The curious case of Jalen Hurts and his future with the Philadelphia Eagles

Six weeks into his second season, there still appear to be more questions than answers regarding the future of Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.

Few quarterbacks have had a more complicated path to becoming an NFL starter than Jalen Hurts. He became the first true freshman quarterback to start at Alabama and ended up benched in the national championship game after two seasons. He then transferred to Oklahoma, where he was a Heisman finalist and led the Sooners to a playoff appearance.

Hurts was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles 53rd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft to back up recently extended Carson Wentz. Hurts wasn’t supposed to see the field as a rookie, barring an injury, but once again, things didn’t go as planned for him. Wentz and the Philadelphia offense struggled, and Hurts was thrown in to lead what was a mess of an offense to close out the season and did enough for the Eagles to trade Wentz in the offseason and name Hurts to the full-time starter.

Throughout all the uncertainty Hurts has dealt with, he has always stayed ready for when his name was called, and although much of the controversy is behind him, there are still many questions surrounding the 23-year-old quarterback. He has proven he is good enough to start in the NFL but is that enough to stop the Philadelphia Eagles from looking for other options after this season?

How has Jalen Hurts looked so far in 2021?

Through six games, Hurts has bounced between good and below average, depending on the week. Other than the season opener against the woeful Atlanta defense, there hasn’t been too much from Hurts that’s been overly impressive, but there also hasn’t been too much that’s been overly negative. Overall, this balances out to a solid start to 2021.

Hurts has struggled against tougher competition. 

On the year, Hurts sits with eight passing touchdowns and four interceptions, on a 62.5 percent completion percentage. This is all respectable from a second-year quarterback, but looking at the numbers from week to week, there are some concerns to note. Of Hurts’ eight passing touchdowns, three came against Atlanta in week one. From weeks two through six, Hurts has had a much less favorable ratio of five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. The problem with looking at stats six weeks into a season is that the smaller sample size makes it easier for an outlier performance to skew the numbers. It’s not fair to say that we shouldn’t look at Hurts’ best performance of the season, but it is worth noting he hasn’t looked nearly as good in the games since.

The main thing that sticks out with Hurts’ numbers is that he has struggled to throw the ball against better defenses. It’s common knowledge that players perform better against lesser competition. Still, the discrepancy between the Jalen Hurts seen against some of the worst defenses in the league like Kansas City and Atlanta compared to when he’s faced Tampa Bay and San Francisco is concerning. Having a quarterback that struggles completing passes against a good team puts a handicap on the offense and is something Hurts will need to be better with going forward.

Jalen Hurts has been able to use his athleticism.

One area that has been fairly consistent in Hurts’ game is his rushing ability. He isn’t quite a Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray level athlete, but he’s right up there with guys like Justin Fields and Russell Wilson as one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the game. Hurts is currently on pace for 850 rushing yards this year, and he’s used his ability on the ground to make up for the games where he isn’t throwing the ball as well. Having a quarterback that is able to use his athleticism to extend passing plays and pick up yardage on designed runs is very valuable and helps Hurts’ case to be a franchise quarterback.

What do advanced stats say about Jalen Hurts?

When evaluating a potential franchise quarterback, it’s important to look deeper than just the box scores. The biggest disappointment of Jalen Hurts’ career has been the inaccuracy of his deep ball. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hurts’ intended air yards per pass (7.9), essentially meaning the average depth of target, and is higher than the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray.

This means that Hurts is taking shots down the field, but when it comes to average completed air yards per attempt (4.8), meaning the average depth of target on completed passes, Hurts is one of the lowest in the league, only ahead of Jacoby Brissett, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Geno Smith, and Jared Goff. Although Hurts has been willing to take deep shots this season, he hasn’t been able to connect consistently.

When it comes to overall grade and production stats, Hurts is a middle-of-the-pack starter. He is currently ranked 21st in EPA (expected points added) per play and 17th in CPOE (completion percentage over expected). Of any advanced stat, PFF seems to be the most favorable of Hurts. Hurts’ 79.0 pff grade ranks 15th overall and third in the 2020 NFL Draft class behind Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.

Overall, most advanced stats suggest that Hurts is a solid quarterback, but is quite a ways from being a top quarterback. It’s hard to say if any of these numbers should really change how you feel about Jalen Hurts, but the extra information can’t hurt when trying to figure out a player’s trajectory.

How much can Jalen Hurts grow? 

The million-dollar question isn’t how good Jalen Hurts is right now; it’s how good can he be? This is a little bit of a gray area. He is a great runner and shows flashes of solid passing that he should be able to build on in later years. The biggest concern for Hurts is if he can develop his weaknesses quick enough.

He doesn’t appear to be as natural of a passer, which is something that dates back to his college days. Hurts averaged 14.6 passes per game in the three seasons he started in college. He’s always displayed solid accuracy and sound decision-making, but for the most part, he hasn’t been efficient as a high-volume passer. It’s hard to be a high-end NFL quarterback if you aren’t fully comfortable passing, and it’s still a question mark for Hurts.

One of the main reasons Hurts hasn’t been a consistent passer is his below-average processing. Hurts is good when throwing to his first read but tends to panic when his main target isn’t open. This has been a big issue in Hurts’ game dating back to college and it’s hard to break habits. His ceiling as a passer will always be relatively low if he can’t get past his first read.

The Eagles don’t have as much invested in Jalen Hurts.

Since Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick, the Eagles front office doesn’t have as much riding on his development. A quarterback who was taken in the top ten is under a lot more pressure to succeed because the organization spent so much draft capital on him. This isn’t to say that moving on from Hurts is what the Eagles want to do but Hurts not being a day one selection could make it easier for the organization to make a change since they still haven’t fully committed to him for the long run.

In the end, Jalen Hurts has the Philadelphia Eagles organization in a tough spot. He’s proven to be a solid starter, but it’s unclear if he has the necessary tools to be the franchise quarterback the team wants. Although there is still a lot of football to be played, the Eagles will eventually need to make a decision on their young quarterback.