2021 NFL Draft: How much will opting out affect prospects?
2021 NFL Draft: How much will opting out affect prospects?
The 2021 NFL Draft class has plenty of time to take shape, but a number of big-name players declared themselves eligible before the 2020 season even began.
Most notable are projected top-15 picks like Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell, Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Miami EDGE Gregory Rousseau, and Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater.
There were plenty of other players who decided to opt-out after the NCAA seemingly scrambled by each conference to put together whatever kind of season they could in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and some players decided to do what they could to preserve their 2021 NFL Draft stock.
As far as any of us who are not in the NFL Draft preparation rooms of NFL franchises, their stock has been preserved.
Almost every one of those guys is landing in the top 15-20 picks of almost any mock draft you read, and based on their on-field performance, for good reason.
But how much does missing the 2020 season complicate their overall evaluation?
You obviously can’t hold it against players for opting out of the season due to the pandemic, but what about the impact of missing a full year of football?
Players can train and keep their bodies in shape, but almost every NFL athlete will tell you there’s a difference between being in shape and being in football shape.
By the time these guys get to an NFL training camp, it will have been at least a year-and-a-half since any of them has played in an actual football game. How much does that affect the evaluation process for NFL teams?
What compounds the complexity of these particular evaluations is the fact that NFL evaluators were not allowed on campuses this season as they typically are. Not only were these guys not practicing or playing, but the personal aspect of the evaluation was extremely limited, obviously.
In the case of a player like Rousseau, the evaluation is especially risky because he only has one year of tape to go off of. There are plenty of college players who have big seasons early on and don’t wind up being elite NFL prospects after three years on the field.
As NFL talent evaluators, how much do you worry about guys having a year away from the game voluntarily? How do you assess their progress?
Teams may need to do diligent work and research to find out over the course of their history how often year-to-year evaluations of guys change. For instance, if you evaluated a player as a first-round caliber player after their sophomore season, how often does their projection go down after their junior season?
Not that this is inherently a bad year to be hiring a new general manager, but seasoned units who have multiple years of evaluation on some of these prospects already will significantly benefit them compared to new front offices or even first-time GMs getting into a building with scouts and personnel directors who may have varying opinions on some of these guys.
How these young players show up to the NFL Scouting Combine in February will be crucial. The pre-draft interview and Pro Day scouting process will be as important as ever for NFL clubs to make informed decisions on these top prospects who have, to some degree, incomplete grades and 18 months away from the game by the start of the 2021 regular season.