2021 NFL Draft: Wide receiver Kadarius Toney scouting report

A record-breaking 13 wide receivers were selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft last year. This week that record could be broken once again, as most mock drafts have anywhere from six to nine pass catchers going in just the first round, with more wide receivers rising in mock drafts as we get closer to draft night. The 2021 NFL Draft looks to be a good year for teams that need a proven pass catcher and it seems likely many of these receivers will go on to have fruitful careers in the NFL.

So what if I told you there was a wide receiver who was rising in the draft rankings: One who initially looked to be a mid-Round Two pick but since his Pro Day has started cracking the first round in many mock drafts? What if I told you this wide receiver (a relatively unknown prospect before the 2020 season) had the feet of Christian McCaffery, the downfield separation abilities of Tyreek Hill and the field vision of a young Le’Veon Bell? Is that a receiver that might pique your interest?

So who is this wide receiver of destiny, this transcendent pass-catcher with maxed-out game sliders on Madden, with 100 attributes across the board, including QB accuracy? Before 2020,  Kadarius Toney had brought in just two touchdowns for the Florida Gators in three seasons. Unable to separate from the pack on the Gators depth chart, Toney entered the 2020 season with a lot of question marks. After all, he had only started playing wide receiver once he arrived in Gainesville, Florida and had dealt with a handful of injuries since starting college.

But with a chance to see meaningful snaps in 2020, combined with a competent quarterback and a lot of perseverance, Toney was able to show NFL scouts what he could do on the field. With Toney’s Pro Day now behind him, we have a better understanding of how he measures up versus the other receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft.

In this profile, we’ll review the background of this young receiver, from his time playing football in college all the way to the start of the 2020 season. We’ll review Toney’s stats from last season, doing a deep dive film analysis to pinpoint Toney’s strengths as a pass catcher and discern which shortcomings he will need to work on once in the league. Finally, we’ll review three teams that would make ideal landing spots for Toney in the 2021 NFL Draft and what role he could expect to play this season.

Click below to get started.

Background (2017-2019)

The Toney story starts in Eight Mile, Alabama, where he started as a dual-threat quarterback at Blount High School. About eight miles northwest of Mobile, Alabama, Toney thrived as both a passing and running quarterback, with 6,498 passing yards and 69 touchdowns thru two seasons. On the ground, Toney ran from 1,790 yards and 31 touchdowns in the same time period, according to his Florida Gators bio.

Despite coming out of high school as a three-star recruit, Toney fielded plenty of offers from the Southeastern Conference, including Alabama and South Carolina, but chose to go out of state and play for the Gators in Gainesville. What role he would play in college was unclear, however, as he was labeled an “athlete” during his recruitment period. Which meant athletic departments believed he had the skills and physical attributes to play several different positions on the football field….just not the one he played predominately in high school. Ranked as the 20th best “athlete” coming out of Alabama in 2017 (according to 247 Sports), it was unclear what position the Gators would have Toney play.

His first season in 2017 was marred by injuries and a lackluster quarterback/coaching pair at Florida. Despite this, he still found ways to play a variety of roles throughout eight games. Toney played as a running back, wide receiver and even took snaps as a wildcat quarterback during the season. His debut came during a spring game, the ignominiously named Orange and Blue Game, where Toney played merely a handful of snaps. Despite this, he showed off impressive play-making abilities, breaking free from defenders for big runs, leading the offense with 74-rushing yards and a passing touchdown off a play-action boot pass. Despite only practicing a handful of times with the team before the game, Toney flashed potential for a fanbase desperate for an effective offense.

The 2018 season saw even more mixed-use, playing as both a wide receiver, punt returner and wildcat quarterback in 12 games. 2019 became somewhat of a lost season for Toney, as he missed six games due to an injury. He still saw the field in seven games but with a solid corp of wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart, Toney was hard-pressed to find time in the rotation. But even in a season as bleak as 2019 Toney still found ways to shine, including two 40-plus yard receptions and a 66-yard touchdown catch. While not a productive season by any stretch of the imagination, Toney still found ways to impress during his limited snaps.

Then came the 2020 season. Click next below to read about Toney’s 2020 season, including the context that allowed him to make such a drastic leap forward in production.

Toney in 2020

Without any injuries to slow him down during the offseason, Toney got to see the field a lot more in 2020, playing in every game except the Cotton Bowl. A game which he opted out of to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. To say that Toney improved upon his previous three seasons at Florida would be an understatement: Toney blew all his previous seasons out of the water, leading the team in multiple categories, second only to tight end Kyle Pitts in total touchdowns. How did this happen?

With the accession of quarterback Kyle Trask to starting quarterback duties halfway through the 2019 season, the Gators suddenly had a legitimate passing quarterback on the field. Since 2012, most Gators quarterbacks have hovered (on average) somewhere around 2,000 passing yards per season. In 2020, Trask had 4,283 passing yards, throwing 43 touchdowns to just eight interceptions.

For some context, a good way to measure whether a team has a quality passing game is to look at average yards for the passing game versus the running game. In 2017, the Gators offense (on average) passed for 179 yards and rushed for 156 yards per game. In 2018, the split was exactly 50/50, with the pass and rushing game averaging 213 yards per game. In 2019 (the first season Trask took over starting duties), the passing game jumped to 300 yards per game while rushing yards dropped to 130 yards per game. And in 2020, the season Trask and Toney started every regular-season game together, the passing game jumped to an average of 378 yards per game while the running game averaged 131 yards per game (all stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com).

No matter how you slice it, Trask, Pitts and Toney helped usher in a new era for the Gators as a legitimate passing offense in the SEC. This, combined with Toney’s injury-free season and seniority on the depth chart, allowed him to see a massive jump in both statistical production and on-field performance. To call Toney a one-year wonder (as some have suggested) would be a bit unfair, as it’s impossible to know how well Toney would have done in his first three seasons, had he not faced injuries and an average passer lining up under center.

Toney helped the Gators get to an 8-2 regular-season record last season, leading the team in receptions (70), receiving yards (984 yards) and yards from scrimmage (1,145). In fact, his closest rival on the receiving end was tight end Kyle Pitts, who edged out Toney in touchdowns (12 touchdowns for Pitts versus 11 for Toney) and average yards per reception (17.9 for Pitts versus 14.1 for Toney). Need we remind you that Pitts is considered the best playmaking offensive pass catcher in the 2021 NFL Draft and is likely to get drafted in the top ten this April?

Regardless of who was the more important receiving option last season, it is indisputable that Toney saw an astronomical jump in stats. But it was the way the Gators used Toney that is interesting. Rather than just giving him one role to succeed in, Toney was used in a variety of ways, as both a runner, receiver and even as a passer on trick plays. Click next below for a thorough film review of Toney’s on-field performance during the 2020 season.

Film analysis

When watching Toney’s film, the first thing you notice is how unassuming he is pre-snap. At 6-foot, Toney doesn’t exactly jump off the screen. Some draft analysts have made a note of his size as a reason for concern, which feels like a nitpick if we’re all being honest. Out of the top paid wide receivers in the NFL today Toney is within two inches or less (in height) than seven of the top ten. He’s also taller than three of the top ten, including such luminaries as Tyreek Hill and Odell Beckham Jr. But that’s a whole can of worms by itself, so let’s move on.

Toney showed a lot of improvement last year and looks to be an underrated prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft. Let’s explore five wide receiver traits that Toney excels in.

Against coverage: Toney has excellent change of direction skills and can evade tackles with surprising straight-line speed. Together, these two skills show up on film, where Toney suddenly takes off when he has the ball, zigging and zagging his way around defenders. Against contact, Toney is resilient, bouncing like a pinball as he weaves his way past linebackers and safeties downfield. The clip below is a good example of how Toney can use his straight-line speed and deceptive feet to frustrate downfield defenders. Watch as he streaks past four defenders as they surround him while taking a shot to the back, only to stay balanced and scamper away.

Obviously, not every play is going to end up this successful in the NFL. But it points to a player that has a good combination of steady field vision and speed that allows him to outwit coverage. Not only that, but he also doesn’t allow contact to disrupt his forward momentum, as he can be seen absorbing a defender’s shoulder, only to push past him and keep going. Toney was able to break tackles multiple times during the 2020 season and keep going for big gains.

Timing: When the ball is in the air, Toney shows above-average ball tracking skills on vertical and over-the-shoulder throws. He can make catches outside his frame and extend his arms without losing speed or his footing. At the catch point, Toney is able to get his arms up and out against aggressive defenders. Below is a clip from this year’s Senior Bowl drills which shows Toney timing on a variety of passes. The first clip is the best one by far, as it shows Toney beating out man coverage on a 40-yard, over-the-shoulder completion. He extends his arms at the perfect moment, sidestepping tight coverage for an endzone catch. Toney pushing off at the 20-yard line is obviously not ideal, but he recovers fantastically after nearly falling over after the contact.

On crossing routes Toney has a harder time, occasionally overshooting his mark and having to reach back to make the reception. That being said, Toney has shown great aptitude getting open and moderating his speed to allow successful targets 10 or more yards down the field.

Route Running: This is a double-edged sword for Toney and one of the harder traits to parse. On one hand, he has shown fantastic skills when it comes to some facets of his route running. At other times he looks incredibly raw, especially for a guy projected so early in the 2021 NFL Draft. The good part of Toney’s route-running is his ability to get open: Time and again in 2020, Toney was able to take off on underneath defenders, using his second gear speed and change of direction to confound zone defenders. At the same time, Toney can at times take too long to enter his route, spending the first few seconds trying to manipulate press defenders. As PFF analyst Sam Monson said when reviewing Toney: “OK, sometimes I just need you to run the route though”.

This is relevant based on who drafts Toney in the 2021 NFL Draft: An average offensive line won’t be able to buy that amount of time on passing plays. Making Toney’s ability to get open a moot point if his quarterback is getting pressured by the time he is open. The positive traits he shows when running his routes prove there is a quality receiver lurking beneath the surface. But other analyst’s complaints about his route running seem to be warranted, at least to some extent.

Speed: One of the best traits Toney brings to the field, hands down. His straight-line speed is excellent, running a 4.39-second 40-yard dash during his Pro Day. On film, he showed time and again an ability to create separation against zone and man defenses, so long as he was able to get behind them. Has multiple different speeds and can lull defenders into a false sense of security. One of the best receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft when it comes to yards after the catch, per Austin Gayle at PFF.

As a rusher: The Gators would occasionally use Toney on design run plays, usually on jet sweep passes. While not a huge part of his on-field production (never rushed with the ball more than three times a game in 2020), it is important for scouts to factor this into his evaluation. As more and more NFL teams adopt motion pre-snap, Toney has plenty of experience to bring an NFL offense. He shows patience with the ball in his hand and is able to avoid contact long enough to find an open run lane. Toney also showed a propensity to break tackles while at Florida, as the data below indicates:

There were plenty of times on film where Toney was not an effective runner, including three games in 2020 where he actually finished with negative rushing yards (per Toney’s Sports-Reference game logs). Toney seems to get a lot of attention for the jet sweep and design carry plays while he was at Florida. Probably because when they work, they work really well, giving Toney a bit of that “home run” potential whenever the ball is in his hands. Against Mississipi last season, Toney rushed for 55 yards on two attempts while taking the ball upfield 56 yards on three attempts against LSU.

Conclusion: In the 2021 NFL Draft, it was hard to find a slot receiver who could bend and change direction as well as Toney did, which will give him a distinct advantage against other pass catchers. The latter half of the first round looks to have plenty of slot receivers getting drafted, at least according to most media Big Boards. Toney definitely is a receiver who can win at all levels of the field as a receiver and has the skills NFL teams will be looking for. It’s possible one team will fall in love with Toney’s potential and draft him in the first round. Especially when you consider the teams drafting late in the first round won’t necessarily need Toney to carry an offense in Year One. If his injury history isn’t liable to be an issue going forward, one of the 32-NFL franchises will draft him early.

Ideal draft destinations

It should be clear by now that Toney has a lot of upsides and will have a lot to offer come draft night. Since this year’s draft class is deep in wide receiver talent there is a good chance he falls to the second round. That being said, Toney has a lot of skills and techniques that NFL coaches will be partial to. It’s possible that one of the 32 NFL front offices might be so taken with Toney’s skillset that they draft him in the first round over more accomplished receivers.

No matter where Toney lands, he has a good chance to succeed once in the NFL. But there are always going to better spots than others for a prospect to land. Listed below are three teams that Toney should be crossing his fingers for, hoping they write his name on the draft card on April 29, 2021.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns showed in 2020 that they have the talent to make the playoffs. But in an AFC North division stacked with talent, the Browns need to keep up with the opposition if it plans on being competitive in 2021. Odell Beckham Jr. missed 29 games in the last four seasons, including most of the 2020 season, so depending on him as a number one receiver is dicey heading forward. And in 2020, there wasn’t a single receiver that caught more than five passing touchdowns. Pretty disappointing for a quarterback considered one of the best statistical passers in college history.

Toney would bring some fresh blood into the receiver room and give Baker Mayfield a multi-use playmaker in the passing game. Mayfield’s rookie contract will be up in a few years and the Browns need to give him more offensive tools to see if he is the quarterback of the future for the Browns. The 2021 season will be essential for the Browns future, as it will serve as a plebiscite on whether Mayfield gets a huge contract extension or is gone after 2022.

Green Bay Packers

With the offseason drama surrounding Aaron Rodgers and his future with the Green Bay Packers, one thing seems to track universally: The front office messed up drafting a QB in the first round last year. Last season’s MVP looks far from being washed up in the NFL, taking the Packers to an NFC Championship for the second year in a row. He threw 48 touchdowns during the 2020 season (best in the NFL) and looked poised to take the team to Super Bowl LV before losing by less than a touchdown to the team that would go on to win the Lombardi Trophy.

Last year, most draft analysts thought the Packers would bring in an offensive playmaker with their first-rounder. Preferably a wide receiver who could assist Rodgers with the vertical passing game. Packers wide receiver Davante Adams caught 43 percent of the team’s passing touchdowns in 2020: That’s a lot of expectation hanging on the back of just one player, as talented as he is. Adams is also a free agent after 2021 and has a history of injuries, missing games in all but two of his seven seasons in the league. Even if the Packers extend Adams in 2021 it would benefit the entire offense if another dynamic pass-catcher was drafted in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Toney would provide some versatility for the Packers’ offense, as he can be utilized in the passing or run game and has plenty of experience on trick plays. Spicing up the Packers’ offense would certainly convince Rodgers to stick around for the remainder of his career, a point of contention this offseason. Tampa Tom showed what a Hall of Fame quarterback can do when he moves on and prioritizes winning championships over “playing their entire career in one city”. The Packers will need to get this man weapons in the 2021 NFL Draft if they hope to see a Super Bowl.

Rodgers is one of the most technically advanced quarterbacks in NFL history. Meanwhile, the Packers front office has appeared stagnant at times during his career, refusing to spend big money in free agency or draft offensive playmakers early. Toney could help expand an already championship-caliber offensive program in Green Bay and diversify the playbook with his unique on-field strengths.

Philadelphia Eagles

Out of the three teams listed, the Philadelphia Eagles might be the best long-term destination for Toney in the 2021 NFL Draft. This may seem farfetched but his style of play would gel incredibly well with quarterback Jalen Hurts, who wins as a dual-threat playmaker, liable to take off if an avenue is open to him. Having a receiver like Toney who succeeds in motion and on jet sweep passes would give defenses whiplash, wondering which player to track at the snap.

Philadelphia of course has its own problems: Namely, an offseason that has exposed serious questions about its front office decision-making. And let’s not even go into their refusal to commit to Hurts as the starter this season after trading their former $128 million franchise quarterback for pocket change and a loose cigarette. Maybe the quarterbacks can play rock, paper, scissors for it? In the meantime, if Hurts can prove he is THE quarterback to lead this team, Toney will have plenty of avenues to succeed in a Hurts-centric offense past 2021.

The 2021 NFL Draft will provide Toney plenty of avenues to succeed in the pros, so long as he can continue to build upon last seasons progress. If Toney finds himself in a system that plays to his strengths there is no telling how far he could go in the NFL. Many draft analysts are under-selling Toney as a prospect, including a Pro Football Network profile that doubted whether “…he’ll ever be anything more than a very productive No. 3 wideout in the NFL”.

Toney’s injury history and one season of production can make him an easy prospect to hedge your bets on, that much is clear from mainstream sports analysts. But all his numbers and film indicate this is a receiver who has barely scratched the surface of his potential. Toney has a high ceiling in the NFL, even if it takes a season or two to be realized.

For a smart team that prioritizes long-term roster construction over winning-now, Toney is everything you are looking for in the 2021 NFL Draft. Pair this man with a competent quarterback in the NFL and there is a better than average chance he sees a multi-million dollar contract after his rookie deal. As Naruto said to Sasuke: Believe it!