The first College Football Playoff semifinal pits #1 Alabama against #4 Cincinnati in a game littered with 2022 NFL Draft prospects.
CFP Semifinal, Cotton Bowl, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
#4 Cincinnati vs. #1 Alabama
For the University of Cincinnati football team, the dream season continues this Friday on New Year’s Eve. The Bearcats went into the year knowing they had to win every game they played (including road tests against Indiana and Notre Dame) in order to even have a chance at the College Football Playoff. They answered the bell at every turn, finishing the regular season a perfect 13-0 as the only remaining FBS team without a loss. They are the first group of five team to make the College Football Playoff, and they’ll be 13.5-point underdogs against Alabama Friday.
The Crimson Tide will be playing in their seventh College Football Playoff Semifinal in eight tries. This is becoming old hat for them. But this year their path to the playoff was more circuitous. They have looked great at times (beating undefeated Georgia by 17, thumping an Ole Miss team by 21 that finished 10-2) and pedestrian at others (losing to Texas A&M who went 4-4 in conference, only beating slumping LSU and Auburn by a combined 8 points). But they still have Nick Saban, the best college football coach of all time at the helm, and Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young under center. Alabama has several players that will be suiting up on Sundays next year, but two of them won’t be in action this weekend.
Wide receiver John Metchie III tore his ACL in the SEC Championship Game and he’ll miss the rest of the season. Starting cornerback Josh Jobe will also sit this one out for Alabama as he’s been dealing with a nasty turf toe injury that required surgery. But this game is worth watching simply for the matchups on the outside, the first of which we’ll cover in the next slide.
Alabama WR Jameson Williams vs. Cincinnati CB Ahmad Gardner
This is the marquee matchup of the day, even if Cincinnati’s other corner Coby Bryant, who took home the Thorpe Award for the nation’s best defensive back, is assigned to Williams. But for the purposes of this article, we’ll look at how potential 2022 NFL Draft picks Williams and Gardner stack up.
Jameson Williams is the best wide receiver in the country. He’s fifth in the country in receiving yards (1,445), third in receiving touchdowns (15) and one of only eight receivers in the country to average 20 yards or more per catch (21.3). He’s big (6’2” 189) and fast (4.4 seconds in the 40-yard dash in high school), and he’s excellent at tracking the ball on deep passes. There’s a smoothness and effortlessness to Jameson Williams’ play that needs to be seen to be explained. He’ll be a first rounder if/when he declares for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Williams likely won’t have an easy day on Friday though, because he’ll likely have American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year Ahmad Gardner covering him. Gardner is a Detroit native and has the size (6’3” 200 pounds) to match up well with Jameson Williams. It’s because of that size and his play style that I have Richard Sherman as a player comp for Ahmad Gardner.
Nicknamed “Sauce,” Gardner is a long physical cornerback with above average ball skills. He’s only allowed 12 catches for 87 yards this year on 26 targets. In addition to that, he has three interceptions and three sacks on the year. We’ll get to see how fast Gardner truly is on Friday, as there’s nowhere to hide when Jameson Williams goes deep. Who wins this matchup of 2022 NFL Draft prospects could go a long way in determining who’s going to ultimately win the game.
Alabama OT Evan Neal vs. Cincinnati EDGE Myjai Sanders
This is another premium matchup between future 2022 NFL Draft prospects. Evan Neal is a first rounder due in large part to his size (6’7” 350) and athleticism. He excels in the running game where he can use his gigantic frame to mow down defenders. He’s adept at pass blocking too, as he often uses his body to his advantage, anchoring and forcing defenders to try to run around him to the quarterback. Despite his run and pass blocking prowess, there are some concerns with Neal regarding his balance and lateral agility, which is what makes this matchup with Myjai Sanders so interesting.
Both Sanders and Neal have long arms for their positions, which should make for some fascinating battles on the edge. Myjai Sanders is considerably smaller than Neal (6’5” 258), but he’s quicker and more explosive as well. Production-wise Sanders has taken a step back in 2021 (his sacks, tackles for loss, and solo tackles are all down from his 2020 totals), but this could be because teams are focusing on him more. Two of Sanders’ teammates (Curtis Brooks and Joel Dublanko) both finished in the top eight in sacks for the American Athletic Conference, which suggests that teams were concentrating on stopping Sanders and forcing other players to beat them.
So, while Myjai Sanders’ 2022 NFL Draft stock might have taken a hit this season, he still made first team all-conference in the American, and if he makes a noticeable impact in this game against a surefire first round pick like Evan Neal, he could find his name rocketing up draft boards in the coming months.
Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder vs. Alabama’s vaunted defense
The 2022 NFL Draft is starved for quarterback prospects, and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder could make his case as a first or second-day pick with a good showing here. Alabama’s pass defense hasn’t been great this season, as they’ve given up 201.4 passing yards per game, good for 45th in the country. They’re 18th in points allowed per game with 20.2, and the Crimson Tide are third in the country with 46 sacks. On top of that, they’re tied for 10th in the country with 15 interceptions. And they’ll be without starting cornerback Josh Jobe on Friday.
But Desmond Ridder deserves some praise for how he’s played this season. He quarterbacked the Bearcats to their best season in school history, won the American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year Award, and ranked 11th nationally in passer rating (164.8). His raw passing stats were solid (3,190 yards, 30 TDs, 8 INTs, 9 yards per attempt) and he even ran for 371 yards and six touchdowns. Cincinnati is not in this position without Desmond Ridder.
But if you look closely at his two games against power five teams this year (at Indiana and at Notre Dame), Ridder was good, but not great. He failed to throw for 300 yards in either game, and his completion percentage was below 60% in both. He did rush for a touchdown in both games, and Cincinnati did win both contests by double digits.
The closest comparable opponent that the 6’4” 215-pound Louisville native has faced was likely the Georgia game in the Peach Bowl last year. In that game, Ridder threw for 206 yards and two touchdowns. The problem was, the Bulldogs sacked him eight times and Cincinnati lost 24-21. How will Ridder handle Alabama’s pass rush? Will Alabama’s secondary pick him off a few times? Will he be able to improvise and make plays off-schedule? In 2021, the Bearcats have gone as far as Ridder can take them (with a little help from the defense), and on the final calendar day of this year, I see that trend continuing.
Cincinnati WR Alec Pierce vs. Alabama CB Jalyn Armour-Davis
After missing the previous two games with a hip injury, Crimson Tide corner Jalyn Armour-Davis will be back in action on Friday, as he’s practiced all week and should be ready to go. And Alabama is going to need him against Cincinnati’s receiving corps, which is led by 6’3” 213-pound senior Alec Pierce.
Pierce was fourth in the American Athletic Conference in receiving yards with 867, tied for fifth in the conference in receiving touchdowns with eight, and first in the conference in yards per catch (17.3) among those with 50 catches or more. Pierce does most of his damage down the field, as he has deceptive speed and a long frame that allows him to reel in long passes thrown high. He hasn’t shown much of an affinity for going over the middle, but that could come in time as he hones his craft ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft and eventually sharpens the technical skills that most NFL receivers need.
Jalyn Armour-Davis presents a unique foil for Pierce. Armour-Davis is a 6’1” 192 redshirt junior out of Mobile, AL, and he’s recorded three interceptions on the year. His solid build makes him an interesting prospect for 2022 NFL Draft scouts to evaluate, and he’ll have a chance to flash some of his potential here.
Davis’s interceptions against Florida and Tennessee were both on balls thrown away from the receiver and right to him as he was sitting in zone coverage. Alabama will probably use some zone looks when it comes to pass defense on Friday to try to neutralize Ridder’s ability to run. From there it’s up to Jalyn Armour-Davis and the Crimson Tide’s other defensive backs (like 5-star freshman Kool-Aid McKinstry) to make plays in the back end.
Cincinnati RB Jerome Ford and their O-line vs. Alabama’s front seven
Jerome Ford is the best collegiate running back that you probably haven’t heard of. He’s a 5’11” 220-pound Tampa product that played two years at Alabama before transferring to Cincinnati. This game is likely personal for him. It could also go a long way toward improving his 2022 NFL Draft stock. In two years for the Crimson Tide, Ford only carried the ball 31 times. This year alone he had 200 carries. He led the American Athletic Conference in rushing yards (1,242) and rushing touchdowns (19) while being efficient with his runs (6.2 yards per carry).
Ford has shown elite vision, good patience, and has been tough to bring down at a compact 220 pounds. There were shades of Le’veon Bell as Ford would sometimes stutter step, skip, and pick his way through the hole instead of simply bursting through it. Many of his explosive plays have come between the tackles on shotgun runs as the defense is usually spread out and has to worry about Desmond Ridder keeping the ball.
Ford has been helped enormously this year by his offensive line. There were three Bearcat offensive linemen named to the all-conference first team for the American: tackle Dylan O’Quinn, guard Lorenz Metz, and center Jake Renfro. This will be their greatest test of the season by far as they try to block Alabama’s front seven.
Alabama sophomore linebacker Will Anderson Jr. took home the Bronco Nagurski award this season for defensive player of the year and he should have been invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. Anderson tied for the most sacks in the country with 15.5 and had the most tackles for loss in the FBS with 30, which was 10 more than anyone else. Only a sophomore, Will Anderson Jr. isn’t eligible for the 2022 NFL Draft, but when he does come out he’ll likely be a first round pick.
Also, worth noting on the Alabama defense is senior defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis. He’s 6’4” 312 pounds and has a knack for stuffing the run. He routinely controls two gaps along the offensive line, making it extremely tough for opponents to run the ball to his side of the field. Before the season many wondered about Mathis’ pass rushing chops, but those concerns were largely laid to rest as he recorded eight sacks while mainly playing on the inside. If Alabama shuts down Cincinnati’s running game on Friday, it will likely be because Mathis is wreaking havoc on the interior.