Deshaun Watson is NFL’s most overrated quarterback

Deshaun Watson is perhaps the most sought-after player of the offseason, but what his suitors don’t realize, is he’s the NFL’s most overrated quarterback.

• 2020 NFL passing yards leader (4,823 yards)
• Career passer rating of 104.5, ranking second all-time among quarterbacks
• The fastest player in NFL history to 100 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns
• The fifth-fastest player to reach 100 passing touchdowns in NFL history
• Most touchdown passes in a single season in Texans history
• One of four quarterbacks in NFL history to finish a season with more than 4,500 passing yards, more than 30 touchdowns, fewer than 10 interceptions and an average of more than 8.5 yards per pass.

Above are just a few statistics and records set by perhaps the most sought-after player of the offseason, Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson has made it clear he no longer wants to be a part of the Texans’ organization, leading to several teams being in pursuit of the quarterback who many consider to be one of the best in the NFL. When you look at the above statistics and records set by Watson throughout his NFL career, he definitely looks like one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.

Despite all those records, Watson is actually the NFL’s most overrated quarterback.

I know, this isn’t a popular opinion. Most NFL teams, players and fans probably disagree with this. I’m a numbers guy, and the numbers above easily make Watson’s case as one of the best. There’s a reason teams like the Jets, Panthers, 49ers and more have been linked to trying to acquire the young quarterback. However, there are several other sets of numbers that paint a different picture around Watson, showing why he’s the NFL’s most overrated quarterback.

Someone who agrees with Watson being overrated is Doug Gottlieb of Fox Sports Radio. Here’s what Gottlieb had to say about Watson:

"“Deshaun Watson has almost the same exact record with the Houston Texans since he got there as opposed to the four years before he got there, including 1-2 in the playoffs before he got there, and 1-2 in the playoffs since he’s been there… Deshaun Watson is viewed by many people as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and there is no record to point that out. If you look at Aaron Rodgers, every year he’s healthy in the NFL with the exception of the year that Mike McCarthy got fired, his teams won 10 games. Same thing with Tom Brady, same thing with Drew Brees, same thing with ALL these guys… Deshaun Watson somehow gets a pass, when no other quarterback gets a pass for their win/loss record.”"

Gottlieb’s first point is that Watson has the same record with the Houston Texans since he got there as they did the four years leading up to him arriving. In the four years before Watson arrived, the Houston Texans were 29-35 and 1-2 in the playoffs. In the four years since Watson has been Houston, the Texans are 29-35 and 1-2 in the playoffs.

With that being said, Watson only started six games during his rookie season. That doesn’t give him a pass though. Watson’s career record as a starting quarterback is 28-25. If you do the math, he’s only won 52.8% of the games he’s started. To me, that number says NFL’s most overrated quarterback rather than one of the NFL’s best.

The best quarterbacks win, no matter what!

It’s easy to think Watson is at a disadvantage because his defense has been one of the worst in the NFL. This past season, the Texans gave up the third-most total yards and the sixth-most points per game. Watson had a terrible defense during his 4-12 season, but that’s not a good enough excuse for someone considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

2018 was the year Patrick Mahomes won MVP. He led the Chiefs to a record of 12-4 and won a playoff game. This was the same year the Chiefs’ defense gave up the second-most total yards and ninth-most points per game. To throw in another example, in 2019, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks to a record of 11-5 and won a playoff game with a defense that allowed the seventh-most total yards and the 10th-most points per game.

Both Mahomes and Wilson are widely considered two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. That’s because they consistently elevate their teams, even if their defense isn’t good. Winning is what they do. Winning is why they’re considered the best. Based on his winning percentage, it’s clear Watson hasn’t been able to elevate the Houston Texans. He hasn’t elevated this franchise in any way since arriving. Somehow, he’s still talked about as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, when he’s actually the NFL’s most overrated quarterback.

Stats are stats, but wins are wins

• One of four quarterbacks in NFL history to finish a season with more than 4,500 passing yards, more than 30 touchdowns, fewer than 10 interceptions and an average of more than 8.5 yards per pass.

Let’s take a closer look at this stat for a minute. Watson is one of only four quarterbacks to ever accomplish this. The other three quarterbacks are Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Watson is the only quarterback of these four to post a losing record. Manning led the 2004 Colts to a record of 12-4, Rodgers led the 2011 Packers to a record of 15-1 and Matt Ryan led the 2016 Falcons to a record of 11-5. Outside of Watson, Ryan won the least amount of games, but he still won seven more that season than Watson did in 2020.

• Career passer rating of 104.5, ranking second all-time among quarterbacks

Now let’s take a closer look at this stat. Watson ranks second all-time in passer rating. That rating is better than Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, just to name a few. Let’s compare Watson to Brady. Brady’s career passer rating is 97.3. If we go just based on this stat, Watson is the better quarterback. We all know that’s not true.

Brady’s career record is 230-69, which is a winning percentage of 76.9%. The worst record Brady has posted in any full season he has played, is 9-7. Watson’s career passer rating of 104.5 hasn’t translated anywhere near that kind of success, as made clear by his 4-12 record. This shows that there’s a big difference between posting good stats and posting good stats while winning. The NFL’s most overrated quarterback, Deshaun Watson, is a stat stuffer, not a winner. Brady, who is the G.O.A.T., does both. Watson is nowhere near his level.

One more quarterback comparison

I won’t drag this out too much longer, but I would like to make one more comparison. Let’s compare Watson to Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. If you ask most people who aren’t Cowboys fans, and even many who are, Prescott is not considered one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Not very many people think he’s worth the price he’s asking for on his new contract. However, when you compare the winning percentages between the two quarterbacks, Prescott is actually better than Watson.

Prescott’s record as a starting quarterback is 42-27, which comes out to a winning percentage of 60.8%. Prescott’s winning percentage is 8.0% higher than Watson’s. They both have the same record in the playoffs of 1-2, yet Watson gets to be considered one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and Prescott gets nothing but hate for not being good enough to earn a massive contract extension. How does that make sense? This is just another stat showing why Watson is the NFL’s most overrated quarterback.

In addition to that, Watson is being praised for being the NFL’s passing yards leader in 2020, throwing for 4,823 yards. Before Prescott went down with an injury, he had thrown for 1856 yards. In the five games he played in, he averaged 371.2 yards per game. If Prescott had kept that pace throughout a 16 game season, he would have thrown for a whopping 5,939 yards. Few were praising Prescott for his accomplishments before he went down, while many were hating on the Dallas quarterback with comments such as, “It’s easy to throw for so many yards when your team is losing all the time.”

Does this not apply to Watson as well? The only reason he led the NFL in passing yards is that his team was losing all the time. Why do we praise Watson for throwing for so many yards and having a terrible team, but we hate Prescott for being better than Watson in stats and wins? It doesn’t make sense.

Deshaun Watson is the NFL’s most overrated quarterback

I understand why teams are trying to trade for Deshaun Watson. His individual numbers are great. He’s set all kinds of NFL records in his short NFL career.

When it comes down to it though, teams looking at Deshaun Watson should take a deeper dive into his numbers. Would they really be getting a quarterback who can lead them to the Super Bowl, or are they getting a quarterback who has failed to elevate his current franchise? I say it’s the latter. I’ve said it plenty of times, and I’ll say it again. Watson is the NFL’s most overrated quarterback.