2021 NFL Draft: Wide receiver Kadarius Toney scouting report

Film analysis

When watching Toney’s film, the first thing you notice is how unassuming he is pre-snap. At 6-foot, Toney doesn’t exactly jump off the screen. Some draft analysts have made a note of his size as a reason for concern, which feels like a nitpick if we’re all being honest. Out of the top paid wide receivers in the NFL today Toney is within two inches or less (in height) than seven of the top ten. He’s also taller than three of the top ten, including such luminaries as Tyreek Hill and Odell Beckham Jr. But that’s a whole can of worms by itself, so let’s move on.

Toney showed a lot of improvement last year and looks to be an underrated prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft. Let’s explore five wide receiver traits that Toney excels in.

Against coverage: Toney has excellent change of direction skills and can evade tackles with surprising straight-line speed. Together, these two skills show up on film, where Toney suddenly takes off when he has the ball, zigging and zagging his way around defenders. Against contact, Toney is resilient, bouncing like a pinball as he weaves his way past linebackers and safeties downfield. The clip below is a good example of how Toney can use his straight-line speed and deceptive feet to frustrate downfield defenders. Watch as he streaks past four defenders as they surround him while taking a shot to the back, only to stay balanced and scamper away.

Obviously, not every play is going to end up this successful in the NFL. But it points to a player that has a good combination of steady field vision and speed that allows him to outwit coverage. Not only that, but he also doesn’t allow contact to disrupt his forward momentum, as he can be seen absorbing a defender’s shoulder, only to push past him and keep going. Toney was able to break tackles multiple times during the 2020 season and keep going for big gains.

Timing: When the ball is in the air, Toney shows above-average ball tracking skills on vertical and over-the-shoulder throws. He can make catches outside his frame and extend his arms without losing speed or his footing. At the catch point, Toney is able to get his arms up and out against aggressive defenders. Below is a clip from this year’s Senior Bowl drills which shows Toney timing on a variety of passes. The first clip is the best one by far, as it shows Toney beating out man coverage on a 40-yard, over-the-shoulder completion. He extends his arms at the perfect moment, sidestepping tight coverage for an endzone catch. Toney pushing off at the 20-yard line is obviously not ideal, but he recovers fantastically after nearly falling over after the contact.

On crossing routes Toney has a harder time, occasionally overshooting his mark and having to reach back to make the reception. That being said, Toney has shown great aptitude getting open and moderating his speed to allow successful targets 10 or more yards down the field.

Route Running: This is a double-edged sword for Toney and one of the harder traits to parse. On one hand, he has shown fantastic skills when it comes to some facets of his route running. At other times he looks incredibly raw, especially for a guy projected so early in the 2021 NFL Draft. The good part of Toney’s route-running is his ability to get open: Time and again in 2020, Toney was able to take off on underneath defenders, using his second gear speed and change of direction to confound zone defenders. At the same time, Toney can at times take too long to enter his route, spending the first few seconds trying to manipulate press defenders. As PFF analyst Sam Monson said when reviewing Toney: “OK, sometimes I just need you to run the route though”.

This is relevant based on who drafts Toney in the 2021 NFL Draft: An average offensive line won’t be able to buy that amount of time on passing plays. Making Toney’s ability to get open a moot point if his quarterback is getting pressured by the time he is open. The positive traits he shows when running his routes prove there is a quality receiver lurking beneath the surface. But other analyst’s complaints about his route running seem to be warranted, at least to some extent.

Speed: One of the best traits Toney brings to the field, hands down. His straight-line speed is excellent, running a 4.39-second 40-yard dash during his Pro Day. On film, he showed time and again an ability to create separation against zone and man defenses, so long as he was able to get behind them. Has multiple different speeds and can lull defenders into a false sense of security. One of the best receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft when it comes to yards after the catch, per Austin Gayle at PFF.

As a rusher: The Gators would occasionally use Toney on design run plays, usually on jet sweep passes. While not a huge part of his on-field production (never rushed with the ball more than three times a game in 2020), it is important for scouts to factor this into his evaluation. As more and more NFL teams adopt motion pre-snap, Toney has plenty of experience to bring an NFL offense. He shows patience with the ball in his hand and is able to avoid contact long enough to find an open run lane. Toney also showed a propensity to break tackles while at Florida, as the data below indicates:

There were plenty of times on film where Toney was not an effective runner, including three games in 2020 where he actually finished with negative rushing yards (per Toney’s Sports-Reference game logs). Toney seems to get a lot of attention for the jet sweep and design carry plays while he was at Florida. Probably because when they work, they work really well, giving Toney a bit of that “home run” potential whenever the ball is in his hands. Against Mississipi last season, Toney rushed for 55 yards on two attempts while taking the ball upfield 56 yards on three attempts against LSU.

Conclusion: In the 2021 NFL Draft, it was hard to find a slot receiver who could bend and change direction as well as Toney did, which will give him a distinct advantage against other pass catchers. The latter half of the first round looks to have plenty of slot receivers getting drafted, at least according to most media Big Boards. Toney definitely is a receiver who can win at all levels of the field as a receiver and has the skills NFL teams will be looking for. It’s possible one team will fall in love with Toney’s potential and draft him in the first round. Especially when you consider the teams drafting late in the first round won’t necessarily need Toney to carry an offense in Year One. If his injury history isn’t liable to be an issue going forward, one of the 32-NFL franchises will draft him early.