NFL Sophomore Watch: Tua Tagovailoa might be traded

Miami Dolphins second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been plagued by injuries and inconsistent play in his first two NFL seasons. Will Miami move him?

Picking quarterbacks in the first round of the NFL Draft is at times akin to throwing darts. Just ask the Miami Dolphins. Since the heyday of Dan Marino they’ve been trying to find their next franchise quarterback, and it hasn’t been going very well.

In the 2020 NFL Draft, the Dolphins selected Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the 5th overall pick in the first round. Tagovailoa was and is somewhat of an enigma. He’s left-handed and was listed as a dual threat quarterback during his recruitment. He stands 6’1″ 217 and his college team went 30-2 in games that he played.

Just behind Tagovailoa, the Los Angeles Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the 6th pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Herbert won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 set the NFL rookie records for touchdown passes in season, completions in a rookie season, and most 300 yard passing games by a rookie quarterback.

Because of where he was drafted, Tua Tagovailoa has been compared to Herbert and the number one overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Joe Burrow. Their development has been the center of talks between analysts and fans from that draft. Before a devastating injury to Tagovailoa near the tail end of his junior year at Alabama, he was the likely number one overall pick whenever he decided to declare.

After the injury, questions arose about his future, and Tagovailoa quite frankly hasn’t played well enough to dispel those concerns. But before we get to the present, and the possible trade that could go down, let’s start at the beginning.

The College Years

Tua Tagovailoa is of Samoan descent and grew up in Hawaii. He went to Saint Louis School in Honolulu, the same school that former Oregon and current Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Marcus Mariota attended. Tagovailoa knew Mariota and considered him a mentor growing up. Tagovailoa had a decorated high school career where he was named to the All-American Bowl, which is a high school all-star game.

He was also invited to the Elite 11 quarterback competition, where he earned the MVP. Former NFL quarterback and Super Bowl winner Trent Dilfer is the head coach of the Elite 11 and has spoken at length about Tua Tagovailoa’s talent.

Coming out of high school Tagovailoa was the top-ranked recruit from the state of Hawaii and the #1 dual threat quarterback recruit. He was named a 5-star prospect (the highest possible rating) by multiple recruiting agencies. He enrolled at Alabama in January of 2017 and began his true freshman season as the Crimson Tide’s backup to incumbent quarterback Jalen Hurts.

In 2017 Tagovailoa scant saw action, usually only being inserted into games when Alabama was blowing out the other team. But his big moment came in the College Football Playoff National Championship game, when Alabama and Crimson Tide starting quarterback Jalen Hurts played poorly and trailed Georgia 13-0 at halftime. Tagovailoa played the second half of that game, and led Alabama to a spirited comeback, capped off by a game-winning 41-yard touchdown pass to Devonta Smith in overtime. The Crimson Tide triumphed 26-23, and Tua Tagovailoa was named the offensive MVP of the game. Tua Tagovailoa had officially arrived.

2018 was the banner year for Tua Tagovailoa. He dominated the SEC and college football at large, leading Alabama to a 14-1 record and throwing for 3,966 yards on a dizzying 11.2 yards per pass attempt. His touchdown to interception ratio was a gaudy 43-6, and he finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting to Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray. Tagovailoa set the NCAA record for single season passer rating at 199.4. The one blemish on his standout season was the National Championship game against Clemson (which we’ll touch on more later) where Tagovailoa was intercepted twice, and his team got shellacked 44-16.

2019 was more of the same for Tua Tagovailoa, as he actually improved his completion percentage from 69% in 2018 to 71.4% in 2019. He slightly improved his yards per pass attempt to 11.3 and had a sparkling 33-3 touchdown to interception ratio before he was severely injured in a road game against Mississippi State late in the year. Alabama was leading the game 35-7 in the second quarter at the time of the injury and many wondered why he was still in the game. He had apparently lobbied his head coach Nick Saban to keep him in, and it cost both men dearly.

The Injury

On the play in question, Tua Tagovailoa took the shotgun snap, held the ball, was pressured, rolled to his left and threw the ball away. Two Mississippi State defenders were pursuing him and they both fell on him simultaneously as he was releasing the ball. Tua fell forward onto his knees, and the subsequent impact from the two defenders falling on top him caused his hip to dislocate and a fracture to the hip’s posterior wall. His helmet came off and he also suffered a broken nose and concussion on the same play.

The hip injury was so severe that it was similar to those that occur in serious car accidents where a person’s knee slams into the dashboard and jams the femur bone back into the hip. Tagovailoa was taken to a hospital, and some have categorized the injury as similar to the one that ended Bo Jackson’s career. The chief difference between Tua Tagovailoa and Bo Jackson’s hip injuries are the passage of time and advances in medical knowledge. The Alabama trainers knew almost immediately what the problem was, and they reset Tua’s hip as soon as he got back to the locker room, a mere 5 minutes after the injury occurred. Doing this prevented blood flow issues and dramatically reduced the risk of long-term complications. Tagovailoa had surgery two days later in Houston and he was ruled out for the rest of the season.

But prior to this catastrophic injury, Tua Tagovailoa had suffered several other minor injuries that might give credence to those who might label him injury prone. In March 2018 Tua broke his finger after he dinged it on a linemen’s helmet after throwing a pass. In October of 2018 he sprained his knee against Missouri but didn’t miss any time. In December of 2018 Tua got his foot stepped on by one of his own linemen and he suffered a high ankle sprain. Those watching that game might remember that this happened in the SEC Championship Game where Jalen Hurts came off the bench and led Alabama to the victory. Tua got a “tightrope procedure” to heal his ankle, and he was able to play in Alabama’s playoff game against Oklahoma on December 29th.

In October of 2019 Tua Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle sprain to the same ankle he injured during the SEC Championship Game, and he again elected to have a tightrope procedure performed. Then in November of 2019 Tua suffered the devastating season-ending injury to his hip that ended his season and eventually his Alabama career. In January of 2020 he announced he would be declaring for the NFL Draft. He finished his career at Alabama with a 22-2 record as a starter and set the NCAA records for passer efficiency rating, touchdown pass percentage, and average yards gained per play.

The Prospect

It’s easy to see why NFL scouts were excited about Tua Tagovailoa. He was a unique talent, a quarterback who could buy time with his legs and fling the ball deep downfield with incredible accuracy. The raw physical tools were (and probably still are) there. His arm strength and the way the ball comes off his hand really pops on film. He throws a tight spiral and has an efficient motion that appears effortless. But it wasn’t just that he had a big arm and was more mobile than most quarterbacks.

For scouts evaluating Tua Tagovailoa, it was the intangibles. The way he led Alabama back from down 13 points in the second half of the National Championship Game as a true freshman spoke to how much confidence he had in himself and his natural ability to lead a team. His final two touchdown passes in that game, one on fourth down with under four minutes left in the game that he had to improvise, and one in overtime on 2nd and 26 where he threw a 45-yard missile to win the game were the stuff of legend.

Tua Tagovailoa’s success the next two years seemed to cement his status as QB1 in the 2020 NFL Draft, until Joe Burrow went full supernova and Tagovailoa got severely injured. Now there were some doubts about Alabama’s star quarterback, and it wasn’t a slam dunk that Tua Tagovailoa was going to go in the top five or even the top 10.

Now that National Championship blowout loss against Clemson at the end of the 2018 season seemed like a bigger deal. In that game, not only did Tua Tagovailoa throw two interceptions (including one that went for a touchdown), but he also fumbled once, and Alabama only went 3-6 on its fourth down conversions. His yards per attempt in that game was 8.7, a significant dip from the 11.2 he posted throughout that season.

But what was worse was that it seemed like Tagovailoa was confused with some of the coverages Clemson was running. Teams started noticing that he wasn’t great with his eye discipline. Sometimes he would stare down his receiver, telegraphing his pass to the defense before he threw it.

Paradoxically, playing on a team as stacked as Alabama may have hurt Tagovailoa and his development. He was consistently throwing to future NFL receivers (many of them first rounders), so he was routinely passing to wide open players. And if they weren’t open, he could throw the ball up there anyway and trust that his receivers were going to make the play. He also had some of the best linemen in the country and future NFL draft picks lining up behind him at running back. If that wasn’t enough, he had a stout defense that, when it wasn’t getting turnovers was frequently setting him up with advantageous field position. He might have been playing in the SEC, but the SEC isn’t the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins found that out together.

In Miami

Ryan Fitzpatrick was the starter to begin the 2020 season for the Miami Dolphins. He was 37 years old and on his 8th team at the start of last season. Fitzpatrick has a reputation as a “bridge” quarterback where he can be a team’s placeholder until they find their next franchise quarterback.

Tua Tagovailoa saw brief game action at the end of a week 6 contest against the Jets and started his first game in a week 8 showdown with the Los Angeles Rams. Some veterans on the team were surprised that he was handed the reins that early. And thus began a tumultuous rookie season for Tagovailoa as he made 9 starts, going 6-3 in those games. He was benched in week 11 against the Bengals and missed a week 12 game with a jammed thumb. In week 16 against the Las Vegas Raiders, Tua Tagovailoa was benched again as Ryan Fitzpatrick completed a deep pass while being face-masked and led the Dolphins to an improbable last-second comeback win.

The final numbers on Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie season weren’t terrible on the surface. He finished with 1,814 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He also ran for 3 touchdowns. But the concerning number is his paltry 6.3 yards per pass attempt. And that little number was indicative of a coaching staff’s feelings towards their potential franchise QB.

Many who watched Tua Tagovailoa last year would say that he was handled with kid gloves. He got the Mitchell Trubisky treatment. What that means is that the coaching staff wouldn’t put a lot on his plate. They wouldn’t ask him to do too much. Whether they didn’t trust him or wanted to protect his confidence isn’t exactly clear, but it’s generally a bad sign when a QB’s own coaching staff doesn’t want to put the game in his hands. If that wasn’t damning enough, some of Tagovailoa’s teammates offered some less than flattering anonymous quotes this offseason, expressing hesitancy that he could be “the guy” for Miami.

Dolphins GM Chris Grier stated that Tua Tagovailoa was slated to be the starter in 2021. One Dolphins player in reference to that fact commented, “I understand what they said. I don’t understand why.” Miami Herald reporter Armando Salguero reported that multiple Dolphins players are “not convinced that Tagovailoa is going to be great in the future.” When comparing Tagovailoa to elite AFC quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, they don’t really feel there is a comparison. Referring to Allen and Mahomes, one defensive player offered this: “Those are the boys we got to beat right? It looks right now like that’s going to be a big challenge.”

2021 and Beyond

Many great quarterbacks have struggled their rookie season and gone on to good and even great careers. Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning holds the record for interceptions thrown by a rookie quarterback with 28 in 1998. NFL signal callers can grow and learn from the lumps they take early on in their careers. But they need to be on the field to do that.

The injury bug bit Tua Tagovailoa again in 2021. In week 2 against the Buffalo Bills Tua was hit hard by Buffalo pass rusher AJ Epenesa on a fourth down pass attempt. He was visibly in pain on the field and eventually took a cart to the locker room. It was later announced that Tua Tagovailoa had broken several ribs. He missed a month before returning to the field last Sunday in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In that game, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns. The problem was, he only averaged 7 yards per attempt, threw an interception, and his team lost to an atrocious and previously winless Jaguars team.

The NFL trade deadline is November 2nd. As of this writing that’s less than two weeks away. There have been many rumors linking the Miami Dolphins to currently inactive Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson is facing several allegations and has yet to play a game for the Houston Texans this year. As of right now, Watson is technically eligible to play. But the NFL is conducting its own investigation into Watson’s conduct, and it remains to be seen if he will eventually be suspended.

Before these allegations came to light, Deshaun Watson had demanded a trade away from the Houston Texans. He had signed a massive 4-year, $156 million extension in September of 2020 with the assurance that he would have input on personnel decisions, including the hiring of the head coach and the general manager. The Texans promptly hired GM Nick Caserio without consulting Watson at all and they initially ignored Watson’s request that the team interview Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy for the head coaching job. Then the allegations came to light.

The link between Tua Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson is that if the Dolphins were to bring in Watson, they would almost certainly be shipping Tagovailoa out of town, either to the Texans or to  a different franchise.

Regardless of whether a deal for Watson actually gets done, the fact that the Dolphins are actively trying to bring in another quarterback (especially one with this much baggage), should tell you all you need to know regarding their feelings about Tua Tagovailoa. They don’t think he’s “the guy.”