this franchise.
Another member of the 2018 NFL Draft class, Darnold has one more year to prove that he can be a successful quarterback at the NFL level. The New York Jets took him third overall and cut ties just three seasons into his NFL career. He was only able to start 11 games during the 2021 season, so it’s hard to tell if he can do it in Carolina just yet.
On top of that, the Panthers will have a new offensive coordinator this upcoming season. This move will result in Darnold’s fourth offensive coordinator in five NFL seasons. It’s hard to find success under those circumstances. The other knock against Darnold is his ability to stay healthy. He’s yet to play more than 13 games in a season.
Darnold will get one more shot, but it will be a short leash. If it doesn’t work out, Carolina can do a clean cut and wipe the slate clean going into the 2023 season. With that being said, they could be a candidate to take a mid-round quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft to add some competition.
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields
Justin Fields will be the quarterback of the Chicago Bears during the 2022 season. Beyond that there are few things set in stone for the Chicago offense. Like many other young quarterbacks around the league, Fields will have to learn a new system ahead of the upcoming season.
Matt Nagy’s exit from Chicago was long awaited and the hiring of Matt Eberflus, a defensive-minded coach, to run the team will put a huge emphasis on the offensive coordinator hire that the Bears will make.
There’s two other big things to consider with Fields going into next season. First off, there will be a little bit less pressure on him. Andy Dalton is set to become a free agent, so the hovering quarterback controversy shouldn’t be nearly as present, if at all, next season.
The other thing will be the offensive line in Chicago. The Bears need to make an upgrade there after allowing the most sacks in the NFL this past season. Fields is a mobile quarterback which should help a bit, but he can’t be running for his life every play. That’s where Chicago’s focus needs to be this offseason, protecting Fields and giving him the time to grow as the quarterback of the future.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
Let’s face it, the Cincinnati Bengals won’t have to worry about their quarterback for a very, very long time. Not only has Joe Burrow proven himself to be the best option for the Bengals, but one of the best options in the NFL in just his second season at the game’s highest level.
In just his second season, and coming off an ACL injury, Burrow has been able to lead the Bengals to at least a Super Bowl appearance with the story not yet finished. After going 2-7-1 as a rookie over 10 starts, Burrow burst back onto the scene in 2021, and with his favorite college target in Ja’Marr Chase. The duo of Burrow and Chase is a promising one and could end up being one of the best duos in Cincinnati sports history if this success continues.
The best part about Burrow is his rookie contract. Despite being as great as he has been already, the Bengals will have a huge discount for the next three years before he’s due an extension. That should give Cincinnati the freedom to continue adding more pieces around Burrow while keeping the pieces already established in town for the next few years at least.
Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield. Where do we begin? Since being the first overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft, Mayfield has put together an up-and-down career that could provide the framework for one of the best roller coasters at Cedar Point in Sandusky, Ohio – just over an hour drive west of Cleveland.
A large contingent of the Cleveland media want the Browns to move on. The organization known for their quarterback turnover isn’t satisfied yet. However, there isn’t an option out there this offseason that fits Cleveland’s situation better than Baker.
Mayfield has one more year left on his rookie deal, so Cleveland will get a discounted quarterback for the 2022 season. That gives Mayfield the opportunity to attempt to prove himself once more while the team gets one more season of cheap QB play before having to make a decision for the future.
It’s also worth noting that Mayfield played nearly the entire season with a significant shoulder injury, one that often sidelines players for weeks. Mayfield kept up with Patrick Mahomes in week one of the 2021 season before getting hurt in week two. Don’t be surprised to see him return to his 2020 form and solidify his role as the Browns’ quarterback of the future in 2022.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
If the value of Dak Prescott wasn’t known before this season to the Dallas Cowboys, it is now. Without Prescott in 2020, the Cowboys puttered to a 6-10 record, finishing third in the league’s worst division. The offense ranked 14th for yards and 17th for points. Then, Prescott returned and the whole story changed in Dallas.
With Prescott back in 2021, the Cowboys went 12-5 to win the division. The offense was electric, leading the NFL in yards and points. The end result isn’t what anyone in the organization wanted, but the product of the season was clearly better with Prescott.
That’s good because Dallas is certainly paying him enough moving forward for that difference in production. Prescott will enter year two of his four-year extension in 2022, making over $34 million. That number will bump up to $45 million in 2023, making this upcoming season very important for Dallas.
The cap hit that Prescott will provide will put pressure on the Cowboys to succeed in 2022 before they are strapped by the cap. This is the new world of having a solid quarterback, paying them when the time comes, but Dallas needs to win a playoff game soon and the more Prescott makes, the harder it will be to supply his supporting cast.
Denver Broncos: Aaron Rodgers
Here’s our first change, and it’s a big one. I didn’t think Aaron Rodgers would play the 2021 season in Green Bay and I have an even more difficult time believing that he will return in 2022. Green Bay has invested in the future and with so many pieces set to enter free agency this offseason, they can start a full rebuild.
As for the other side of the equation, the Denver Broncos have tried everything since Peyton Manning retired. The veteran route hasn’t worked. The rookie route hasn’t worked. The only thing left is to replicate the Manning move and go get Rodgers, a top tier quarterback looking to get one more ring.
The hiring of Nathaniel Hackett to be the next head coach in Denver seems to further this thought. Getting Rodgers’ offensive coordinator from Green Bay would lessen any learning curve for Rodgers, making the destination more appealing.
The most intriguing part of the entire Denver situation is the weapons. It’s similar to what Tom Brady got in Tampa Bay. The Broncos have a plethora of young talent at all the playmaking positions on the offensive side of the ball and have worked to secure those players for the long-term.
If Rodgers does in fact leave Green Bay and wants to keep playing, Denver is increasingly becoming the best fit. The price will be high for the Broncos, but it would be worth it.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
Keep in mind that we’re talking about the starting quarterback for week one of the NFL. Not necessarily week 17 or 18. Will Jared Goff begin the 2022 season as the Detroit Lions starter? Yes. Will he end the season as the starter? We’ll see.
The Lions hold two first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft and while they shouldn’t take a quarterback with the first selection, they could opt to do so with their second selection. There’s options like Sam Howell and Matt Corral that could be available and intriguing options for the Lions. If not them, then Carson Strong and Desmond Ridder could be fringe first round options.
It’ll come down to if the Lions want to try and build around Goff and see what he can do with a better situation or if they want to start creating a plan beyond Goff. Buying out Goff at the end of the 2022 season would result in $10 million dead cap, but he could also stick around on his deal through the 2024 campaign.
The best route for Detroit is to try and build around Goff for the time being. He put up his best completion percentage of his career in 2021 (67.2%), so there’s a chance he could work out in Detroit if they want to explore other positions this offseason.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
With the expectation that Aaron Rodgers moves on from Green Bay, it can be equally assumed that Jordan Love will takeover under center for the Packers. The 26th overall selection in 2020 NFL Draft, Love started his first game during the 2021 season, and it was a tough road matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
In that game, Love went 19-of-34 through the air and tossed a touchdown, but also had an interception and a fumble, which he recovered. Over the course of the season, Love appeared in six games. He logged a completion percentage of 58.1% while throwing two touchdowns and three interceptions. He also added 27 yards rushing.
The reality for Green Bay is that Love is far from Aaron Rodgers and we still don’t know what this team will look like around the quarterback in 2022. Davante Adams could be gone along with multiple other pieces on both sides of the ball. There will be a new offensive coordinator. What about Matt LaFleur? What does he do without an MVP quarterback?
If it is Love, expect a good amount of growing pains in 2022 for both Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers in general. It could be a very different season than what this organization has become used to seeing.
Houston Texans: Davis Mills
The Houston Texans are going to need a complete rebuild. From the ground up. You shouldn’t begin that process with a quarterback. They need weapons. They need protection. They need defense. Making any move to find a new quarterback that could cost assets right now isn’t the right call.
With that being said, Davis Mills has an opportunity in front of him to prove himself to more than just the Houston Texans, but the entire NFL. Mills appeared in 13 games, starting 11, and while it wasn’t the best performance, he can hold down the fort for a year while the Texans add more pieces around the position.
Obviously, the biggest question here is Deshaun Watson. Will Watson play in 2022? We’ll have to see how the off the field issues play out. Many thought he would in 2021 and he didn’t, so it’s hard to tell. If he does play, odds are in won’t be in Houston. They could try and trade him to gain assets for the rebuild, but it’s hard to say anything without Watson’s off the field issues solved.
With that being said, Houston needs to move on without Watson in their plan for the time being. If that means Mills or another quarterback, they need to start formulating a plan from square one.
Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz
The 2022 season will be a pivotal marker for both the Indianapolis Colts and Carson Wentz. Frank Reich will be entering his fifth season at the helm of the Colts and it’s been a bit of a roller coaster. He’s posted a winning season in three of the four seasons thus far, but the 9-8 finish in 2021 was a bit underwhelming.
As for Wentz under center, this could be his last big shot at proving himself at the NFL level. Wentz and Reich have had success with Wentz bring third in the MVP voting in 2017, but that success just hasn’t returned.
If things go south in 2022 for Wentz and the Colts it could spell a bit of a reset in Indianapolis, which include someone new running the show as general manager. From now moving forward into the 2022 season, Wentz can be let go with no dead cap against the Colts and that will stick for the rest of his contract. It will now become a year-to-year opportunity for Wentz.
Wentz looked better in 2021 than he has in previous seasons, so hopefully another offseason to settle in with the Colts will allow him to get back to his game and the Colts back to the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
There’s good and bad news regarding Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The good news is that the Jags, as of now, still have their quarterback of the future. A one season sample size isn’t enough to write that down in Sharpie, but the trajectory is still there for sustainability. The bad news is that his rookie season was mostly wasted.
I say mostly wasted because there was growth. Lawrence was able to learn the speed of the NFL and begin to make the adjustments to the next level. What was lost was any sort of progress within a system.
The Urban Meyer fiasco that went down in Jacksonville this season will set back the entire team to a point, specifically Lawrence. Developing franchise quarterbacks takes time and now Lawrence will need to learn a new system and gel with a new coaching staff for the second straight season.
This can be done, and has been done by quarterback after quarterback. However, for the Jaguars this is just prolonging their rebuild and making it a steeper climb to get back to being a competitive team.
Like I said, it isn’t going to completely derail Lawrence’s career. He can do it, but the time spent during his rookie season could have been more productive if it would have been with a staff that was staying for year two.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
There might not be an easier answer when taking about quarterbacks moving forward than Patrick Mahomes. What is there to really say? He’s arguably the best quarterback in the league. He’s signed on for a long time in Kansas City. He’s invested in the Kansas City community. This is a no-brainer, and will be for the foreseeable future.
The bigger question for Kansas City is the pieces surrounding Mahomes. Travis Kelce is signed through 2025, but Tyreek Hill is only signed on for the 2022 season as of now. Even this offseason the Chiefs are going to have to make free agent decisions on Mitchell Schwartz, Orlando Brown Jr., Andrew Wylie and Tyrann Mathieu.
Mahomes is the mainstay in Kansas City and Travis Kelce is right there with him. Making the tough decisions around them for the rest of the team is what will be challenging moving forward. That duo alone can keep them in games, but to remain a Super Bowl contender the Chiefs will need to be very savvy with their cap space.
In the meantime, Mahomes should continue to dominate and be among the best quarterbacks in the league. Like greats before him, he alone makes the Chiefs a dangerous team to play.
Las Vegas Raiders: Jimmy Garoppolo
This is probably one of the more “out-there” guesses on this list, but it is far from impossible. The 49ers have already voiced their interest in moving Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and the addition of Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas could throw an interesting wrinkle into the whole situation.
First, though, Derek Carr. Carr played well this past season and led the Raiders further than anyone would have thought after everything with Jon Gruden. However, McDaniels might want to bring in his guy. Carr should be a starter, but will McDaniels be content with him under center?
Josh McDaniels was part of the New England team that originally drafted Garoppolo. Garoppolo spent his first three seasons learning McDaniels’ offense and even went 2-0 over his two starts during the 2016 season.
Carr and McDaniels could work, but Garoppolo and McDaniels has a better shot. Garoppolo would be able to step right in knowing the offense and hit the ground running with McDaniels. The question would be the cost.
Both Carr and Garoppolo have one year left in their deals, so nothing would change there. The cap hit is a bit bigger for Garoppolo. It could just come down to what the trade value for Garoppolo is and what Carr would net the Raiders in return. If it’s close to even, Garoppolo might be the preferred option of the new regime in Vegas.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
Entering the 2020 NFL Draft Justin Herbert had a ton of question marks surrounding his game. There was cause for concern about his transition to the NFL and he didn’t even truly “win” the starting job, but had to step up when injury woes removed Tyrod Taylor from the competition. Now, with two years under his belt, Herbert has silenced most critics and is only getting started.
Herbert won the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 and with a new head coach in year two he continued to grow. (Good sign for Trevor Lawrence fans). The record wasn’t quite where fans will want it to be, but it was growth nonetheless.
The next task for Herbert will be cutting down on his interceptions. He threw 15 this past season, five more than his rookie year. Now, he had nearly 100 more attempts so you can expect a few more picks, but it’s more than that. He went from one interception every 59.5 passing attempts to an interception every 44.8 passing attempts.
Herbert is still very young with a bright future. The growing pains are to be expected. If the Chargers can continue to add pieces around him while his contract is cheap, LA could have two Super Bowl contenders in a short period of time.
Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
The Matthew Stafford Experiment in Los Angeles is working and there’s still at least one more year of it left. The Rams went all-in when they broke the NFL a little over a year ago by acquiring Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions in a blockbuster deal. Now, they are going to the Super Bowl.
The LA Rams will have some decisions to make this coming offseason, but Stafford is one player they shouldn’t have to think twice about. The ability has always been there, the situation just hasn’t been right. Now that he’s on a solid team with weapons around him, Stafford is shining the way many knew he always could.
Odds are, Stafford is only going to be better next year with the Rams. He will have another offseason to learn the offense and increase chemistry with the players around him. During the regular season he attempted the most passes for him since 2014, accumulated the most yards since 2012 and matched his career-high for touchdowns in a season with 41, a number he last hit in 2011.
The downside is that Stafford led the NFC in interceptions with 17, the most for him since 2013. Regardless, Stafford has revived his career in Los Angeles and should continue to do so next season.
Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
A few months ago this answer probably would have been very different. In Tua Tagovailoa’s first five starts this season, the Miami Dolphins were just 1-4. Then, he went on a tear and won six straight, including seven of the last eight that he played in. Needless to say, he bought himself another year.
The reality for Tua is that he’s been fighting an uphill battle his entire NFL career, however short it might be at this point. He came into the league with high expectations and coming off an injury that some thought could end his professional career before it started. Then the rumors of a trade for Deshaun Watson mixed with a slow start put him even further behind in the eyes of fans.
The reality is, Tua and the Dolphins have had success. Miami has a winning record in both of his seasons when looking at games he has started. In 2020 he was 6-3 as a starter and in 2021 he was 7-5. The only concern now is keeping him on the field.
Starting 21 out of a possible 33 isn’t great. Some of those aren’t from injuries necessarily, but you still need more consistency than that at the quarterback position. Entering his third season, there’s still plenty of time for Tua to prove himself and he’s on the right track, but staying healthy will be key moving forward.
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins
This one was a last minute change. Had Jim Harbaugh accepted this head coaching position with the Minnesota Vikings I would be expecting a different quarterback, someone more mobility. Maybe a trade for Deshaun Watson? A reunion with Teddy Bridgewater? However, with Harbaugh out of the picture the future just became a bit brighter for Kirk Cousins.
Cousins hasn’t necessarily played poorly in Minnesota, he’s just fallen short of what people expected from him when he went to the Vikings. It’s kind of like a coach who just can’t get over the hump and win the important games. Cousins has just one double-digit win season since arriving in Minnesota. In fact, his record with the Vikings is only 33-29-1. That’s barely above .500 at a .524 winning percentage. If he was a coach, he’d probably be fired.
The Vikings won’t cut Cousins, at least not before June 1. That would result in $45 million in dead cap. They could trade him before June 1 and the hit would only be $10 million. Or, the most likely option, they give him one more shot to prove himself.
The only way Cousins doesn’t start week one for the Vikings in 2022 is if he’s injured or Minnesota makes a Stafford-like trade. The only difference is the Vikings aren’t close to where the Rams were in terms of the rest of the roster.
New England Patriots: Mac Jones
The New England Patriots replaced Tom Brady much faster than anyone anticipated. Now, Mac Jones is far from Brady and he has a lot more to accomplish, a lot more, before he’s even close to the same conversation. However, New England seems to have their answer at quarterback once again after just one year of wondering through quarterback purgatory.
Jones had arguably the best season by a rookie quarterback in 2021. The production was enough to be named to the Pro Bowl. He didn’t necessarily win games for New England, throwing only 22 touchdowns, but he didn’t lose them either and led them to a 10-win season.
We’ll see how Jones develops over time, but the small sample size is a good sign. It’s obvious he processes the game well and has a high football IQ. The stats will come in time, but what he’s doing now is all New England needs from him at the moment. He manages the game and makes plays when needed, but isn’t forcing things. That’s a solid sign of maturity from a rookie quarterback.
If his progression continues, he should work well in the Patriots’ system. It’ll be curious to see what happens without Josh McDaniels there, but I’m sure Bill Belichick will find a worthy suitor to fill the role.
New Orleans Saints: Jameis Winston
The New Orleans Saints are in the midst of a massive transition period. The first straw was Drew Brees retiring. Now this year they lose Sean Payton. Throw on top not having Michael Thomas this season and this Saints team looked much different than what we’re used to seeing from this team.
One bright spot was the resurgence of Jameis Winston. He only played seven games for the team, but there was clear improvement. In games that Winston played in, the Saints were 5-2. In games that Winston didn’t appear in, New Orleans was 4-6.
Besides the record difference, Winston’s stats show his effectiveness this past season. He cut down his interceptions drastically, throwing just three while tallying 14 touchdowns over his two games. The one downside was that his competition percentage was the lowest since his rookie season.
Winston is set to become a free agent this offseason and what happens under center in New Orleans will depend on how Dennis Allen works this staff. Does he hire new people or keep what Payton had? If the match works for Winston, he should be a shoe-in to return. However, it seems like Winston played well enough to earn at least another season with the Saints regardless of the staff unless there’s a dark horse quarterback interested in New Orleans.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones
The patience within the New York Giants organization for Daniel Jones is growing thin. Jones will be entering his fourth season with the Giants in 2022 and it could be his last chance to prove himself as their quarterback moving forward.
As a starter, Jones has a record of 12-25 but there’s been steady improvement for him over his career. His completion percentage has gone up each season in the league and his interception rate has gone down. He’s also been able to cut down his fumbles after having 19 as a rookie.
What’s holding Jones back is that while he has improved, the team’s outlook has not. He’s yet to win more than five games in a single season as the starter. Furthermore, he’s yet to start more than 14 games in a single season.
The hope is Brian Daboll can help push Jones along, the way he was able to mentor Josh Allen in Buffalo. The key to that will be keeping Jones on the field. It’s hard to show consistent growth when you aren’t consistently playing.
If Jones can play a full schedule and continue his trends in the completion and interception departments then he could keep this job moving forward. If not, then expect the Giants to be looking for a new quarterback a year from now.
New York Jets: Zach Wilson
Given the circumstances with the New York Jets, Zach Wilson didn’t do too bad in his rookie season. He led the league in sack yards, losing 370, and the weapons weren’t great, but there were flashes from Wilson and that will be enough for now.
Wilson showed chemistry with fellow rookie Elijah Moore and the duo should be able to grow together moving forward. The Jets just need to continue this rebuild around Wilson and everything could play out.
Wilson did have some normal rookie quarterback hiccups, like throwing more interceptions, 11, than he did touchdowns, nine. Now, he did rush for four touchdowns so he was still able to score more times than he threw the ball to the other team.
Like Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, the Jets have too much capital invested to move on from Wilson after one season. Like I said, there were flashes and the rough edges will work themselves out in time, especially after a full offseason in this system.
He still hasn’t set in stone that he can be the guy for the Jets, but there’s clear potential. If the Jets can find him a few more weapons and cut down on the sacks and yards lost to sacks, Wilson could have a solid sophomore season in 2022.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
There was a lot of growth for Jalen Hurts in his second season in the NFL and first as the regular starter from beginning to end. The start was a bit bumpy, going 2-5 to start the season, but he rebounded well and led the team to a playoff appearance. There’s still work to do, but Hurts’ growth is what teams like the Jets will be hoping to see in 2022.
After starting four games in 2020, Hurts entered the 2021 campaign as “the guy” in Philly. As the starter, he paced the Eagles to an 8-7 finish during the regular season. Hurts was able to total 26 touchdowns on the season, 16 passing and 10 rushing, while having just nine interceptions. That’s a rather decent ratio.
The outlook for Philadelphia is strong as well. The Eagles have three picks in the first round to continue this build and it should be Hurts at the helm. Some are calling for a quarterback with one of those picks, but Philly would be smart to add weapons, protection and defense around Hurts for the time being. He’s done enough to show he can run this offense and with some help could be even more of a dual threat weapon himself.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Derek Carr
The Pittsburgh Steelers proved this season that they aren’t done. Ben Roethlisberger might be, but the roster is still built to contend. T.J. Watt is a proven force on the defense, Najee Harris rejuvenated the running game, now they just need to find a new signal caller.
Like I said earlier, Jimmy Garoppolo could be in Las Vegas, meaning the Raiders could be looking to move Derek Carr. Carr has one more year left on his deal and the Raiders can trade or cut him with no dead cap. His cap number will also be under $20 million.
The Steelers only have about $32 million in cap space, so the odds of getting Aaron Rodgers or another top tier name is out. Holding the 20th pick, the Steelers have a shot at drafting a quarterback, but will they be ready? In-house there’s Mason Rudolph, but he hasn’t done enough to prove he can handle the job.
Carr would give Pittsburgh a one-year band-aid fix at quarterback. Worst case they cut ties and move on to someone different in a year. Best case, it works out and they re-sign Carr. The biggest question will be what a trade would cost. The Steelers are a team that builds through the draft, so unloading capital for a 31-year old quarterback might not be their plan. However, Carr gives them to best chance to continue what they’ve been doing for the last 18 years.
San Francisco 49ers: Trey Lance
Jimmy Garoppolo did a great job with the 49ers this season. Had he made the Super Bowl, I maybe would have rethought this. However, falling one game short will keep the circumstances the same. This will be Trey Lance‘s team in 2022.
This feels like the Alex Smith-Patrick Mahomes situation in Kansas City. Pause, I’m not saying Lance will be Mahomes. Just need to clarify that. Anyway, like Smith, Garoppolo had his fate sealed before the season even started. This was going to be Lance’s team moving forward one way or another, but Lance needed a season to adjust to the NFL game and learn the complicated Kyle Shanahan offense.
Keep in mind that Shanahan was the offensive coordinator on the team in Washington that had success with Robert Griffin III. He was the offensive coordinator in Cleveland during Johnny Manziel’s rookie season. Shanahan knows how to utilize mobile quarterbacks, but neither Griffin or Manziel had the arm that Lance has.
The limited sample size we had from Lance should be enough to give San Francisco the confidence to move forward with him. The team could regress slightly next year, but the future outlook might be better with Lance given the system that Shanahan runs.
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson
Pete Carroll staying in Seattle makes this call much easier for the Seahawks. If Carroll would have been fired, retired, etc. then moving Russell Wilson to another team would make a lot more sense and essentially kickstart a new era and rebuild in Seattle. Instead, Wilson should be back with the Seahawks next season.
The biggest hang up for Wilson is his contract. If Seattle were to trade or cut him before June 1 it would actually cost the organization more than they would save. A move would cost $26 million in dead cap while saving just $11 million. Even a deal after June 1 would cut that $26 million into two seasons, being $13 million in dead cap in both 2022 and 2023, while saving $24 million.
Considering the weight of Wilson’s contract, that alone could be enough to keep him in Seattle for at least one more season. He has two years left on his deal, but the dead cap a year from now isn’t too much better, costing $13 million while saving $27 million.
There’s no question that Seattle is in limbo a bit. They play in arguably the most difficult division in the NFL and they are on the wrong side of the swing. Los Angeles, San Francisco and Arizona have all been trending up while Seattle is going down. One more round for Wilson might be it, but the money is enough to force Seattle’s hand at quarterback in 2022.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Teddy Bridgewater
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have many pivotal decisions to make this offseason. They are set to lose a lot of pieces to free agency, potentially. The team only has about $27 million in cap space once Tom Brady is off the books. However, the list of players to re-sign includes Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, Ryan Jensen, Alex Cappa, Jason Pierre-Paul, William Gholston, Ndamukong Suh and Carlton Davis. This could be the beginning of a rebuild in Tampa.
As of now, Kyle Trask will be the only quarterback on the roster for next year. The Bucs are going to need their draft capital to rebuild what will be lost, so trading for a big name QB is out, or really any QB for that matter. They also are strapped by the cap, so a big quarterback free agent is out. Enter Teddy Bridgewater.
The NFL’s latest journeyman starter, Bridgewater is set to become a free agent and could be a cheap option to hold down the fort for a year. He’ll still only be 29-years old at the start of the 2022 season and while he hasn’t been outstanding, he’s been serviceable.
Over the last three seasons, Bridgewater has gone 16-18 as a starter with New Orleans, Carolina and Denver. He was even able to go 7-7 with the Broncos as the starter this past season.
There’s also the draw to Tampa for Bridgewater. This is an opportunity to start in his home state, originally from Miami, and take over a team that will still have pieces in place to be competitive. It isn’t a long-term solution, but it buys the Bucs time to set up a plan for the future.
Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill
Alright, the elephant in the room. The rumor is Aaron Rodgers is building a house outside Nashville. The move would make sense in terms of fit. The Rams have had success with Matthew Stafford and the Titans could see Rodgers as a way to replicate the move. The weapons are in place and Rodgers could be the final missing piece.
However, there’s one big thing that won’t let this happen. The salary cap. Tennessee is already projected to go over the cap next season. Adding Rodgers would require them moving Tannehill and that would result in at least $28 million in dead cap.
With that being said, we’re back to Ryan Tannehill as the quarterback moving forward in Tennessee. The Titans are a run-first team, but Tannehill has found success in the system, but there are reasons that the Titans could look elsewhere.
Over his three seasons in Tennessee, 2021 saw Tannehill throw the fewest touchdowns and the most interceptions of his tenure with the team. Now, that could be due to more pressure on him after Derrick Henry went down, but regardless it’s not great.
Could the Titans move on from Tannehill? Sure. The move would make sense. However, it would take a lot of creativity from the cap team. It makes more sense for them to stand pat with Tannehill, even if it’s just for one more year.
Washington Commanders: Taylor Heinicke
Keep in mind, week one. I don’t think Taylor Heinicke finishes the season as the starter in Washington, but he should start the season as the starting quarterback. He held down the fort in 2021 and can do the same in 2022 until their rookie is ready to take over.
Holding the 11th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, the Washington Commanders first draft pick under the new moniker could be an attempt to land their quarterback of the future in Malik Willis. Given where the Commanders will be picking, Willis could be the best option for them.
There’s still a lot of the draft process to go that will determine where quarterbacks will land and be projected. In the case of Willis, he has a similar skill set to Cam Newton, just in a smaller frame. We know the success that Ron Rivera had with Newton and he could try and replicate that with Willis.
Regardless, Willis won’t be ready to go week one making Heinicke the option to start the season. He already knows the system but it would also make sense for Willis to eventually take over for him during the season. It’s similar to what has happened to Tyrod Taylor the last two seasons, just hopefully without the injuries.