Top 2021 NFL Draft questions, stock up, stock down and scouting notes for key defensive prospects
This week’s Inside the War Room takes a look at some of the top defensive prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft. We start by answering five pressing questions on this year’s top defenders. Then in the Stock Market, we discuss two Crimson Tide players who are seeing their stock fall. Finally, in Scouting Notes, we highlight a couple of small school defensive backs that show big potential.
Top Five Defensive Draft Questions
1. Player who has raised his 2021 NFL Draft stock the most this year?
This season saw Iowa defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon go from a backup to the top defensive player in the Big Ten. In 2019, Nixon only started one game for the Hawkeyes, but in limited playing time showed the potential to be a dominant force recording 5.5 sacks on the year.
Going into the 2020 season, Nixon earned a starting spot and quickly established himself as one of the top interior defensive linemen in the Big Ten registering 18 tackles and two sacks in just the first two games of the season. He finished the year off by recording 13.5 tackles for loss which led the Big Ten, and 5.5 sacks, which earned him the honor of Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
This strong season also significantly increased his 2021 NFL Draft stock from a player who wasn’t even on scout’s radar in August to a player who will likely slide into the first round in April. As a prospect, Nixon shows great athletic ability for someone 6-foot-3 and 305 pounds.
His coaches and teammates also rave about his instincts which will surely help him at the next level. One more positive thing with him is how quickly he is able to shoot gaps, which is the main reason he has produced so many plays in opponents’ backfield this year.
2. First round prospect who is the riskiest pick?
While Miami defensive end Gregory Rousseau‘s 2019 stats will surely impress people, he is not worth the top-10 grade he is receiving. Even though he was able to account for 15.5 sacks a year ago, most of these sacks came with him just beating a defender with speed or by the quarterback holding onto the ball for too long. He did not show a variety of pass-rushing moves in the film I saw and was overpowered on a consistent basis.
It is also worth noting that 2019 was his only impressive year with the Hurricane as he did not record a sack in 2018 and sat out the 2020 season. He is a liability against the run as well as he lacks the bulk and overall power to hold his ground against NFL offensive tackles. With these concerns, I would have a hard time picking him high in the first round, which some team will probably do.
3. Which small school player will be a sleeper in this year’s draft?
Speaking of productive pass rushers another player who fits that bill is Northern Iowa defensive end Elerson Smith who recorded 14 sacks in 2019. Unlike Rousseau, Smith should be a good value pick as he will likely be a day three pick.
As a prospect Smith has the length NFL scouts like coming in at 6-foot-7. He shows a nice burst off the ball as well and was able to beat his share of FCS offensive with his quick first step. The biggest question with him will be does his ability to get after the passer translate from the FCS to the NFL, and a strong Senior Bowl should help answer this question.
4. Which 2021 NFL Draft prospect did not live up to the hype going into the year?
Going into the season Florida State defensive tackle Marvin Wilson was regarded as a high first-round prospect, but with his lackadaisical performance this year, he will be lucky to hear his name called in the second round.
In 2020, he saw his on-field production drop as he only was able to record 17 tackles, two tackles for loss, and two sacks with one. He also looked far from dominant on the field as he was slow off the ball, showed average athletic ability at best, and didn’t display the power he did in previous seasons. Wilson is the type of player I would let someone else take, and instead, use my 2021 NFL Draft pick on someone I can actually count on to go hard every play.
5. Which player drafted on day three will make a significant impact in the NFL, as a rookie?
One of the more overlooked safeties in this year’s draft is Virginia Tech’s Divine Deablo. This past season Deablo became the first safety in school history to be named All-ACC after he posted 55 tackles and four picks. While he was definitely a productive defensive back in college, there are some questions on him having the skill set to play safety at the next level.
The biggest concern with his pro potential revolves around if he has the fluid hips to hold up in coverage in the secondary. Due to these concerns, he will likely slide into the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft and hopefully is picked by a team smart enough to understand how to use him. The wise way to use him would be to shift him into a nickel linebacker role. This move makes sense for Deablo as he has the size to make the transition (6-foot-3 226 pounds), tackling ability, and coverage skills to make this transition.
2021 NFL Draft prospects: Stock Up
Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa
One of the most impactful defenders in college football this year was Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins. Collins was able to affect the game in multiple ways including excelling in coverage. He had a career-high four interceptions this season, and overall showed great awareness in this area. In fact, he was the highest-graded linebacker in coverage since 2014 according to Pro Football Focus.
He displayed the ability to rush the passer as well, as he recorded four sacks. In the run game, he showed the tools teams are looking for. He shows outstanding awareness and is very rarely out of the position in his run fits. One area I would like to see him get better at is getting off blocks, as he tends to get overpowered at times and also spends too much time running around blockers instead of taking them on.
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The knock-on Horn going into the year had to do with his ball skills, as he did not have a pick in his first two years at South Carolina. Horn helped alleviate that concern this year though when he tied for the team lead with two picks despite only playing in seven games. What intrigues teams the most with Horn is his size and physical style of play.
At 6-foot-1, he is the type of corner who can excel as a press corner in a cover two scheme. He is also one of the more physical corners in the draft, as he loves to fight with receivers at the line of scrimmage and does a great job of making a receiver battle through contact to make the tough catch.
On the downside, his physical style of play can lead to him drawing his share of pass interference calls. Another concern with him is he is not the most fluid athlete, which is common to see in a bigger corner.
Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
Another big SEC corner is Georgia’s Eric Stokes who comes in at 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds. Stokes like Horn recorded his first career interception this year, and in fact, led Georgia in interceptions this year with four. He was also the only player in college football to have two interceptions returned for touchdowns. When looking at his fit at the next level, he would be a corner who could be a good fit for a team like the San Francisco 49ers. This match makes sense as the 49ers prefer bigger corners who show the ball skills Stokes possesses.
Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
Coming out of high school Jaelan Phillips was regarded as one of the best high school prospects in the nation, being named the third-best recruit in the nation by ESPN. After his stellar high school career, Phillips decided to take his talent to UCLA.
Unfortunately, things didn’t work out for Phillips during his Bruins career as he battled numerous injuries and briefly retired from football. After his brief retirement, he decided to transfer to Miami last offseason, where he has had a breakout year. This season he has led the Hurricanes in both tackles for loss with 15.5 and also in sacks with eight.
As a 2021 NFL Draft prospect, Phillips displays nice potential with his quick first step and overall football intelligence. A red flag teams will have with him though is his long injury history, which will likely cause him to slide to the second round of the draft.
2021 NFL Draft prospects: Stock down
Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
The 2020 season was Basham’s worst season of his career as he saw a significant dip in tackles, sacks, and tackles for loss this season. While this dip can be attributed to the fact he only played in seven games, he also went from the All-ACC team in 2019 to the third team this year.
When watching the film he didn’t look like the player who had a mid-first round grade going into the season. At times, he looked disinterested in the game and was able to get pushed around by offensive linemen especially in the run game. His ability to play the run will be a major factor in where he is drafted as he lacks the speed you see out of a player like Miami’s Gregory Rousseau.
His outstanding weight room numbers should allow him to hold up better vs. the run as according to Bruce Feldman’s 2020 Freak List, Basham bench presses more than 400 pounds and squats more than 700 pounds. Overall, I could see a team taking Basham high in the second round due to his strong testing numbers and impressive 2019 film.
Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
Ohio State cornerback Shaun Wade was supposed to have a breakout season this year, having moved from a nickel cornerback to a starting role. However, the season did not go the way Wade wanted it to go as he had his troubles all season long and looked especially bad against Penn State and Indiana.
The trait that he seemed to lack which really hurt him is an ability to close any separation wide receivers got on him. He also was not the most physical corner in the Big Ten and could be beaten by bigger receivers at the catch point. The fact he struggled on the outside this year could force Wade to move to safety in the NFL, where he can match up more against tight ends in coverage.
Dylan Moses, MLB, Alabama
This has been a rough couple of years for Alabama linebacker Dylan Moses. In 2019, he suffered a torn ACL, which cost him the entire season, and this year he has had his struggles on the field. The area he has struggled the most is with instincts and overall play recognition.
In pass coverage, he has trouble locating the receiver and often ends up covering just space. He is also slow to recognize if a play is play-action or a run which often leads to him getting out of position.
Another concern Moses has is how much he struggles getting off blocks. Once an offensive tackle gets his hands on Moses the play is over, as he is routinely overpowered. Teams will like the athletic ability and closing speed Moses shows, and one of these teams will likely pick him in the third round area hoping they can transition his natural skills into a smarter player who can earn a starting job in the NFL.
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
You often won’t see two Alabama players on a list of prospects who are being overrated, but that is the case with Dylan Moses and Christian Barmore. While Barmore impresses with his outstanding power, size, and active hands he might not be the type of player the NFL values as much as they would have 10 to 15 years ago.
The main reason for this is he is more of a big-bodied defensive tackle (6-foot-5, 310 pounds), then a quick penetrating defender the NFL tends to prefer currently. While Barmore did lead the Tide in sacks this year with 6.5, I have a hard time seeing him put up this production in the NFL due to his average speed off the line of scrimmage and that he can only win with power.
I also worry about his high pad level which will allow NFL offensive lineman to neutralize his strength. When projecting Barnmore to the next level his best fit will probably be with a 3-4 defense that allows him to play nose tackle.
2021 NFL Draft Scouting Notes
-One of the more athletic linebackers in this year’s class is LSU’s, Jabril Cox. When watching his film it is impressive how smoothly he moves in the open field. He looks natural in coverage and in fact, was one of the leaders among linebackers in interceptions this year with three. In coverage, he shows both the speed to keep up with most opponents he sees, and the awareness to play zone coverage at a high level.
While he is stronger when it comes to defending the pass than stopping the run he does show the quickness to play sideline to sideline and is a strong tackler. In order to improve his game against the run, he is going to have to do a better job of fighting off blocks and play more physical overall.
-USC’s Talanoa Hufanga is one of the better strong safety prospects in the draft. What makes his game so appealing is his physical style of play. USC plays him close in the box when they go to a one safety look and this is where he has earned his reputation as one of the hardest hitters in the Pac-12. He shows great force when making a tackle and even displays the ability to switch to an outside linebacker role in the NFL. While he is not as strong in pass coverage he was able to lead the Pac-12 in interceptions this year with four.
His biggest issue in coverage is he lacks the fluid hips that allows a player to keep up with more swift wide receivers. Another concern teams might have with him is his physical style of play could lead to him being injury-plagued. A pro comparison Hufanga will surely draw is a larger Bob Sanders, as both players were great against the run and knew how to hit.
-One of the deepest positions in the 2021 NFL Draft is defensive end. The depth of this position will likely cause talent edge rushers to fall into the second, and one of the players likely to last until day two is Cincinnati defensive end Myjai Sanders. When evaluating Sanders the first thing that pops out is his impressive athletic ability. This ability allows him to get a great bend off the edge, and make plays in the open field.
He shows an outstanding burst off the line of scrimmage as well, which is one of the reasons he has recorded 10.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks in just nine games this year. One other positive with him is his high football intelligence. He shows great awareness when not able to get to the quarterback, which has allowed him to bat down five passes this year.
The biggest knock on him would be that while he does have great length coming in at 6-foot-5, he needs to bulk up from his current 258-pound weight. Cincinnati’s game against Georgia on January 1st will go a long way in determining where Sanders goes in the 2021 NFL Draft as it is his first action against a Power Five opponent this year.
-Despite having somewhat of a down year this year, look for Central Arkansas’s Robert Rochell to be one of the first FCS players drafted this year. The main reason he is so highly regarded by NFL general managers is his impressive athletic ability.
According to Bruce Feldman’s Freak List, Rochell has an 11-8 broad jump, 41-inch vertical jump, and runs the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds. If he can post anything close to these numbers at the NFL Combine he will be one of the most talked-about prospects of the week.
While 2020 was one of Rochell’s worst seasons of his career only recording three pass breakups and zero interceptions he had been one of the most productive defensive backs in the FCS previously. In 2019, he was named an FCS All-American after breaking up 13 passes and also having five interceptions. He was also able to pick off four balls in 2018 despite only starting eight games. It would not be shocking to see some team fall in love with the raw tools Rochell possesses and snag him early on day three.
-A player who will likely be undrafted to keep an eye on is Florida Atlantic linebacker Leighton McCarthy. The main reason he is an intriguing prospect is the production he has had in college. This past season he recorded nine sacks in just eight games. He has also been productive at defensive end and outside linebacker which should give a team some versatility of where to use him. McCarthy is the type of prospect who could have a chance at making it as a situational pass rusher, and someone who contributes on special teams.
-Inside the War Room each week highlights one prospect who will fall to at least the third day of the draft, yet has the potential to make an impact in the NFL. This week’s sleeper prospect is North Carolina Central cornerback Bryan Mills. What makes Mills such an intriguing prospect is his size, raw athletic ability, and ball skills.
Coming in at 6-foot-2, Mills has the size teams love to see, although he would be wise to add a few pounds to his 170-pound frame. He possesses the athletic ability to play at the next level as well. He has the fluid hips to hang with even smaller receivers, which is rare to see in bigger corners.
Mills also had numerous plays last year where he is making an athletic interception or play on the ball. Scouts will also be impressed with his overall ball skills as he finished the 2019 season with 13 pass breakups and five interceptions. While he does have the skills to be a contributor at the next level, the fact that he is still very raw when it comes to technique and played against a low level of competition will likely force him to at least the fifth round of the 2021 NLF Draft.