NFL Sophomore Watch: Can Justin Herbert repeat his magical 2020 season?

Coming off a standout rookie season, Justin Herbert will try to lead an upstart Chargers team over the playoff-hopeful Dallas Cowboys.

Some pundits say that year three is the decisive year for young quarterbacks and their development. They’ve taken their lumps, spent some time in the offense, got to know all their coaches and teammates, and that third season is when they put it all together.

But over the past decade, that timeline seems to have sped up. Now almost every rookie quarterback taken in the first round gets to (or is forced to) play during his rookie year.

Many QBs start from day one. And if the quarterback is playing, and he was taken with a high draft pick, he has to start producing sooner rather than later. Maybe it’s the larger culture and shorter attention spans that have caused this shift, or maybe coaches just want to save their jobs.

Whatever the reason, pressure on rookie quarterbacks taken in the top 10 of the NFL Draft has never been higher.

Which makes what Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert did last year that much more impressive.

The Los Angeles Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the 6th overall pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft, with the intention of sitting him behind Tyrod Taylor for several games. That plan went out the window when Taylor suffered an injury right before kickoff of week 2 at the hands of the team doctor.

Taylor was getting a pain-killing injection for cracked ribs when the needle was inserted into his chest cavity and accidentally punctured his lung.

Justin Herbert started that game and every contest after that, lighting up the league to the tune of 4,673 passing yards, 32 passing TDs, and only 11 interceptions. If that wasn’t enough, he ran for 233 yards and 5 touchdowns as well.

During 2020, Justin Herbert set the NFL record for most touchdown passes for a rookie QB and became only the fourth rookie quarterback ever to throw for 4,000 yards. The others were all number one overall picks (Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Jameis Winston).

Despite the elite production, Justin Herbert and the Chargers went 6-9 in games he started. This wasn’t a terrible season, however, as 7 of those 9 losses were by one score (8 points) or less. Additionally, the Chargers ended the season by winning 4 straight games, including 3 in a row over division foes.

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Herbert’s early success could be a blessing and a curse. Now there are expectations, and it’s not inconceivable to see the Chargers angling for a playoff spot in 2021. However, with how well Herbert played, some regression might be in order. With a full year of tape, defensive coordinators can break down what Herbert could and couldn’t do effectively and tailor their game plans accordingly.

Plus, he set the bar so high that surpassing those numbers seems like a lofty goal. How do you do better than 4,600 yards and 30 TDs your rookie season? Maybe the statistic he’ll try to improve is his team’s record, as flipping a few of those one-score games would have put the Chargers at 10 wins and in position for a possible playoff spot.

The road to the playoffs continues Sunday for the Chargers in Inglewood, CA.