Buffalo Bills still taking a calculated risk with Josh Allen contract

The Buffalo Bills signed quarterback Josh Allen to a massive contract extension. Their patience paid off, but is Allen’s MVP-level play here to stay?

From 2018 to 2020, it’s not unfair or flat-out hyperbole to say that there is probably no football player in the entire world that improved more than Buffalo Bills quarterback and MVP runner-up Josh Allen. Allen was one of the more highly debated prospects of the 2018 NFL Draft as he struggled to reign in his unbelievable arm strength at times and had far too many errant throws for the liking of NFL talent evaluators, pundits, and armchair GMs.

The Buffalo Bills saw an opportunity to move up for an elite and very rare physical talent, and they committed to either sinking or floating on the Josh Allen ship, no matter what.

Over two seasons as the starter at Wyoming, Allen completed just over 56 percent of his passes. Drops certainly played a role in that completion percentage, but there were definitely some concerns over Allen’s issues with accuracy coming into the NFL.

In his rookie season, he completed 52.8 percent of his passes. In 2019, that percentage jumped to 58.8 percent.

With 60 percent really being a sort of a bare minimum, Allen going four straight seasons — two in college, two in the pros — with a worse than 60 percent completion rate simply did not scream long-term contract.

In the 2020 season, however, Allen exploded.

He completed 69.2 percent of his passes and threw for 4,544 yards with 37 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. His interception percentage was a career-low 1.7 percent and his yards per game jumped from 193.1 in 2019 to 284.0 in 2020.

In addition to his drastically improved passing efficiency, Allen’s dominance as a runner also continued. He’s averaging over 8 rushing touchdowns per season in his three years in the NFL, which has unquestionably helped the Buffalo Bills’ patience with his development.

The addition of Stefon Diggs in 2020 was absolutely massive for Allen and the Buffalo Bills as a team, but having Diggs alone didn’t make Allen a more accurate passer and better decision-maker. He put in the work, the Bills invested in his development, and it has paid off for Allen in a big, big way.

Buffalo Bills fans are rightly ecstatic to hopefully have a quarterback in place that can help this team contend with the likes of Patrick Mahomes for the foreseeable future. Allen was a legitimate MVP candidate this past season and frankly is a much more dynamic athlete than Mahomes.

The question at this point is — can Allen sustain or come close to matching his 2020 production in the years to come? Can he exceed those numbers, even?

It’s extremely difficult to say.

Again, the Buffalo Bills’ front office and coaching staff have rightly hitched their jobs to Allen since trading up to get him in the 2018 NFL Draft. He’s their guy, and after two “tough” years, Allen burst onto the scene as a true MVP candidate in 2020.

Skeptics will wonder, however, if one year of MVP-caliber play after four straight years of sub-60 percent passing is worth $150 million guaranteed.

It’s a fair point, to be sure.

Allen will need to go out there and earn that contract now, and he’ll be expected to be the tide that raises all boats for the Buffalo Bills for the foreseeable future.

There is an inherent risk in every major contract handed out by NFL teams, as we’ve seen with the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson, even multiple seasons of MVP-caliber play comes with a bit of a hesitance to just pay up.

The Bills are banking on Allen’s MVP-level play being here to stay, and there’s nothing wrong with them assuming that. It will be fascinating to see in 2021 whether or not Allen is capable of keeping that up.

His 2020 season was such a dramatic spike in accuracy and efficiency compared to what we’d seen from him since 2016 in his breakout season at Wyoming. It’s understandable that his success in 2020 might be met with some skepticism, but the Buffalo Bills are obviously convinced that Allen has taken a permanent leap and will even continue to improve.