2022 NFL Draft: What to make of Spencer Rattler’s early season struggles

After Spencer Rattler’s slow start, fans and analysts are questioning if he truly is the elite quarterback prospect they thought

1,017 yards, 10 total touchdowns, and three interceptions isn’t a bad way to start the season for most quarterbacks. But Spencer Rattler isn’t supposed to be just any quarterback. He came into the season as one of the betting favorites to win the Heisman trophy and be taken No. 1 in the 2022 NFL Draft class.

So far, Rattler has struggled to meet lofty expectations. He’s had his ups and downs, and Oklahoma has hardly looked like the championship contender they were billed as in the preseason.

Fans have the tendency to overreact when a player with high expectations has a slow start to a season, but this feels different. Rattler hasn’t looked like an NFL quarterback so far this season, and the season is already 1/3 of the way finished.

To make matters worse, it’s not like Rattler has faced stellar competition. Teams like Tulane are supposed to be highlight reel games where a player like Rattler can pad his stats, not nail biters that come down to the final minute.

It’s not just fans that have questioned Rattler’s NFL readiness. 

It’s not just fans that have taken notice of Rattler’s slow start. Many draft experts and analysts have moved him down considerably on their boards. Rattler is no longer QB1 for 2022, and there is some speculation if we will even end up declaring for the draft after this year.

2022 NFL Draft Why is Spencer Rattler falling?

As mentioned before, it’s not as if Rattler is playing poorly; he is just failing to match the mammoth expectations he was handed going into the season. Much of the optimism towards Rattler’s draft stock was built on the assumption he would continue to improve.

Being only a redshirt freshman in 2020 and having limited preparation for the season due to COVID-19, many were excited to see what Rattler could do with a year of experience under his belt and a typical offseason.  Many fans, including myself, thought these improved circumstances could lead to a historic season for the Sooner quarterback.

Spencer Rattler has shown little improvement

There just isn’t much growth in Rattler’s game from 2020 to this year. He is still very comfortable making plays from outside of the pocket and is able to use his rushing ability from time to time as well. But the overall product isn’t much better than it was last year.

Oklahoma’s offense lacks explosiveness

Rattler’s completion percentage is up over six points compared to last year, but the statistic has more to do with Rattler attempting more short passes than he did last year.

Rattler’s yards per attempt is down from 9.6 to 7.5 this year, so the improvement to completion percentage hasn’t really made him a more efficient passer.

The lack of big plays has made Oklahoma’s more stagnant and is a big part of why they struggled to put up points against unranked teams like Nebraska and West Virginia.

Spencer Rattler may be getting into his own head 

Battling through adversity is always easier said than done, especially for a player who hasn’t had to face it for most of his life. Some of the bad on Rattler’s tape are things that he just needs to do a better job with, things like taking care of the football and staying composed in the pocket, but there are also some plays where he is just missing throws that he is more than capable of making.

There are times where he seems to overthink and overcomplicate things. Rattler had a lot on his plate coming into the season and maybe it was more than he can handle.

Final thoughts: 

Four games isn’t the biggest sample size to go off of, but it’s a big enough one that there should at least be some questions as to how ready Rattler really is for the NFL. If he still plans to go pro after this season, there are some things he’s going to need to work on.

The good thing for him is he still has time to get things together. If everything comes together in conference play and he leads Oklahoma into the playoff, many scouts may be willing to overlook his slow start.

What’s the most concerning to me is the first part of the season was supposed to be a pretty easy stretch for Rattler, and the fact Oklahoma has won by seven or fewer points in three of those games, isn’t the most reassuring thing.

This summer, I wrote an article about Rattler that pointed some of the striking similarities he had with Patrick Mahomes back when he was at Texas Tech and although I still believe that to be true, what I’ve come to realize in these first few weeks is I’m not sure if Rattler has the physical tools to project as favorably to the professional level as Mahomes.

Right now I see Rattler as a Zach Wilson type of prospect, which is still very good, but he may not be the slam-dunk prospect I thought he was a few months ago. That’s why I could see someone like Malik Willis or Matt Coral jump him in the draft.