2021 NFL Draft: BYU quarterback Zach Wilson scouting report

Heading into the 2020 college football season, most draft analysts would’ve been hard-pressed to place Zach Wilson on their quarterback rankings for the 2021 NFL Draft. There was no way to be sure that Wilson would even enter the 2021 NFL Draft, as the Utah native had only played 18 games at BYU and looked to be a mixed bag when it came to quarterback skills.

With a severely truncated college football season (thanks to COVID-19) in 2020 and a seemingly well-defined quarterback class entering the season, most NFL fans could be forgiven for not knowing the name of the FBS-Independent quarterback out of Provo, Utah.

Just as the 2019 season saw the rise of Joe Burrow from a relative unknown to the first-overall pick, Wilson was 2020’s biggest quarterback surprise. After an impressive junior season, Wilson has skyrocketed the quarterback depth-chart of the 2021 NFL Draft. Some have even suggested that Wilson could be the second quarterback off the board this year, competing with the likes of Justin Fields for that coveted top-five draft spot.

Wilson is a bit of a football enigma. At 6-foot-3, 209 pounds, Wilson is shorter than most of the quarterback front-runners this year and is slender for a dual-threat quarterback. His stylish blonde hair and formal manner of speaking make Wilson look more like a Congressional-aide than a Gridiron warrior.

He can shout out coverages on the line of scrimmage, give orders to 300-pound linemen and then charm reporters with a humble disposition after the game, quick to cast a spotlight on his talented teammates. He attends Brigham Young University, a private religious college owned by the Church of Latter-Day Saints, but is self-admittedly not very religious.

How did a quarterback who threw less than 12 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons rise so quickly in the 2021 NFL Draft rankings? What factors were responsible for Wilson’s success in 2020? Is Wilson really this year’s Burrow or was the abridged 2020 season merely a flash in the pan? Does Wilson have what it takes to lead an NFL franchise?

In this article, we’ll examine the factors that helped Wilson shoot up the draft rankings this offseason. We’ll explore what skills Wilson showed on the field as a quarterback, both during his first two seasons and what improved in 2020.

We will also shine a spotlight on the things Wilson does well on film and exhibit the things Wilson still needs to work on. And finally, we’ll explore three NFL teams that could be looking to draft Wilson in the first round and what those teams will be looking for at this year’s 2021 NFL Combine interviews.

Zach Wilson: Background

To understand how Wilson improved in 2020, we must look back at how Wilson started off his football career at BYU. While he was eventually highly sought after in high school, Wilson had a hard time finding recruiters to take him seriously before his senior season. Wilson had to attend a Weber State open camp just to get noticed, according to an ESPN article.

He finished his final season in high school with 2,986 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns, while also making the honor roll at Corner Canyon High School in Utah.

Eventually, Wilson would end up committing to Boise State.  But circumstances at BYU, which originally appeared set at quarterback that offseason, changed at the 11th-hour. With a chance to play close to home and for a school that has a legacy of producing excellent quarterbacks, Wilson eventually committed to BYU. Despite growing up as the son of a Utah Utes defensive lineman, Wilson would ultimately join his father’s interstate rival.

During Wilson’s 2018 freshman season at BYU, he got the chance to start in seven of nine games played, becoming the youngest freshman starting quarterback in school history. He finished the 2018 season with a respectable record, passing for 1,578 yards, with 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

In the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Wilson went a perfect 18-for-18 and 317 passing yards against Western Michigan, earning the game MVP. Not a bad list of accomplishments for a freshman quarterback. The stage was set for Wilson to show what he could do as the full-time starter in 2019.

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His sophomore season, however, did not go according to plan. Wilson had to undergo surgery for a torn labrum before the season even started. He would end up missing the entire month of October due to a hand injury. Wilson’s completion percentage dropped to 62 percent by the end of the season, earning himself just 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions.

The team finished the 2019 season 7-6, putting into doubt how much of his freshman season was sustainable or just a case of faulty generalization. In any case, it was going to take more than this to get Wilson a prime spot on the 2021 NFL Draft board.

Wilson returned in 2020, fully healed from his injuries and was named the starting quarterback before Week 1 of the regular season. Wilson started his junior season off well, winning the first nine games of the year before finishing 11-1.

The game logs speak for themselves in regards to Wilson’s improvement last year. His stats wildly improved across the board, a complete rehabilitation of his 2019 form. He tripled his number of passing touchdowns to 33 and reduced his number of interceptions to just three all season. Wilson also brought in 274 rushing yards and punching in 10 touchdowns with his own legs. And finally, Wilson’s season completion percentage rose to 73.5 percent, an increase of over 10-points in just one season.

Just like Burrow the year before, Wilson had given pro scouts plenty of reasons to be excited about the young man, playing in a year as uncertain and restrictive as any since the Second World War. Wilson, with his quarterback stock peaking after the 2020 season, decided to declare for the 2021 NFL Draft.

But it’s not just the stats that improved in 2020. His style of play, his presence in and outside of the pocket improved. Wilson took big risks and put up some amazing plays this past season. In the next section, we’ll explore what Wilson showed on the film, breaking down what he did well. Afterward, we’ll also explore the areas Wilson must improve if he is to be successful in the NFL.

The Good

Interested parties in the 2021 NFL Draft will be looking at film from last season, trying to extrapolate what Wilson did better this season than years before. While part of his 2019 regression can be blamed on injuries to his hand and shoulder, 2020 ended up being such a marked improvement for the BYU junior, in terms of production and form.

NFL scouts will wonder how he took his play up a notch in such an off-year and whether those improvements can be maintained long-term in the NFL. It may be tempting to explain this rise in production due to a reduced toughness of schedule: with inter-conference college football suspended due to COVID-19, Wilson faced a much weaker lineup of opponents. But this is a lazy excuse, as Wilson’s improvement in 2020 is noticeable in more than just the stat column.

For starters, Wilson improved passing outside the pocket on off-platform throws. More than anything else, this quarterback skill is what is most exciting about Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft and is a big part of why Wilson’s draft stock has risen so high. These types of skills are in high demand nowadays, as quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray have been making whole careers out of making accurate, vertical passes outside the pocket.

Part of Wilson’s appeal is his ability to throw on the run. Whether it’s after pass-rushers have circumvented the offensive line or on roll-out plays, Wilson has shown a consistent ability to get the ball out to receivers downfield with a high level of accuracy. Wilson can throw the ball at unique angles to receivers with a high level of accuracy as well.

Sidearm throws, no-look passes, curving the ball around defenders, all these are game highlight passes Wilson performed at one time or another in 2020. These types of throws should be exciting to NFL coaches and receivers alike, as they spur hope that a play is never dead so long as the quarterback has the ball.

The fact that these off-script throws traveled sizeable distances in the air with a high level of accuracy in 2020 should have NFL front offices interested in Wilson. Against zone-coverage last season, Wilson was one of the most effective quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft, a skill that is almost mandatory for the modern quarterback.

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Wilson is a dual-threat quarterback, giving his opponents another element to defend against on gameday. His elusiveness and speed will make him a zone-read threat on nearly every play, especially if he lands on an NFL team with a solid running back or two. Having a quarterback that can make plays with his legs and arm opens up all sorts of plays and offenses for coaches to use, giving them an edge against defenses with a strong front-seven.

While Wilson isn’t as fast as, say, Lamar Jackson, he has enough burst once clear of line defenders to give safeties a run for their money. And unlike Jackson, Wilson tends to avoid contact once he has firmly committed to the run, hopefully saving himself from the real nasty hits that can disrupt a professional career.

BYU used a good amount of movement prior to the snap, giving Wilson plenty of experience using motions as a way to disrupt defensive coverages. Managing motions has also become a key tool of the modern NFL quarterback and will be a skill highly prized in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Wilson’s ability to run and throw off-platform are just sideshows from the real show stopper: he is a fantastic pocket-passing quarterback as well. If general managers are looking for a quarterback who can air the ball out on vertical passes and make chunk plays, Wilson has plenty of tape doing that as well.

He throws with anticipation and has a good sense of timing when receivers will be finding space to catch the ball. Wilson’s highlight reel might be dominated by him making plays off-script but he is also a quarterback who can read coverages and anticipate a receiver getting open.

His game footage from 2020 is chock full of effective comeback and hitch throws that lead to first downs. This type of outside receiver route is clearly Wilson’s favorite and BYU coaches were sure to give him plenty of opportunities to take advantage of his accuracy and timing.

This may cause some analysts to attach the once-dreaded “system quarterback” label on Wilson. It can be concerning, especially when it’s easy to see BYU opponents noticed this tendency as well and started dropping flat defenders as the season progressed.

Fortunately for Wilson, he showed he can adjust on the fly several times in 2020, making him a quarterback who isn’t afraid to deviate from the script but isn’t foolish enough to stop what is working.

Whether it was airing the ball out to a receiver on a post route or checking the ball to an in-route, Wilson made smart throwing decisions, neither playing it too risky nor too safely. His eye movements indicate a quarterback who can move on from first-reads quickly, an invaluable skill in the NFL. His throwing mechanics are solid. While he isn’t the most technical quarterback ever seen, he has enough of the fundamentals down to make any discrepancies a non-issue.

The Bad

The most important red flag that continues to come up is Wilson’s decision-making when throwing against tight coverage. Wilson has the accuracy to throw into tight windows, no one is denying that. But on multiple occasions in 2020, Wilson threw to wide receivers who barely qualified as being open, who would then take the brunt of one or more defenders in tight coverage.

Now, receivers obviously expect to get hit (it’s football, after all), so there is a level of interpretation as to how important an NFL general manager might consider this issue. But across multiple games at BYU, Wilson threw a dozen or so passes that would make even the most nihilistic general manager wince at how battered some of BYU’s receivers were in 2020.

To his receiver’s credit, most of these passes were reigned in for a completion and watching the all-22 film does exonerate Wilson (to a degree) on several of these questionable passes. On several of these occasions, a linebacker or safety dropped down or fell back on a delayed movement, leaving a seemingly open receiver suddenly bracketed by defenders.

General managers and coaches may justify ill-timed passes from time to time. But will NFL wide receivers go that extra mile if they think their quarterback is putting them in danger? Especially when some of the situations were when BYU had a sizeable lead or was on an early-down. That is not a situation when you need to press.

Wilson will likely be asked about some of these plays at this year’s Combine. If he hopes to get drafted early in the 2021 NFL Draft, he should be prepared for these questions and have some solutions to avoid this in the future.

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The 2020 game that highlights Wilson’s flaws the most as a quarterback has to be against Coastal Carolina, the only loss for BYU all season. Both teams went into the game undefeated and it serves as a warning to NFL general managers how far Wilson still needs to go.

The breakdown goes like this: after a middling performance going into the second half, the BYU offense came out swinging in the third quarter with design plays. We’re talking screen passes, offensive line movements, multiple motions nearly every down, even two double passes in the same half. With the pressure on Wilson, he attempted to roll out several times on option plays and looked unconvincing in his execution.

After facing pressure all evening, Wilson’s mechanics and decision-making faltered. After a few late-shots (read: cheap shots) from a Coastal Carolina pass-rusher and a particularly aggressive defense, Wilson’s confidence seemed shaken, leading to more erratic decisions.

On a 3rd and 30 play, Wilson decided to carry the ball himself and attempt to lateral a defender after gaining only 10-yards. Not surprisingly it didn’t work and he took a real nasty hit on the way down…on a third-down he had little shot of converting. There were also nine minutes left and the opponents were up less than a touchdown.

On another play earlier in the game, Wilson took the ball for a run up the middle, got the first down and then decided to lead with his shoulder against a player that looked to have 50 pounds on him instead of just sliding. Dangerous decision making for a quarterback with two major injuries in the last two years, especially for a player hoping to go early in the 2021 NFL Draft.

It is easy as an analyst to judge a split-second decision that goes badly and hold it against the passer and some of these incidents do deserve a third-degree. But just as these plays show a passionate quarterback, they also show one who still needs to learn when it is better to yield and fight another down.

Next up on the Wilson red flags list are some of his mechanics when under pressure. Specifically, his tendency to rely too much on his raw arm strength to get the ball out and not going through the motions needed to maximize his throw. On plays where Wilson is passing off-platform or when the pocket breaks down, he seems to prioritize getting the ball out instead of taking the extra half-second or so to properly place his feet and wind up his throw.

Some general managers might think this is a convenient problem to have; after all, he can launch the ball 30-plus yards with just his raw arm strength on the run.

But for a quarterback that has already had to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, how much fun will it be in five to ten years to throw like that? Especially when pass-rushers hit harder and cornerbacks are much better at covering wide receivers, leaving the margin for error that much smaller. Wilson has a great arm and his strength will benefit him in the NFL. But to depend too much on it is inviting trouble for the young upstart.

Luckily, this really is a convenient problem to have for Wilson. He has shown time and again to have great mechanics in the pocket and can plant his feet effectively to maximize the throw. His ability to throw on the run and off-platform rivals the likes of Mahomes.

Fixing a few discrepancies in his game should be relatively easy for an NFL quarterbacks coach to train out of him. If he is to be drafted early in the 2021 NFL Draft, if a general manager is going to bet their careers on Wilson, he will need to show a willingness to improve the flaws in his game.

Potential Draft Destinations for Wilson

We’ve explored Wilson’s background, his path to BYU and his upside as an NFL quarterback. We’ve also cataloged the flaws he’s shown on film and explored what things he will need to change once he is drafted. Next, we’ll explore three possible destinations for Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft. We’ll explain why each one of these teams is a good fit for Wilson and reasons why these teams might be trepidatious about drafting the Utah native.

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New York Jets (second overall)

This is of course assuming the Jets trade quarterback Sam Darnold, which as of this publication is something that is only rumored to be in the works. Getting a young gunslinger like Wilson would be an incredible boon for the re-building Jets, as fresh blood in the quarterback room could change the entire culture in New York.

History shows bringing in a new quarterback with a new head coach can be advantageous for both parties. It would allow the coach to build an offense that accentuates Wilson’s strong points and give an understandably jaded fan base a new face to cheer for.

For Wilson, he’d be working under offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, brought over with Saleh when he left San Francisco. LaFleur has helped two quarterbacks make it to the Super Bowl, first in 2016 as an assistant for Atlanta and with the San Francisco 49ers as the passing game coordinator in 2019. LaFleur is a former quarterback himself and at 33-years-old would be a relatable position coach to the 21-year-old Wilson.

The biggest reason the Jets might want to pass on Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft is that with the second overall pick, they will essentially have their pick of the litter when it comes to quarterbacks this year. There are a trio of more established quarterbacks in this year’s draft class that have been more consistent for longer than Wilson has been at BYU.

If the Jets draft Wilson, they would effectively be signing up to build an entire roster around a quarterback who played one really good season against FBS Independent teams. Not exactly the toughest competition in college football. It would require the general manager and head coach to bet their careers on a one-year quarterback, nevermind whatever fallout might happen if they let go of Darnold and he ends up succeeding somewhere else.

That is a lot of risk for a duo of professionals who have worked a combined 37 years in the NFL to get to this point. If they decide to draft Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft, they will need to be sure that whatever wrinkles are in Wilson’s game can be ironed out once in the league.

Philadelphia Eagles (sixth overall)

Much like the Jets, this will depend on whether the Eagles find a trade partner for Carson Wentz before the 2021 NFL Draft. If so, the front-office in Philadelphia may consider drafting Wilson as their next franchise quarterback. This year will be the first time the Eagles have drafted in the top-five since they drafted Wentz in 2016. And despite a 4-11-1 record in 2020, a large percentage of the roster is still comprised of Super Bowl-winning veterans (at time of publication).

The Eagles have only drafted in the top-ten three times since 2000, making this year a prime time to pick up a new franchise quarterback. While the offensive line in Philadelphia has seen better days, the receiving corp is relatively young, having drafted three serviceable wide receivers in 2020. Considering the ups-and-downs (and drama) of the Wentz era in Philadelphia, this roster (combined with a new coaching staff) may respond well to a new face of the franchise.

The biggest impediment to the Eagles selecting Wilson in the 2021 NFL Draft? Just 2020 second-round quarterback Jalen Hurts. While the official party-line from the front office has been suspiciously pro-Wentz, the smart money is on Wentz being traded this offseason. Despite Hurts being a limited passer, he stepped in for a waning Wentz in 2020 and played well.

Sources told PhillyVoice that “The feeling…was that Hurts possessed superior leadership (compared to Wentz), a willingness to be coached (one source said he was in the coach’s offices so much they thought they had to get him a cot).”

Add to the equation that the Eagles brought in Brian Johnson to be their quarterback coach this offseason. Coach Johnson has a connection to Hurts going back to when the quarterback was four-years-old (Johnson was a player on the team coached by Hurts dad, according to NBC Sports). He tried to recruit Hurts in college and it’s pretty fair to assume he was brought in to develop Hurts for the team’s so-called “quarterback factory”.

It wouldn’t be impossible for Johnson to coach a quarterback like Wilson, as he does have similar quarterback skills to Hurts. But Johnson was the quarterback coach and offensive coordinator for the Florida Gators in 2020. A team that ranked as high as sixth in the AP poll last season, has gone 29-9 since Johnson joined in the staff and looks to be on the upswing in the SEC.

If the team were to use the sixth pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Wilson, they would need to be sure that Hurts isn’t a long-term starter going forward. Based on the team’s interest in developing Hurts, there are better uses to the pick than another running quarterback with question marks.

Denver Broncos (ninth overall)

The Denver Broncos have been needing a stable quarterback in the pocket since 2015. Since Peyton Manning retired after Super Bowl 50, the Broncos have had a total of ten starting quarterbacks in six years. Quarterback Drew Lock looked promising after being drafted as a second-rounder in 2019.

But 2020 saw his star come back to earth, throwing 16 touchdowns to 15 interceptions (tied for worst in the NFL with Wentz), 19 sacks and a completion rate of just 57 percent, according to Pro Football Reference. A new, exciting college quarterback could bring the team together and set the tone that the team is headed for better days.

There is a lot of upside to Wilson falling to the Broncos in the 2021 NFL Draft. Despite going 5-11 in 2020, there are a lot of players on the Broncos offense and defense that are solid playmakers just waiting for a dynamic passer to take the reigns. They have a pair of talented running backs, a first-round, first-class wide receiver in Jerry Jeudy and a defense that still sports some big names.

Add to the fact the Broncos have a lot of cap space in 2021 and it’s possible the front office could try and build a solid roster around the young quarterback and attempt to compete in 2021.

Just as before though, there are plenty of reasons to excuse the Broncos not taking a quarterback in the first round. For starters, third-year head coach Vic Fangio has gone 12-20 since taking over the position in 2019. Despite being a successful defensive coordinator before coming to Denver, the Fangio-led Broncos ranked 25th in total defense last season.

This could very well be Fangio’s last chance to turn around the Broncos fortunes before bringing in a new coach. History has shown drafting a quarterback only to replace his head coach the next season does not work so well. Just ask Darnold in New York, who will be on his third head coach in 2021 (assuming he stays with the Jets).

The front office is letting Fangio run the show one more season, so they must believe 2020 deserves a mulligan, what with all the injuries and COVID-19 restrictions.

With a new general manager replacing Jon Elway, they may be looking to avoid the same mistakes Elway made. Namely, Elway playing musical chairs with the starting quarterback position every season since Manning left. A bit of continuity at the position might be what this team has been missing all along.