Which top 2021 NFL Draft prospects could opt-out of a delayed 2020 college season?
Bruce Feldman recently had a fascinating piece published on The Athletic (subscription required) taking a look at what some college coaches, including Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, thought about the possible domino effect of a delayed college football season in 2020.
There exists a possibility if not probability that the 2020 college football season will not happen on time, if even in 2020 or at all.
Feldman’s post outlines a variety of topics, not the least of which is an idea from Oklahoma Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley of accepting the 2021 NFL Draft-related consequences and having the “2020” college football season, even an abbreviated version, sometime in the Spring of 2021.
According to Feldman’s report, coaches expecting not to find favor with the idea actually ended up liking it and thinking it could work, but delaying the 2020 college season to the Spring of 2021 brings along with it some serious complications in terms of college teams having to adjust to losing players who have established their 2021 NFL Draft stock.
Some schools will be hurt more than others, of course, and 10 of the coaches Feldman polled felt like two or less of their players would even consider leaving for the NFL early without a 2020 season.
Two of the coaches polled felt as though no fewer than eight players would consider it.
This is equal parts troubling and fascinating to think about. Troubling because the reason this is being discussed is a global pandemic that is hitting the United States in a strong second wave, and fascinating because this kind of situation affecting everyone in the country is having unprecedented ramifications on the sports world.
What if the college season is eventually delayed to the Spring of 2021? Which players would be the most likely to opt-out and enter the 2021 NFL Draft?
Let’s take a look at the candidates from each position group.
Quarterback
- Justin Fields, Ohio State
- Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Although you could make a significant case here for North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, whose stock is seemingly soaring the more he’s discovered by the masses, I think there are two quarterbacks in college football right now who are more likely than the rest to leave school without playing a 2020 season:
Trevor Lawrence of Clemson and Justin Fields of Ohio State.
Right now, any 2021 mock draft you can find around the web is pretty consistently predicting these two guys to be the top two picks in the draft, and if not, they’re both going top three.
Fields has just one year of full-time starting experience at Ohio State, but he’s proven his tremendous talent as both a passer and runner.
Lawrence has looked NFL-ready since he was a high school player, basically, and it seems rare for a player with his kind of pre-college hype to live up to the high standard everyone else had set for him so quickly.
Lawrence doesn’t really have many weaknesses to his game and even showed an expanded ability to make plays with his legs last season at Clemson.
Would these two guys, who could both be contenders for the top overall pick, really go back to school to play an abbreviated version of the 2020 season?
I don’t think so.
Running Backs
- Travis Etienne, Clemson
- Najee Harris, Alabama
- Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State
Travis Etienne of Clemson and Najee Harris were two players who, frankly, surprised me by coming back to school this year in the first place.
Of course, they had no way of knowing what would happen in the months that would follow the 2019 college football season but had they gotten any sort of inkling, I think for sure those two players would have been in the 2020 NFL Draft and I think they would have both been top 50 picks.
Etienne, in particular, probably could have gone in round one, and with the Chiefs prioritizing Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round, Najee Harris might have gone quite a bit higher than anyone suspects, also.
Chuba Hubbard rushed for over 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns last season for Oklahoma State. Even as a redshirt sophomore, he could have probably been a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft as well.
I think, as usual, the skill position groups offensively could be the ones with the most early entrants, especially in a scenario like this. Players who surprised by going back to school in the first place, in particular, would be way less likely to return to school to play in a Spring 2021 season with the 2021 NFL Draft beckoning.
Wide Receivers
- Ja’Marr Chase, LSU
- DeVonta Smith, Alabama
- Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
- Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
- Rondale Moore, Purdue
- Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Among plenty of others, and piggy-backing off of what I said on the running back slide, I think the wide receiver position would join running back as one to have the most players opt-out of a delayed 2020 season.
Ja’Marr Chase is coming off of an other-worldly season at LSU where he somehow averaged over 21 yards per reception. He looks like a future NFL star and even with just one big season of production, he would probably be a top 10 pick in next year’s draft.
DeVonta Smith could have been a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft had he declared, along with his Alabama teammates Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy.
Tylan Wallace got hurt last season at Oklahoma State, but was on a tremendous pace before that. The same could be said of Purdue’s Rondale Moore. Players who were injured last season and came back to rehab their injuries and draft stock would almost certainly not risk getting hurt in a Spring season and missing out on the 2021 NFL Draft.
Tight End
- Kyle Pitts, Florida
- Pat Freiermuth, Penn State
The potential of the 2021 NFL Draft class at tight end is tremendous, but there are a lot of guys who probably need at least one more season before they can solidify their NFL Draft stock.
There are, as always, a couple of exceptions.
I think the two primary exceptions here are Florida’s Kyle Pitts and Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth.
Pitts is a fascinating player to watch with the ability to play and experience in-line, flexed out, and pretty much everywhere else in the Florida offense. He’s a player who can truly line up anywhere in your offense and make plays.
Freiermuth is a different type of athlete, but highly productive and in a similar boat in terms of his positional flexibility within an offense.
Both of these guys seem like pretty sure bets for the NFL as far as their instant translatability.
Offensive Line
- Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
- Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
- Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State
- Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma
The 2021 NFL Draft class is looking nice and top-heavy with some really good prospects at tackle, guard, and center.
Penei Sewell is considered maybe the best offensive tackle prospect to come from the college ranks for sure since Joe Thomas and possibly in the last 20-30 years.
Alex Leatherwood was a consistent first-round projection for the 2020 NFL Draft, and even without another season at left tackle, that’s probably not changing for the 2021 NFL Draft.
Wyatt Davis of Ohio State and Creed Humphrey out of Oklahoma are probably the two guys everyone is looking at right now as the top interior offensive line prospects in the 2021 class rather unanimously.
Defensive Line
- Marvin Wilson, Florida State
Looking through the list of available defensive linemen for the 2021 NFL Draft, it’s anyone’s guess as to which players would opt-out of a delayed 2020 season, but one player seems more likely than the rest: Florida State’s Marvin Wilson.
Despite an injury cutting short his junior season at FSU, Wilson appeared poised for first-round status in the 2020 NFL Draft.
He’s an absolute monster on the interior defensive line with burst off the snap and excellent athleticism for a player of his stature.
A big-time prospect since his high school days, Wilson would certainly be an upgrade to many teams’ defensive lines immediately in the NFL.
Edge
- Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL)
- Carlos Basham, Wake Forest
Frankly, the current crop of edge players in college football has a lot to prove.
Even Gregory Rousseau, who is widely considered at this point to be the top edge player in the 2021 NFL Draft, is not even close right now to the same level as a Chase Young in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The upside is there, certainly.
Ultimately, I think the edge class of 2021 would be greatly diminished with a lack of a 2020 season, or even just a delay with guys able to put themselves on display for a handful of games.
Carlos Basham is an experienced player for Wake Forest who has established himself as one of the top edge players in the ACC, but has he done enough to be a top 32 pick?
It could wind up being that the edge and defensive line have very few players who would choose to opt-out of a delayed season.
Linebacker
- Micah Parsons, Penn State
- Dylan Moses, Alabama
At the linebacker position, Micah Parsons is NFL-ready today, forget about the 2021 NFL Draft.
Watching this guy play is like watching an NFL player play in the Ivy League.
I have little doubt that if the 2020 college season is delayed or canceled, he’s going to be entering the 2021 NFL Draft.
The same could be true of Dylan Moses, who probably could have been a high pick in the 2020 NFL Draft even with a lost 2019 season due to injury.
Moses could consider going back to Alabama to try and prove his health and get a bit more tape out there for teams, but the majority of people seem to believe he has top ILB potential whenever he decides to leave school, even if the last time he played was in 2018.
Defensive Backs
- Shaun Wade, Ohio State (CB)
- Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech (CB)
- Patrick Surtain II, Alabama (CB)
I think there’s plenty of gray area with the defensive back group eligible for the 2021 NFL Draft. I think just about everyone would like to see more of the players eligible to be able to say for certain which ones are first-round worthy, but these three players have enough out there for NFL teams to make educated decisions on.
In particular, Shaun Wade is a guy who has shown inside-outside versatility, aggressiveness, tremendous instincts, ball skills, and then some.
I think Wade would have easily been a first-rounder in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Caleb Farley has gained a lot of hype the more people have watched him in the 2020 offseason as a possible CB1 candidate for the 2021 NFL Draft.
Patrick Surtain was a big-time high school prospect who has lived up to the hype in his first couple of seasons at Alabama, and with his current fast track to the pros, I don’t think he would play in a shortened or delayed season.