2021 NFL Draft: Team-by-team storylines to watch this fall

AFC South

No DeAndre Hopkins, no problem? Texans still the favorite in the South.

The Texans made the biggest trade and head-scratcher this offseason after trading three-time All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for David Johnson, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round pick swap. Bill O’Brien has made interesting decisions during his time in charge in Houston, but the Hopkins trade will follow the Texans all season, especially as Deshaun Watson closes on a four-year, $160 million extension.

Despite the departure of Hopkins, the Texans enter the 2020 season as the favorites to win the AFC West for the seventh time in ten years. Houston didn’t make significant improvements this offseason, either through free agency or the draft with second-rounder, Ross Blacklock likely sharing time. Regardless, the Texans still possess the best quarterback in the division and bring back a healthy J.J. Watt.

Prediction: The AFC West has become Houston’s to lose for almost a decade now and not much looks to change this season. Despite the Hopkins trade, the Texans still bring the most stability in the division at coach and quarterback and have the talent to be a threat in the AFC.

If O’Brien can get the Texans to the next step with either a first-round bye or AFC Championship remains the question. Expect another nine to ten win season in Houston, while the Texans first and second-round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft belong to Miami following the Tunsil deal. 

Phillip Rivers chases a final chance at Super Bowl with a sneaky Indy team.

The 2019 Colts were rocked by Andrew Luck’s decision to announce his retirement heading into training camp last summer. After starting strong at 5-2, the Colts slumped to a 2-7 finish. The Colts had one of the most interesting offseason’s in the league, adding former Charger Phillip Rivers as a short-term holdover at quarterback.

While the Chargers struggled last season, Rivers still has something in the tank as the 38-year-old makes his final chase at a Super Bowl win behind one of the top offensive lines. T.Y. Hilton remains Indianapolis’s top playmaker with rookies Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor providing the Colts the young core of the future.

Prediction: Indianapolis looks to give the Texans the strongest challenge in the West this season. The Colts added offensive playmakers through the draft and traded their first-rounder for DeForest Buckner, giving the Colts a strong defensive front and talented secondary.

If the Colts fall short of a division title or playoff appearance, expect Indy to once again look at their next franchise quarterback. The Colts seem to find a way of getting the first overall spot with a “generational talent” available. 

Expectations are low in Jacksonville. Can this young group fill the void?

The Jaguars are entering the season as the odd on favorite to finish with the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Jacksonville moved on from Leonard Fournette, Yannick Ngakoue, Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye, leaving a very inexperienced team behind. While the Jags have a talented defense led by Josh Allen, K’Lavon Chaisson, and C.J. Henderson, their inexperience will be difficult to overcome in a strong divison.

Jacksonville will be led offensively by second-year quarterback, Gardner Minshew II who earned the role after a strong rookie season, taking over for Nick Foles. While Jacksonville lacks a playmaker in the backfield after releasing the former fourth overall pick, Minshew II has solid targets between D.J. Chark Jr., Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook, and rookie Laviska Shenault Jr.

Prediction: Inexperience and a general lack of game-changing ability will keep the Jaguars in the basement of the AFC South. While the Jaguars are marked as the favorite to finish with the worst record in the NFL, they should see growth between their young offensive and defensive talent.

Minshew II may not be the future but could be enough to tread at the 6-10 mark and a top five pick. With two first and second-round picks from the Rams, the Jaguars have the trade capital to take or move up as they continue towards a rebuild. 

Tannehill and Titans are out to prove last season’s success was not a fluke.

The Titans shocked the league going to New England and beating the Patriots in the playoffs. They followed up with a bigger upset the following week, knocking out the 14-2 Ravens in Baltimore. Tennessee’s offseason focused on keeping the core of the AFC finalist team intact and did so after resigning Ryan Tannehill to a four-year, $118 million extension and Derrick Henry to a four-year, $50 million extension.

The decision to resign Tannehill to a deal that features upwards of $90 million in guarantees will shape the Titans’ foreseeable future. Tennessee’s decision to move on from Mariota proved wise and Tannehill’s 2019 season was the strongest in his career, setting a career-high in completion percentage and leading the league in completion percentage, quarterback rating, and average attempt per pass.

Prediction: It’s difficult to look past Tannehill and the Titans’ success last season. Tennessee finished as one of the strongest teams in the league, but cannot rely on Henry alone if they expect to be a challenger in the AFC. The Titans finish near the 7-9 mark, outside of the playoffs and should be in a prime position to address key departures on both sides of the ball through the 2021 NFL Draft.