Quarterback Trey Lance scouting report, 2021 NFL Draft analysis

2020 Outlook

It is interesting to consider whether Lance will even declare for the 2021 NFL Draft. College football players rarely enter the draft after their sophomore season and FCS players in particular even less so.

However, if Lance can improve upon his 2019 season and keep NFL decision-makers intrigued in 2020, it would behoove Lance to enter the 2021 NFL Draft while the interest is strong. It will be tough for him to reenact his success from last season, as throwing zero interceptions in two seasons straight will be difficult to accomplish.

https://twitter.com/NDSUfootball/status/1220119209168003077

Playing in the FCS will always leave some draft analysts skeptical of Lance, so long as he only plays against other FCS teams. He will get an excellent opportunity in 2020 to put a feather in his metaphorical cap in the season opener this year. The North Dakota State Bison will face the Oregon Ducks in the first game of the regular season in 2020. This will be an incredible opportunity for Lance to prove he can succeed against a higher level of competition, thus assuaging fears he is only successful against other FCS schools.

The Bison have a good track record against FBS programs. In 2016, The Bison defeated the 13th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes in an upset. Just a few months after Wentz was drafted in the first round, the victory catapulted the Bison into the national conversation and helped bring North Dakota plenty of football admiration. If Lance and the Bison find similar success against their Week One adversaries, you can believe a similar thing will happen.

A victory against Oregon would help Lance build a national reputation as a sleeper moving up the 2021 NFL Draft rankings. You can expect several NFL scouts will be present at this game, with even more watching the film afterward, looking to see how well he does against FBS defenders. If Lance does hope to declare for the 2021 NFL Draft, a victory against Oregon would elevate his chances of being drafted early in next year’s draft. The Oregon season opener could be the most important game in Lance’s college career. The NCAA was smart for scheduling such a pivotal matchup on the opening week.

Besides winning the Oregon game, the goal will be the same as it is every season for the Bison: dominate the FCS and fight for another championship. The odds of Lance repeating the same kind of success he had in 2019 will be stacked against him. But it isn’t impossible to think this team could do it.

In 2020, Lance should be working on his intermediate accuracy when passing, while also looking for more opportunities to throw rather than run the ball. Despite an incredible first year with the Bison, Lance only passed 287 times, according to Fox Sports. That is not enough of a sample size to truly evaluate Lance as a quarterback. To get general managers fighting to draft him, Lance will need to show he can be an effective, consistent passer at all levels of the field.

General managers will want to see more passing opportunities for Lance this season before considering him in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lance may be a phenomenal runner, having found success since high school running the ball himself. But if general managers are expected to make him the face of their franchise, Lance will have to prove he can win games solely with his arm.

If Lance can beat Oregon and rack up more completions during the upcoming season, there is a very good chance he could compete with Fields for the second-overall quarterback spot in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has the arm strength, pocket presence and play-making abilities to lead an NFL franchise. But another season of success in the FCS could elevate him to Wentz-levels of success in North Dakota, increasing his chances of being drafted early next year.

If the interest remains strong by the end of the 2020 season, don’t be surprised if he enters the 2021 NFL Draft as a sophomore. It isn’t often sophomores get drafted in the NFL. But then again, it isn’t often a first-year quarterback throws zero interceptions and wins every game. Expect to hear Lance’s name often this upcoming season as a draft prospect in 2021.