Quarterback Trey Lance scouting report, 2021 NFL Draft analysis

Lance Film Review

(Butler VS North Dakota State, 2019; James Madison VS North Dakota State, 2019 FCS Championship)

With the impressive combination of 2,786 yards passing and over 1,000 yards on the ground, Lance looks to have all the skills needed to be a 2021 NFL Draft sleeper. But considering the history of excellent recruitment at North Dakota State, it is fair to wonder how much of Lance’s success is from the excellent roster and coaching staff around him. For this reason, we must do a deep dive into game footage from 2019 and document the things Lance does well and the things he doesn’t do so well.

Arm Strength

Lance has an excellent arm and is able to rocket the ball downfield at will. This is by far the most impressive tool Lance has in the quarterback toolkit and it allows him to open up coverages downfield by making defenses commit to all levels of the field. Besides going undefeated in 2019, Lance’s highlight reel from the 2019 FCS playoffs is likely a driving factor of the draft hype swarming around him this offseason.

Lance will burn defensive backs if a defense lets one of his receivers past them. He can quickly analyze the field after the snap and trusts his receivers to make plays downfield. When making a deep pass, Lance has the ability to extend his body, maximizing his arm strength for those deep downfield bombs he throws. Lance clearly has faith in his arm, as he is willing to trust his receivers much further downfield than necessary for a first down.

His most impressive deep throw during the 2019 Butler game happened in the first quarter at the 8:07 mark. At the Butler 47-yard line, Lance launches the ball down the field for his left outside wide receiver for a 47-yard touchdown. Not only did he find the receiver right where he needed to be, but he also gave the ball enough time in the air to allow his receiver to get there.

Nearly every deep pass Lance threw this game was deep enough to be catchable, which shows he has the strength to drive the ball downfield. On most deep passes Lance threw in these games, he showed anticipation as well, expecting his receiver to be where they needed to be for a big gain. His vertical passing game is by far the most valuable trait he has and the most NFL-ready.

Pocket Presence

Like his arm strength, Lance shows excellent pocket presence and can escape if need be, by either rolling out to his right or tucking the ball. Whether he is under center or in shotgun, Lance will check the defensive line a few times before snapping the ball, watching for extra pressure off the edge, relaying information to his blockers. When pressure does breach the offensive line, Lance does a good job of sidestepping those defenders, constantly moving his feet.

In the Butler game, it is somewhat difficult to discern Lance’s ability to see and feel the pressure. The Bison offensive line did a great job in this game keeping Lance clean from pressure. During the handful of times that Lance did have a defender bearing down on him, Lance did a good job of exiting the pocket.

At 1:18 of the first quarter, a Butler defender lined up as an outside linebacker blitzed Lance off a play-action snap, with his back turned towards the defender. Breaking free of his blocker, the defender had a clear path to Lance, in a play that should have resulted in a sack. But instead, Lance does a good job of shuffling his feet backward while keeping his eyes downfield and gets the ball out before he can be sacked to an open receiver.

The completion itself wasn’t for a significant amount of yards, but that is beside the point. It showed good pocket presence and ability to escape the pressure and play out of structure. Lance does this a few more times in the Butler game, where he is able to get the ball out just as a defender is closing in on him.

His propensity to roll to the right out of pressure is mildly predictable and possibly a tendency defensive coordinators can take advantage of in the NFL. But overall, Lance has the ability to judge the speed of the defender and hold on to the ball as long as he can. The fact that, as a redshirt freshman, he is willing to step into pressure on a pass is impressive.

Quarterback Run

As a dual-threat quarterback, Lance does a great job finding yards on the ground. This is aided by the offense’s use of play-action passes, which forces linebackers and safeties back into coverage and clears routes for the young quarterback to run.

According to Fox Sports Gamelog, Lance rushed for 116 yards during the Butler game, which is the most he ran all season. Each run averaged 16.8 yards in that game, which is the second most average rush yards per play he had all season. His 2019 season average was 9.7 yards per running play, which also made him the lead rusher for the Bison last season, according to GoBison.com.

While this kind of production shouldn’t be expected every game, it is impressive to see the way he manipulates the defense after the snap, allowing him to sidestep defenders at the line of scrimmage.

However, it is difficult to know how much of this production should be accredited to Lance. His offensive line did a fantastic job at the line of scrimmage opening up lanes for Lance. On top that, his offensive line and running backs did a good job moving upfield with Lance, intercepting linebackers and safeties as he runs downfield.

Lance is a great runner, who can hit a second level of speed once he has been running for a bit. He is willing to lower his shoulders and take on defenders that reach for him. Lance can be a little apprehensive when deciding to take off with the ball, which is concerning. His feet tend to stop moving before he runs, but so far this does not seem to have caused him any problems when rushing. Still, against better defenders, Lance might not be so lucky.

His feet are fast-moving and while not a power runner who can juke defenders efficiently, for a quarterback he does a good job. Lance is elusive, can tempo his speed to allow teammates time to block and is exceptionally fast once he hits the open field.

The main caveat with his rushing production comes from the fact he is facing pretty poor opposition throughout the game. Multiple times during the Butler game, defenders closing in on Lance failed to tackle him properly. Instead, the defenders seemed to favor either shoulder checking Lance or attempting an arm tackle on him. Something Lance does a good job in disrupting, allowing him to get yards after contact.

In the 2021 NFL Draft, many general managers will be drafting Lance because he was so productive in rushing the ball. During the 2019 FCS Championship game against James Madison, Lance rushed an incredible 30 times for 166 yards. But all those yards are on the back on poor tackling. And while tackling effectiveness has been on a downward spiral in the NFL recently, Lance is unlikely to face such poor tackling in the pros.

Accuracy/Placement

With a completion percentage over 66 percent in 2019, accuracy might not seem at first to be a problem for Lance. But after watching the Butler game, you can start to see a trend where Lance is consistently accurate passing deep while intermediate passes can be inconsistent play to play.

His best work comes when throwing into the end zone. Lance has the weird knack of being super accurate in red-zone situations, something scouts will find intriguing in the 2021 NFL Draft evaluations. Whether his receiver is open or covered, Lance does a good job of placing the ball in the end zone, passing the football right to where his receiver can catch it. According to the team’s stat page, the offense scored 54 touchdowns on 64 trips to the red zone in 2019, an 83 percent success rate.

Lance’s short passes are accurate as well, being able to find his receivers while in motion or stationary with a high level of accuracy. The intermediate level of the field is where Lance seems to have a hard time finding his receiver at times. On several occasions, the receiver caught the ball low or to the side of his body, forcing them to stop and recover their footing before taking off. While the pass was still a success, you can see several times where the receiver lost yards after the catch because of this awkward reception.

https://twitter.com/NDSUfootball/status/1216113292843896837

Lance prefers to pass the ball deep, as there were several occasions in the Butler game where he overlooked open receivers at the short and intermediate level of the field for an offensive player deep who was being covered. How important this is in his evaluation is hard to say. During some of these occasions, the Bison were leading by 17 or more points. Taking a chance like that can be a smart decision, based on the circumstances. But during the FCS Championship highlight reel, there are a few occasions where Lance does this early in the game when the score is still close.

There is clearly a level of trust between Lance and his receivers, as he seems confident in his playmakers to come down with the ball on deep passes. On several passes that were incompletions, Lance consistently overthrew his receivers instead of underthrowing them. Many of the cornerbacks defending the Bison receivers were clearly outmatched, as receivers were able to consistently find separation from their defenders.

While some of these completions were to wide-open receivers, there are also several occasions where Lance finds a receiver in a tight window throw. During the Butler game (second quarter, 12:30) Lance throws to a receiver in a contested-catch situation, delivering the ball right into the hands of his receiver over the head of the cornerback. And while the pass is batted away, it showed how precise Lance could be from over 30-yards away. It was by far the most impressive pass Lance threw all game.

In the NFL, Lance will have a much harder time passing to receivers when they are more evenly matched with their defenders. North Dakota averaged 37.25 points per game in 2019, so the expectation Lance would repeat that success in the NFL is doubtful. But improving his accuracy to the intermediate part of the field will only help Lance’s 2021 NFL Draft prospects.