Since the report came out that the Atlanta Falcons were planning on trading Julio Jones, many have pondered why they took former Florida tight end Kyle Pitts over Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields or Alabama quarterback Mac Jones with the fourth overall pick.
Many believe that if the team’s plan was to trade Jones from the beginning of the offseason, it would have made more sense to take a potential franchise quarterback in Fields or Jones to eventually replace 36-year-old Matt Ryan than take the best player available who was Kyle Pitts.
When Pitts was selected by Atlanta many assumed that new general manager Terry Fontenot was going to try to win now with this current roster based on a dominant passing offense. But the direction of the Falcons appears to be in question now that they have traded away seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones.
However, this is why taking Kyle Pitts was the right call for the Atlanta Falcons in the first round of this past draft.
Julio Jones Trade Breakdown
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport broke the news that the Atlanta Falcons will be trading Julio Jones to the Tennesee Titans. When news of a deal officially broke Rapoport reported that the Titans would be giving up “at least a second-round pick”. It was later reported that the full terms of the deal would be Jones and a 2023 sixth-round pick going to the Tennesee Titans for a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round pick.
When the smoke cleared Rapoport reported that the Titans were the only team willing to give up a package of draft picks involving a second-round pick without conditions. He also reported that the Falcons wanted to get a deal done by the beginning of their training camp which begins June 8th. That was to ensure there were no holdouts or fines for Jones who requested a trade from the beginning of the offseason and was patient and respectable about it. By doing this the Falcons wanted to make sure everyone left on good terms and there was no bad blood.
Since Atlanta waited until after June 1st to trade Jones, they did not have to take on a massive dead cap hit of $23.25 million for trading Jones. The Falcons only took on a $7.75 million cap hit by trading Jones. While the Titans took on the $15.3 million that Jones is guaranteed in 2021 and the rest of his current deal. Atlanta needed that $15.3 million in cap space to sign their rookie draft picks this year. Before the trade, the Falcons only had $358,694 in available cap space according to NFLPA data.
It is fair to say that this trade was a fair value for both teams looking back at other blockbuster trades including star wide receivers that occurred in recent years. Last offseason, the Buffalo Bills acquired Stefon Diggs and a 2020 seventh-round pick from the Minnesota Vikings for a 2020 first-round pick (22nd overall), 2020 sixth-round pick, and a 2021 fourth-round pick.
Also last offseason, the Arizona Cardinals stole DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans giving up a 2020 second-round pick, 2021 fourth-round pick, and running back David Johnson for the All-Pro receiver and a 2020 fourth-round pick.
In 2019, the Cleveland Browns acquire Odell Beckham Jr. and defensive end Olivier Vernon from the New York Giants for a 2019 first-round pick (17th overall), 2019 third-round pick, guard Kevin Zeitler, and former first-round pick safety Jabrill Peppers. During the 2018-19 regular season the Dallas Cowboys traded their 2019 first-round pick (27th overall) for Amari Cooper.
Considering all of those deals it is fair to say that the Titans and Falcons got fair value for Jones. At this moment this is no clear winner of the deal. The argument for the Falcons winning the deal is that the draft pick compensation they received is similar to a late first-round pick and they did that by trading away a 32-year-old wide receiver coming off an injured season.
However, the upside of Julio Jones could make the Titans the winner of the deal. If Jones returns to 100% and can bring a similar impact to the Titans as he had in Atlanta he could boost them into the Super Bowl picture and make this trade look like a steal.
They didn’t love the Quarterbacks available at #4
The rumor going into the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft was that Atlanta Falcons were going to either take tight end Kyle Pitts or a quarterback with the fourth overall pick. Taking a tight end with the fourth overall pick is controversial enough but many were enraged at the idea they would take one over a potential franchise quarterback when the Falcons knew they were going to begin a rebuild.
Those questioning the Kyle Pitts selection need to consider this possibility. What if the Atlanta Falcons didn’t value Justin Fields or Mac Jones high enough to be comfortable making one of them their franchise quarterback of the future. Going into the 2021 NFL Draft it could be argued that no two prospects were doubted more than both Fields and Jones.
The doubt around Fields was the reason why it was almost impossible to pinpoint a location for him in mock drafts and numerous scouts had a second-round grade on Jones. So what if new Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot and new head coach Arthur Smith didn’t like either quarterback enough to tie their careers with the team to their success. Just because a team is bringing in a new regime and appears to be starting a rebuild doesn’t mean they need to begin a rebuild. They may want to wait till next year to start scouting for the heir to Matt Ryan.
A great example of one of the better-run organizations, who have Super Bowl aspirations, that waited a year into their regime change to take their franchise quarterback is the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo hired general manager Brandon Beane head coach Sean McDermott in 2017. Rather than take a quarterback right away in the 2017 NFL Draft they traded down from their first-round selection and took Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White in the first round that year. Then Buffalo used the draft capital acquired in that deal to take 2020-21 MVP runner-up Josh Allen and Pro Bowl linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.
By not rushing a quarterback selection when the current Bills regime first came to the team they were able to build a foundation for their team going forward.
Tight Ends have played larger roles for offenses than in the past
The Falcons may be following the blueprint of adding foundational pieces to their team before taking their future franchise quarterback. Whoever follows Matt Ryan as the team’s starter will now have an excellent weapon in Kyle Pitts who lines up at tight end, but basically plays receiver. During the predraft process, Pitts was being hyped up to be the best tight-end prospect to come out of college since Tony Gonzalez was drafted in 1997.
A legitimate receiving threat at tight end is rare to find across the leagues as only a few teams have players at the position that are legitimate game-changers. But in recent years, star tight ends have shown that they are more than blockers and receivers over the middle and that they could actually be just as dangerous as wide receivers. The stars at the position have been rewriting record books in recent years.
If Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce did not sit out the last game of the regular season, he most likely would have become the first tight end in NFL history to finish a season as the league leader in receiving yards. A few years prior in 2018, Kelce and San Fransisco 49ers tight end George Kittle both topped Rob Gronkowski’s record for receiving yards by a tight end he set in 2011. Also, that season Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz broke the record for most catches in a single season by a tight end with 116. This past year, Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller and Travis Kelce finished third and fourth all-time in that category behind Ertz and Jason Wittens 2012 season.
There are plenty of teams around the league who have tight ends as their first or second option in the passing game. Those teams include the San Fransisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Detriot Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and now the Atlanta Falcons. Of the seven teams mentioned three of them made the playoffs last season. Five of the teams mentioned have made the playoffs in the past two seasons.
Kyle Pitts will be cheaper than any First-Round receiver and is capable of putting up the same if not better production
There are those who wonder why the Falcons didn’t take LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who was the number one consensus wide receiver, to replace Julio Jones on the outside. Many considered Chase to be a better prospect than Kyle Pitts and he would be able to fill the Jones’ role on the offense.
One thing Atlanta may have considered when choosing between these two prospects is the long-term expense of these players and who they will be paying on their roster long-term. Financially speaking it makes more sense to take a dynamic playmaker at tight end than at wide receiver as well for Atlanta.
As they enter their rebuild there aren’t many young players on their roster they believe will be a part of their future. However, the best young player on their roster that they will have to extend within the next few seasons is wide receiver Calvin Ridley.
Since Atlanta took Ridley in the first round in 2018 he has developed into a very capable number one receiver and one of the best young receivers in the league. Ridley is entering his fourth season and last year on his rookie deal before he plays on his fifth-year option worth $11.1 million. But based on current trends of star skill position players entering the fifth year of their rookie deal, Ridley may hold out for an extension before the 2022-23 season. As long as Ridley continues his current projection he should be paid as one of the top receivers in the league.
Ridley could receive a contract making around $25-$28 million per year.
Fast forward to 2025 or 2026, if the Falcons selected Chase with the fourth overall pick they could have to pay him top-tier wide receiver money as well. The Falcons would then be investing close to if not more than $60 million in salary-cap space in two wide receivers. That is a large percentage of the salary cap space considering they would have to think about paying the rest of the team. They could be in a position to pay a quarterback, offensive linemen, and a couple of defensive players around that time as well.
However, paying a tight end to a second contract is significantly cheaper than a wide receiver. According to Over the Cap, the current highest-paid tight end in the league George Kittle makes an average of $15 million per year which is $12.25 million cheaper than the highest-paid receiver per year DeAndre Hopkins. To put into perspective, the closest wide receiver salary to Kittle’s is Jarvis Landry of the Cleveland Browns. So the 49ers get the production of Kittle for $100K less than the Cleveland Browns pay for Landry.
So if Kyle Pitts were to have an amazing first 4-5 seasons with the Falcons and potentially become the highest-paid player at the position, he would likely get paid as a mid-tier number one receiver for top-3 tight end production. That price tag would be considered a steal considering the output he would have and wouldn’t take up a large percentage of salary cap space.
Even if Kyle Pitts developed into a borderline Pro Bowl player and was paid as such, he wouldn’t be making more than a solid second wide receiver for a team. For example, both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith were paid $12.5 million a year by the New England Patriots.
That is the same average salary per year as the New York Jets are paying their new wide receiver Corey Davis who has never been considered more than a second option in the passing game during his time in Tennessee.