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NFL Sophomore Watch: Tua Tagovailoa might be traded

By Andrew Fischer

Oct 17, 2021; London, England, United Kingdom; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the ball in the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars during an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 17, 2021; London, England, United Kingdom; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the ball in the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars during an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Feb 25, 2020; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa during the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 25, 2020; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa during the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

The Prospect

It’s easy to see why NFL scouts were excited about Tua Tagovailoa. He was a unique talent, a quarterback who could buy time with his legs and fling the ball deep downfield with incredible accuracy. The raw physical tools were (and probably still are) there. His arm strength and the way the ball comes off his hand really pops on film. He throws a tight spiral and has an efficient motion that appears effortless. But it wasn’t just that he had a big arm and was more mobile than most quarterbacks.

For scouts evaluating Tua Tagovailoa, it was the intangibles. The way he led Alabama back from down 13 points in the second half of the National Championship Game as a true freshman spoke to how much confidence he had in himself and his natural ability to lead a team. His final two touchdown passes in that game, one on fourth down with under four minutes left in the game that he had to improvise, and one in overtime on 2nd and 26 where he threw a 45-yard missile to win the game were the stuff of legend.

Tua Tagovailoa’s success the next two years seemed to cement his status as QB1 in the 2020 NFL Draft, until Joe Burrow went full supernova and Tagovailoa got severely injured. Now there were some doubts about Alabama’s star quarterback, and it wasn’t a slam dunk that Tua Tagovailoa was going to go in the top five or even the top 10.

Now that National Championship blowout loss against Clemson at the end of the 2018 season seemed like a bigger deal. In that game, not only did Tua Tagovailoa throw two interceptions (including one that went for a touchdown), but he also fumbled once, and Alabama only went 3-6 on its fourth down conversions. His yards per attempt in that game was 8.7, a significant dip from the 11.2 he posted throughout that season.

But what was worse was that it seemed like Tagovailoa was confused with some of the coverages Clemson was running. Teams started noticing that he wasn’t great with his eye discipline. Sometimes he would stare down his receiver, telegraphing his pass to the defense before he threw it.

Paradoxically, playing on a team as stacked as Alabama may have hurt Tagovailoa and his development. He was consistently throwing to future NFL receivers (many of them first rounders), so he was routinely passing to wide open players. And if they weren’t open, he could throw the ball up there anyway and trust that his receivers were going to make the play. He also had some of the best linemen in the country and future NFL draft picks lining up behind him at running back. If that wasn’t enough, he had a stout defense that, when it wasn’t getting turnovers was frequently setting him up with advantageous field position. He might have been playing in the SEC, but the SEC isn’t the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins found that out together.

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