2021 NFL Draft: Pro Day questions for top five quarterbacks

Top question: How much weight should be given to a one-year quarterback’s performance at an FCS powerhouse?

Pro Day: March 12, 2021

Like Wilson at BYU, Trey Lance is another unconventional quarterback drawing interest in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lance was not a top name in recruiting circles outside of Minnesota in 2017. Playing at Marshall High School (one of the top football programs at the high school level), the team typically used a run-heavy offense. They usually had such big leads by the second half of most games, Lance was never able to accrue the stats that college recruiters look for, according to Yahoo! Sports.

But Lance persisted and besides a few hiccups (almost committing to Minnesota as a safety), got an offer from North Dakota State University. The team is an FCS powerhouse: a program that recruits some of the most talented college athletes in the country that, for one reason or another, FBS schools pass by. It’s the same school that produced Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz and has created one of the best football programs in the entire country. Since 2010, NDSU has won eight of the last nine Division-1 Championship Games and has finished the season ranked first in the FCS rankings an equal amount of times.

By 2019, the sophomore was ready to be the full-time starter. Lance started all 16-games that year and had one of the most successful seasons in all of FCS history. The team went undefeated and won another FCS Championship, beating opponents by double digits in all but two games that whole season. He threw 28 touchdowns to zero interceptions, along with another 14 rushing touchdowns, according to Lance’s official NDSU bio.

After a near-perfect season in 2019, the wind was at Lance’s back. He had put up one of the most spectacular seasons in recent memory for a first-year starting quarterback. Once an unknown in draft circles, now NFL analysts and media were singing Lance’s praises, declaring him to be one of the best quarterbacks eligible in 2021. With nowhere to go but down after a perfect season, Lance declared for the 2021 NFL Draft, hoping to cash in on a stellar sophomore season.

But here is the problem presented to any NFL scout looking into Lance: how do you judge a seemingly flawless player against clearly weaker competition in the FCS? NDSU has effectively run Division-1 football since 2010, creating one of the most popular and effective programs in the entire country, with a strong coaching staff and a tradition of winning. Hypothetically, how would Lance stack up against a quality FBS defense like Wisconsin or Clemson, two of the best defenses in 2020?

How do Lance’s college exploits compare against the likes of Alabama quarterback Mac Jones: a quarterback who succeeded in part due to the fact he was playing with some of the most talented football players in the country? Should Jones be given more credit for playing against tougher competition or should Lance for the objective quality of his play? You can see why having a Combine, where Lance would be out of his comfort zone, working with unfamiliar staff and undergoing standardized drills would be a valuable resource to NFL scouts.

Unfortunately for Lance, it’s impossible to argue against hypotheticals about how he’d have held up against stronger competition. But there are ways to reassure a potentially nervous front-office about his credentials. During his drills, he should focus on showing scouts he has the technical aspects of the game down. That means proper footwork, good release, ball placement, all the tangible and intangibles NFL scouts are looking for. After missing all but one game in 2020 (due to cancellations), many NFL general managers will want assurances Lance’s quarterback skills haven’t atrophied.

Next, he’ll need to show he has a solid understanding of the technical aspects of football. This means when scouts sit down with him, he should be prepared to explain his entire process. That goes for reading coverages, communicating plays at the line of scrimmage, making last-second adjustments, effectively using motion, faking out safeties with his eyes and a dozen or so other skills a competent quarterback needs to have in the NFL.

Lance looked really impressive in 2019. But it’ll be a tough sell to NFL owners and general managers to draft a quarterback with one FCS season in the books, no matter how flawless it was. Lance will need to show scouts at his Pro Day that what they saw in 2019 was not a case of lucky circumstances or great scheming but skill and technique.

Lance has all the raw elements an offensive coach could want in 2021: big arm, ability to make plays with his feet, a strong runner past the line of scrimmage and a tough competitor. So long as Lance can show solid fundamentals and an acknowledgment of the flaws in his game, he should expect to be a first-rounder in the 2021 NFL Draft.