Indianapolis Colts on pace to give up a top-3 pick in 2022 NFL Draft
The Indianapolis Colts didn’t have an 0-3 start in mind when they traded for quarterback Carson Wentz. They’re on pace to give up a top-3 pick in 2022.
After making the playoffs with Philip Rivers at the helm in 2020, the Indianapolis Colts made an aggressive move to go after former Philadelphia Eagles top pick Carson Wentz in a big offseason trade. The rationale was understandable.
Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles during Wentz’s early development, and despite some of Wentz’s struggles with injuries and inconsistent play, it was understandable for the Colts to believe they could sort of resurrect Wentz’s career, so to speak.
So far in the 2021 season, the Colts are 0-3 and competing with the Jacksonville Jaguars for last place in the AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts on pace to lose a top-3 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft
The Indianapolis Colts undoubtedly planned on Carson Wentz helping get this team back to the playoffs again in 2021, but so far, he’s closer to helping them give the Philadelphia Eagles a top-3 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Although the Colts are tied with four other teams for the worst record in the league right now, their strength of schedule currently has them picking third overall behind the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Let’s revisit the terms of the Carson Wentz trade.
Indianapolis Colts get:
- QB Carson Wentz
Philadelphia Eagles get:
It’s complicated.
Initially, the Eagles received just the 85th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
They also received a conditional second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft which could escalate to a first-round pick based on multiple factors.
If the Colts made the playoffs and Carson Wentz played 70 percent of the snaps en route, the Colts’ first-round pick would go to Philadelphia.
If Carson Wentz plays 75 percent of the Colts’ snaps regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs, the Eagles get their first-round pick.
Uh oh.
As of this particular point in time (it’s still extremely early), Wentz has played 98 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps.
There’s still plenty of time for the Colts to figure some things out and turn it around, but history has not been kind to teams that start 0-3.
Less than four percent of teams starting 0-3 historically end up making the playoffs. That means that right now, the Philadelphia Eagles have a very good chance of receiving a top-15 pick from the Indianapolis Colts.
If the Colts continue losing games and are on pace for a top-10 pick midway through the season, you can’t help but wonder if they would consider shutting Wentz down to lower the return going back to the Eagles.
At some point, they will have to start thinking about that if they haven’t already.
If the Colts lose this weekend and drop to 0-4, could we see some substantial changes made?
If the playoffs are out of reach too early, the Eagles may start worrying that the Colts will just pull Wentz and tank the rest of the season, meaning Philadelphia would only get a pick in the 30s or early 40s instead of potentially the top 20.
Interesting decisions ahead for the Colts, to be certain.