The 2022 NFL Draft quarterback class is shaping up to be one that waits for the riser. There are a couple that are dominating the early draft conversation, like Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler and North Carolina’s Sam Howell, but right now, it doesn’t measure up to the 2021 group that featured four incredible arm talents in Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Zach Wilson. Obviously, that could all change in the next 10 months, but time will tell.
One of those potential risers in the 2022 NFL Draft is a smaller school quarterback, Nevada signal-caller Carson Strong. Strong will be entering his third season under center for the Wolfpack in 2021. He also came in at number 19 on the early NFL Mocks 2022 NFL Draft big board.
In his first season as a starter, Strong started 10 games, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,335 yards, 6.2 yards per attempt, and just 11 touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Despite a season unlike any other in 2020, Strong took a big leap for Nevada. He raised his completion percentage to 70.1 percent, and his YPA jumped up to 8.1. Strong threw for 2,858 yards, and threw 27 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Those numbers vaulted Strong to the All-Mountain West first team as well as the offensive player of the year. He was also on the Maxwell watch list.
So, can Carson Strong be the riser in the 2022 NFL Draft class?
It’s certainly possible, and would be this writer’s favorite to do so. His tools are very good and he’s budding with potential. But how does he stack up right now? Let’s dive in and look at the traits and the 2021 outlook for Carson Strong.
Strengths of Strong’s game
The first thing that jumps out with Strong is what happens pre-snap. Strong has a good grip on the offense, and his ability to diagnose what the defense has planned pre-snap and make adjustments at the line of scrimmage is impressive. He can identify players coming on the blitz and makes good decisions and changes to adjust.
Strong is also very good in the quick passing game. His rhythm is excellent, and the timing he has with receivers, along with the timing in his drop back and delivery, makes everything look smooth. Strong’s placement of the football is very good in that area as well, always giving his receivers ample opportunity to capitalize on yardage after the catch.
Arm strength is next on the list and is something that jumps out almost immediately. He has the strength to push the football outside the hashes and deep down the field. Making throws in tight windows won’t be a problem with the velocity Strong puts on the football. When Strong hits the deep ball, his motion looks near-effortless and he does generate plenty of power with his lower half.
There are a few other traits that stand out after initial viewings. Strong clearly has the confidence to attack deep whenever given the chance, and he does show some poise standing in when a hit is coming, along with quickly finding check downs under pressure. He does a good job maneuvering the pocket and scanning downfield, and will reset his feet after moving around to keep throws on target. Despite some limited mobility, Strong can make accurate, strong throws on the run and the movement doesn’t take away much from the velocity of the football. His accuracy really shines on back shoulder throws.
Let’s all not forget about how turnover-averse Strong was in 2020. He does challenge windows but he isn’t overly irresponsible with the football.
Weaknesses in Strong’s game
While the strengths do outweigh the weaknesses, there are some to be cognizant of heading into the 2021 season.
The first of those is the variance with deep accuracy. As well as Strong can spin the deep ball, there are often some accuracy and placement issues. Under-throws do come up on tape with vertical routes, and there are some overthrows on passes up the seam in the middle of the field and deep routes outside the hashes.
This issue can be resolved with a more consistent trajectory. The overthrows come with not enough touch on the football, and the under-throws come with too much air underneath the ball. If Strong becomes more consistent in that area, and the deep ball is more accurate across the board, look out.
Anticipation is something else that’s noticeable on tape. It hasn’t gotten him into too much trouble, but Strong can definitely improve with getting the ball out quicker when his receivers are getting into and out of their breaks. Too often Strong waits for his receivers to exit said break before letting it go, and the heightened speed at the next level will warrant more anticipatory skills.
One other thing to watch with Strong is how he handles pressure in the “A” gap. Pressure that comes quickly there forces Strong to bail out of the pocket, and with a lack of mobility, it’s tougher to get back on track with the play.
Strong’s 2022 NFL Draft Outlook
Carson Strong stacks up very well with the other quarterbacks in the 2022 NFL Draft as we continue to traverse through summer scouting. The biggest thing to note is the jump he took from 2019 to 2020, and with an offseason that looks a little more normal, Strong could make a major leap in the 2021 season.
The small school stigma is not likely to go away, and competition level is always taken into account with draft prospects. However, Strong gets an a real nice opportunity this fall to take on California and Kansas State, and with big games, he could find himself in the national spotlight sooner than later.
If we see some growth from Strong in terms of his more consistent trajectory deep down the field and anticipation skills, the latter of which could show itself considering Strong’s high IQ and command of the offense, he could easily play his way into first round conversation.
The potential is also there for Carson Strong to reach “QB1” status in the 2022 NFL Draft class, which may seem like a controversial statement. However, the talent is undeniable, and in class just waiting for the breakout star, there’s no reason the Nevada signal-caller can’t make it happen.